Stereological analysis of mitochondria in embryos of Rana temporaria and Bufo bufo during cleavage

Total numbers of mitochondria and their morphology have been quantitatively determined in mature oocytes and in cleaving embryos of two anuran species Rana temporaria and Bufo bufo using stereological methods. Surface densities of inner mitochondrial membranes for both studied species during cleavage ranged from 5.43 m2/cm3 to 7.53 m2/cm3, whereas volume densities of mitochondria did not exceed 1.65%. Since values of these parameters were low, thus embryos during cleavage may be considered as metabolically "silent". Transition of ultrastructural morphology of mitochondria towards that characterising actively respiring organelles occurs at stage 9 for R. temporaria and at stage 8 for B. bufo, correlated with blastula-gastrula and mid-blastula transition, respectively. The total numbers of mitochondria N(c) in mature oocytes are as high as 114.8 and 107.2 millions for R. temporaria and B. bufo, respectively, and during cleavage at late blastula stages they increase to 300 millions for both species under study. We suggest that an undefined mechanism might eliminate during cleavage those amphibian embryos which contain small number of mitochondria and low levels of nutrient substances

Lipid content in pig blastocysts cultured in the presence or absence of protein and vitamin E or phenazine ethosulfate

In the present study, total lipid content and content of triglycerides, phospholipids and cholesterol were determined in pig blastocysts cultured in medium without protein, supplemented with bovine serum albumin (BSA), with fetal calf serum (FCS), vitamin E or phenazine ethosulfate (PES). In comparison to blastocysts cultured in NCSU-23 with BSA, we observed a decrease of the total lipid content in PES-treated embryos. Triglyceride content in FCS-, vitamin E- and PES-treated embryos as well as in blastocysts cultured without protein was 81.9%, 70.2%, 57.2% and 74.8% of that found in the blastocysts cultured in NCSU-23 with BSA, respectively. Nevertheless the content of phospholipids remained unchanged. This decrease of triglyceride content in the porcine blastocyst after in vitro culture may be explained by altered lipid metabolism in embryos

Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors

Meaningful quantification of data and structural uncertainties in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling is a major scientific and engineering challenge. This paper focuses on the total predictive uncertainty and its decomposition into input and structural components under different inference scenarios. Several Bayesian inference schemes are investigated, differing in the treatment of rainfall and structural uncertainties, and in the precision of the priors describing rainfall uncertainty. Compared with traditional lumped additive error approaches, the quantification of the total predictive uncertainty in the runoff is improved when rainfall and/or structural errors are characterized explicitly. However, the decomposition of the total uncertainty into individual sources is more challenging. In particular, poor identifiability may arise when the inference scheme represents rainfall and structural errors using separate probabilistic models. The inference becomes ill‐posed unless sufficiently precise prior knowledge of data uncertainty is supplied; this ill‐posedness can often be detected from the behavior of the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Moreover, the priors on the data quality must also be sufficiently accurate if the inference is to be reliable and support meaningful uncertainty decomposition. Our findings highlight the inherent limitations of inferring inaccurate hydrologic models using rainfall‐runoff data with large unknown errors. Bayesian total error analysis can overcome these problems using independent prior information. The need for deriving independent descriptions of the uncertainties in the input and output data is clearly demonstrated.Benjamin Renard, Dmitri Kavetski, George Kuczera, Mark Thyer, and Stewart W. Frank

1st TRIMIS Horizon Scanning Session

The Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) is an open-access transport policy-support tool developed and managed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to support the implementation of the Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA). One of the main objectives of TRIMIS is to provide a forward-oriented support to transport research and innovation (R&I) governance by using foresight in its technological and socioeconomic assessment process related to transport R&I. Within the TRIMIS framework, horizon scanning is applied through a structured and systematic collaborative exercise that contributes to the identification of new and emerging transport-related technologies and trends, with a potential future impact on the transport sector. Furthermore, it supports the assessment of current and future research needs and provides transport related insights to the broader European Commission foresight system contributing to a higher-level strategic framework also covering the transport domain. As part of this process, on 26 September 2019 the TRIMIS team, with support from the Unit for Knowledge Management and the EU Policy Lab of the JRC organised a sense making session entitled the 1st TRIMIS Horizon Scanning Session. It aimed at gathering insights from various transport experts with different backgrounds and make sense of previously collected, transport-related horizon scanning items through a process that could provide indications on relevant trends, new drivers of change, weak signals, discontinuities or shocks/’wild cards’/sudden unexpected events/’black swans’. This report collects and analyses the experiences that were shared and discussed during the session along with the supplementary material and initial results. Furthermore, it acts as a first input to the next step of the TRIMIS Horizon Scanning process that will involve policymakers with a focus on transport R&I.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods

Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace

Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures

Many different performance measures have been developed to evaluate field predictions in meteorology. However, a researcher or practitioner encountering a new or unfamiliar measure may have difficulty in interpreting its results, which may lead to them avoiding new measures and relying on those that are familiar. In the context of evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications, this article aims to promote the use of a range of performance measures. Some of the types of performance measures that are introduced in order to demonstrate a six-step approach to tackle a new measure. Using the example of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation predictions for the Danube floods of July and August 2002, to show how to use new performance measures with this approach and the way to choose between different performance measures based on their suitability for the task at hand is shown. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Societ

Security and defence research in the European Union: a landscape review

This landscape report describes the state of play of the European Union’s policies and activities in security and defence and the EU-funded research aimed at supporting them, with an exclusive focus on intentional harm. It is organised around several thematic building blocks under the umbrella of the three core priorities defined in the European agenda on security. The report reviews the current main risks and threats but also those that may emerge within the next 5 years, the policy and operational means developed to combat them, the main active stakeholders and the EU legislation in force. In this context, a short history of EU research on security and defence is presented, followed by an inventory of relevant research and development projects funded under the Horizon 2020 framework programme during the period 2014-2018. The specific contributions of the Joint Research Centre to security research are also highlighted. Finally, future avenues for security and defence research and development are discussed. Please note that the executive summary of this landscape report has been published simultaneously as a companion document.JRC.E.7-Knowledge for Security and Migratio