Adding £2.3bn of debt to the accounts – social housing deregulation as an early test for the minority Welsh Government

Before the elections to the Welsh Assembly last week, Steffan Evans outlined how housing might be a key policy area around which bridges could be built in the Senedd. With the results now confirmed, we know Labour will need to work with other parties, but what will be the biggest issues facing the First Minister Carwyn Jones when it comes to housing? A major policy test will almost certainly be provided by the new classification of social housing

The Welsh Assembly after the elections: housing policy could be an area upon which to build a coalition

With the Welsh elections now only days away, the race to the National Assembly is entering its closing stages, writes Steffan Evans. With opinion polls continuing to suggest that no one party will gain sufficient votes to hold a majority in the Senedd, attention is sure to turn to potential coalitions after May the 5th

How extending the right to buy in England could change the relationship between the government and housing associations

In this article, Steffan Evans looks at how the extension of Right to Buy in England could alter the relationship between the government, the regulator and Housing Associations in England, and compares the situation in England with the situation in Wales

Semi detached? The development of divergence in social housing regulation between Wales and England

This thesis offers the first detailed assessment of the legislative and regulatory differences that have developed between Wales and England, in the social housing context, since the establishment of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999. The development of policy and legislative variation between the nations of the UK remains an underexplored aspect of devolution in the UK. This thesis aims to help fill this gap within the existing legal, socio-legal and policy literature on devolution and divergence. In undertaking this exploration, the thesis also seeks to make a contribution to the literature on housing law and policy. In exploring patterns of divergence in social housing regulation between Wales and England, the thesis sets out to address four key issues. First, the thesis seeks to identify the timing of divergence between Wales and England. Secondly, it explores the legislative provisions in place today, and assesses the existence and extent of differences between both nations. Thirdly, the thesis considers the impact of legislative and regulatory differences in practice. Fourthly, it examines the factors that have impacted upon the divergence process. The thesis uses a mixed methods approach in analysing the issues above. These methods include semi-structured interviews, doctrinal analysis, textual analysis, content analysis and an exploration of archival material. Deploying this range of methods means that the thesis makes a broader contribution to the literature on devolution and social housing. Amongst the key findings of the thesis is the identification, for the first of the point at which powers over housing were first devolved to Wales, and a development in our understanding of the complicated way in which divergence develops. The thesis concludes by reflecting on how these, and other findings, impact upon our understanding of devolution in Wales, and by discussing the implications for contemporary devolution and housing debates

Automated registration of multimodal optic disc images: clinical assessment of alignment accuracy

Purpose: To determine the accuracy of automated alignment algorithms for the registration of optic disc images obtained by 2 different modalities: fundus photography and scanning laser tomography. Materials and Methods: Images obtained with the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II and paired photographic optic disc images of 135 eyes were analyzed. Three state-of-the-art automated registration techniques Regional Mutual Information, rigid Feature Neighbourhood Mutual Information (FNMI), and nonrigid FNMI (NRFNMI) were used to align these image pairs. Alignment of each composite picture was assessed on a 5-point grading scale: “Fail” (no alignment of vessels with no vessel contact), “Weak” (vessels have slight contact), “Good” (vessels with 50% contact), and “Excellent” (complete alignment). Custom software generated an image mosaic in which the modalities were interleaved as a series of alternate 5×5-pixel blocks. These were graded independently by 3 clinically experienced observers. Results: A total of 810 image pairs were assessed. All 3 registration techniques achieved a score of “Good” or better in >95% of the image sets. NRFNMI had the highest percentage of “Excellent” (mean: 99.6%; range, 95.2% to 99.6%), followed by Regional Mutual Information (mean: 81.6%; range, 86.3% to 78.5%) and FNMI (mean: 73.1%; range, 85.2% to 54.4%). Conclusions: Automated registration of optic disc images by different modalities is a feasible option for clinical application. All 3 methods provided useful levels of alignment, but the NRFNMI technique consistently outperformed the others and is recommended as a practical approach to the automated registration of multimodal disc images

Antagonistic interactions between an invasive alien and a native coccinellid species may promote coexistence

1. Despite the capacity of invasive alien species to alter ecosystems, the mechanisms underlying their impact remain only partly understood. Invasive alien predators, for example, can significantly disrupt recipient communities by consuming prey species or acting as an intraguild predator (IGP). 2. Behavioural interactions are key components of interspecific competition between predators,yet these are often overlooked invasion processes. Here, we show how behavioural, nonlethal IGP interactions might facilitate the establishment success of an invading alien species. 3. We experimentally assessed changes in feeding behaviour (prey preference and consumption rate) of native UK coccinellid species (Adalia bipunctata and Coccinella septempunctata),whose populations are, respectively, declining and stable, when exposed to the invasive intraguild predator, Harmonia axyridis. Using a population dynamics model parameterized with these experimental data, we predicted how intraguild predation, accommodating interspecific behavioural interactions, might impact the abundance of the native and invasive alien species over time. 4. When competing for the same aphid resource, the feeding rate of A. bipunctata significantly increased compared to the feeding in isolation, while the feeding rate of H. axyridis significantly decreased. This suggests that despite significant declines in the UK, A. bipunctata is a superior competitor to the intraguild predator H. axyridis. In contrast, the behaviour of non-declining C. septempunctata was unaltered by the presence of H. axyridis. 5. Our experimental data show the differential behavioural plasticity of competing native and invasive alien predators, but do not explain A. bipunctata declines observed in the UK. Using behavioural plasticity as a parameter in a population dynamic model for A. bipunctata and H. axyridis, coexistence is predicted between the native and invasive alien following an initial period of decline in the native species. We demonstrate how empirical and theoretical techniques can be combined to understand better the processes and consequences of alien species invasions for native biodiversity

Exploring the predation of UK bumblebees (Apidae, Bombus spp.) by the invasive pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea: examining the effects of annual variation, seasonal variation, plant density and bumblebee gender

Invasive carnivorous plant species can impact the native invertebrate communities on which they prey. This article explores the predation of native UK bumblebees (Bombus spp.) by the invasive pitcher plant species Sarracenia purpurea and discusses the potential effect of S. purpurea on native bumblebees. Specifically, it evaluates whether the extent to which bumblebees are captured varies (i) over successive years, (ii) across June and July, (iii) with density of distribution of pitchers or (iv) with bumblebee gender. Pitcher contents were examined from an established population of Sarracenia purpurea growing in Dorset, UK. Results show that the total extent to which bumblebees were captured differed over the years 2012–2014 inclusive. A 1-year study in 2013 showed that more bumblebees were caught in July than in June and more bumblebees were captured when pitchers grew at high density. Results from 2013 also showed that more pitchers caught more than one bumblebee than would be expected based on a normal probability distribution and that this phenomenon affects female and male bumblebees equally. We discuss possible reasons for these results including that the bumblebees may be using S. purpurea as a resource. Further work is required to establish the exact underpinning mechanisms and the relative roles of plant and bumblebee behaviour within the relationship. Such interaction complexity may have consequences for consideration in invasive carnivorous plant management

Glacier-bed geomorphic processes and hydrologic conditions relevant to nuclear waste disposal

Characterizing glaciotectonic deformation, glacial erosion and sedimentation, and basal hydrologic conditions of ice sheets is vital for selecting sites for nuclear waste repositories at high latitudes. Glaciotectonic deformation is enhanced by excess pore pressures that commonly persist near ice sheet margins. Depths of such deformation can extend locally to a few tens of meters, with depths up to approximately 300 m in exceptional cases. Rates of glacial erosion are highly variable (0.05–15 mm a−1), but ratesa−1 are expected in tectonically quiescent regions. Total erosion probably not exceeding several tens of meters is expected during a glacial cycle, although locally erosion could be greater. Consolidation of glacial sediments that is less than expected from independent estimates of glacier thickness indicates that heads at the bases of past ice sheets were usually within 30% of the floatation value. This conclusion is reinforced by direct measurements of water pressure beneath portions of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which indicate average headsbed, despite thick ice at subfreezing temperatures. Therefore, in models of subglacial groundwater flow used to assess sites for nuclear waste repositories, a flux upper boundary condition based on water input from only basal melting will be far more uncertain than applying a hydraulic head at the upper boundary set equal to a large fraction of the floatation value

Defining sepsis on the wards: results of a multi-centre point-prevalence study comparing two sepsis definitions

Our aim was to prospectively determine the predictive capabilities of SEPSIS-1 and SEPSIS-3 definitions in the emergency departments and general wards. Patients with National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of 3 or above and suspected or proven infection were enrolled over a 24-h period in 13 Welsh hospitals. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 30 days. Out of the 5422 patients screened, 431 fulfilled inclusion criteria and 380 (88%) were recruited. Using the SEPSIS-1 definition, 212 patients had sepsis. When using the SEPSIS-3 definitions with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2, there were 272 septic patients, whereas with quickSOFA score ≥ 2, 50 patients were identified. For the prediction of primary outcome, SEPSIS-1 criteria had a sensitivity (95%CI) of 65% (54–75%) and specificity of 47% (41–53%); SEPSIS-3 criteria had a sensitivity of 86% (76–92%) and specificity of 32% (27–38%). SEPSIS-3 and SEPSIS-1 definitions were associated with a hazard ratio (95%CI) 2.7 (1.5–5.6) and 1.6 (1.3–2.5), respectively. Scoring system discrimination evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves was highest for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0.69 (95%CI 0.63–0.76)), followed by NEWS (0.58 (0.51–0.66)) (p < 0.001). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (0.55 (0.49–0.61)) and quickSOFA score (0.56 (0.49–0.64)) could not predict outcome. The SEPSIS-3 definition identified patients with the highest risk. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and NEWS were better predictors of poor outcome. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score appeared to be the best tool for identifying patients with high risk of death and sepsis-induced organ dysfunction

Dimensions of biodiversity loss: spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees

Aim Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity. Location One Thousand four hundred and forty six sites across Europe. Methods We collated data on bee occurrence and abundance from the published literature and supplemented them with the PREDICTS database. Using Rao's Quadratic Entropy, we assessed how species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of 1,446 bee communities respond to land-use characteristics including land-use class, cropland intensity, human population density and distance to roads. We combined these models with statistically downscaled estimates of land use in 2005 to estimate and map—at a scale of approximately 1 km2—the losses in diversity relative to semi-natural/natural baseline (the predicted diversity of an uninhabited grid square, consisting only of semi-natural/natural vegetation). Results We show that—relative to the predicted local diversity in uninhabited semi-natural/natural habitat—half of all EU27 countries have lost over 10% of their average local species diversity and two-thirds of countries have lost over 5% of their average local functional and phylogenetic diversity. All diversity measures were generally lower in pasture and higher-intensity cropland than in semi-natural/natural vegetation, but facets of diversity showed less consistent responses to human population density. These differences have led to marked spatial mismatches in losses: losses in phylogenetic diversity were in some areas almost 20 percentage points (pp.) more severe than losses in species diversity, but in other areas losses were almost 40 pp. less severe. Main conclusions These results highlight the importance of exploring multiple measures of diversity when prioritizing and evaluating conservation actions, as species-diverse assemblages may be phylogenetically and functionally impoverished, potentially threatening pollination service provision