Parties’ pre-election signals can and do influence strategic voting, according to evidence from Sweden

Britain is entering what appears to be a period of multi-party politics, with the old two party system seemingly disintegrating before our eyes. In this context, tactical voting takes on added importance, with numerous members of the electorate willing to ‘hold their nose’ and vote for a party they do not favour in order to keep a less favoured party out. Annika Fredén here presents research which shows that the messages sent by parties about their post-election intentions can and do influence strategic voter choice, with implications for electoral outcomes

Testing for voter rigging in small polling stations

Since the 1970s there has been a large number of countries that combine formal democratic institutions with authoritarian practices. Although in such countries the ruling elites may receive considerable voter support they often employ several manipulation tools to control election outcomes. A common practice of these regimes is the coercion and mobilization of a significant amount of voters to guarantee the electoral victory. This electoral irregularity is known as voter rigging, distinguishing it from vote rigging, which involves ballot stuffing or stealing. Here we develop a statistical test to quantify to which extent the results of a particular election display traces of voter rigging. Our key hypothesis is that small polling stations are more susceptible to voter rigging, because it is easier to identify opposing individuals, there are less eye witnesses, and supposedly less visits from election observers. We devise a general statistical method for testing whether voting behavior in small polling stations is significantly different from the behavior of their neighbor stations in a way that is consistent with the widespread occurrence of voter rigging. Based on a comparative analysis, the method enables to rule out whether observed differences in voting behavior might be explained by geographic heterogeneities in vote preferences. We analyze 21 elections in ten different countries and find significant anomalies compatible with voter rigging in Russia from 2007-2011, in Venezuela from 2006-2013, and in Uganda 2011. Particularly disturbing is the case of Venezuela where these distortions have been outcome-determinative in the 2013 presidential elections

Land cover change and its influence on soil erosion in the Mara region, Tanzania : using satellite remote sensing and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to map land degradation between 1986 and 2013

Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from land degradation, depletion of natural resources and rural poverty. In the Lake Victoria Basin, where large parts of the population are small scale farmers, people are facing such issues coupled with altered climatic conditions. The focus area of this study is the Mara region in northern Tanzania, situated on the eastern lakeshore. Mara has experienced a doubling of its population during the past four decades and is subsequently suffering from land scarcity, deforestation, erosion, lake eutrophication, soil fertility decline etc. The main objective is to assess land cover change in Mara between 1986 and 2013, and to estimate soil erosion as an effect of land cover change by using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Supervised classification was done using the maximum likelihood method on Landsat TM and ETM+ images from 1986, 1999 and 2013 to generate thematic land cover maps. To isolate the effect of land cover change on erosion, all other factors affecting soil loss were kept constant in the modelling process. Fieldwork was carried out in order to gather ground truth data and to obtain an overview of the land cover dynamics as well as the living situation of the rural population. The results show an increase in the extent of agriculture, mainly at the expense of woodlands, shrublands and grasslands. The RUSLE calculations suggest that, if rainfall is fixed at the 1950-2000 mean, the annual average soil loss increases over the study period. The erosion changes can be attributed to the ongoing cropland expansion and the woodland degradation. A continuously growing population accompanied by higher demand for agricultural land and fuel wood will likely exacerbate deforestation and erosion in the future, especially as the climate is getting drier. Unless precautionary measures are taken the study area is likely to experience extensive future land degradation and poverty increase.En stor del av Östafrikas landsbygdsbefolkning är självförsörjande jordbrukare som på grund av begränsade markytor och förändrade klimatförhållanden riskerar misslyckade skördar och ökad fattigdom. I takt med att befolkningen växer blir miljöproblem som avskogning, erosion och urlakade jordar, samt övergödning av vattendrag och sjöar alltmer påtagliga. Syftet med den här studien är att kartlägga markanvändningsförändringar i en del av Victoriasjöns avrinningsområde mellan år 1986 och 2013, och att undersöka om förändringarna har någon påverkan på jorderosion. Studieområdet ligger i norra Tanzania på gränsen till Kenya, i en region som heter Mara. Satellitbilder tagna av Landsat TM och ETM+ från åren 1986, 1999 och 2013 användes för att kartlägga markanvändningen. Erosionen beräknades med RUSLE (”Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation”) som är en ekvation i vilken jordförlust som orsakas av regn och ytavrinning uppskattas. I RUSLE multipliceras parametrar som representerar hur nederbörd, jordart, sluttning och markanvändning påverkar erosionen. För att få fram de förändringar i erosion som orsakats av markanvändningsförändringarna har variationer i nederbörd inte inkluderats i modellen, istället användes medelnederbörden mellan åren 1950-2000. Det innebär att slutresultatet inte reflekterar de årliga regnvariationerna. Fältarbete i studieområdet gjordes mellan december 2013 och mars 2014. Det innefattade intervjuer med lokalbefolkningen och insamling av lägesbunden kontrolldata och utfördes för att få en grundläggande uppfattning om förändringar i landskapet och markanvändning samt för att få inblick i den lokala befolkningens levnadssituation. Analysresultaten påvisade en ökning av arealen jordbruksmark som framför allt har skett på bekostnad av skogsområden, buskmarker och gräsmarker. Förutsatt att nederbörden motsvarar medelsnittet mellan åren 1950-2000, antyder modellresultatet att jorderosionen ökade från 1986 till 2013. Om trenden med växande befolkning följd av ett ökat behov av jordbruksmark och bränsle fortsätter riskerar studieområdet att i framtiden drabbas av omfattande problem vad gäller erosion och fattigdom

A proof-of-concept study on mortality prediction with machine learning algorithms using burn intensive care data

INTRODUCTION: Burn injuries are a common traumatic injury. Large burns have high mortality requiring intensive care and accurate mortality predictions. To assess if machine learning (ML) could improve predictions, ML algorithms were tested and compared with the original and revised Baux score. METHODS: Admission data and mortality outcomes were collected from patients at Uppsala University Hospital Burn Centre from 2002 to 2019. Prognostic variables were selected, ML algorithms trained and predictions assessed by analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Comparison was made with Baux scores using DeLong test. RESULTS: A total of 17 prognostic variables were selected from 92 patients. AUCs in leave-one-out cross-validation for a decision tree model, an extreme boosting model, a random forest model, a support-vector machine (SVM) model and a generalised linear regression model (GLM) were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.72-0.94), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.74-0.94), respectively. AUCs for the Baux score and revised Baux score were 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75-0.95) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.74-0.94). No significant differences were observed when comparing ML algorithms with Baux score and revised Baux score. Secondary variable selection was made to analyse model performance. CONCLUSION: This proof-of-concept study showed initial credibility in using ML algorithms to predict mortality in burn patients. The sample size was small and future studies are needed with larger sample sizes, further variable selections and prospective testing of the algorithms. LAY SUMMARY: Burn injuries are one of the most common traumatic injuries especially in countries with limited prevention and healthcare resources. To treat a patient with large burns who has been admitted to an intensive care unit, it is often necessary to assess the risk of a fatal outcome. Physicians traditionally use simplified scores to calculate risks. One commonly used score, the Baux score, uses age of the patient and the size of the burn to predict the risk of death. Adding the factor of inhalation injury, the score is then called the revised Baux score. However, there are a number of additional causes that can influence the risk of fatal outcomes that Baux scores do not take into account. Machine learning is a method of data modelling where the system learns to predict outcomes based on previous cases and is a branch of artificial intelligence. In this study we evaluated several machine learning methods for outcome prediction in patients admitted for burn injury. We gathered data on 93 patients at admission to the intensive care unit and our experiments show that machine learning methods can reach an accuracy comparable with Baux scores in calculating the risk of fatal outcomes. This study represents a proof of principle and future studies on larger patient series are required to verify our results as well as to evaluate the methods on patients in real-life situations.Peer reviewe

Asymmetric Cerebral Blood Flow in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment: Possible Relationship to Further Cognitive Deterioration

To explore patterns of cerebral blood flow in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), who (1) eventually deteriorate into overt dementia, with no particular focus on the type of dementia, or (2) do not appear to further deteriorate in their cognitive functions

Enkelt och tydligt räcker långt

This qualitative study intends to deepen the understanding of research in multifunctional organizations in change. The study is based on a case-study, where we have been studying a change in the communication activities in Helsingborg city. The study is based on a hermeneutic perspective and has been conducted through 11 individual interviews. The empirical data has been analyzed through a qualitative content analysis and then explained by relevant theories and concepts. The analyses have primarily been based on Bakka, Fivesdal and Lindqvist (2011) theory of organization. The researchers divide organizations into three parts; structure, culture and process. In the study we have applied the stakeholder theory, which is based on organization´s stakeholders in change (Lewis, 2011). The study shows that the stakeholders, the communicators in the case-organization, in many respects feel neglected by the central communications department in the change. An image which is partly confirmed by the communications department, where interviewees believe that they have not been sufficiently clear with what can be expected of the department. The study also shows that the stakeholders are asking for a common direction and clearer objectives for the communications work in the case-organization.Denna kvalitativa studie ämnar fördjupa forskningens förståelse om multifunktionella organisationer i förändring. Studien har genomförts med utgångspunkt i Helsingborgs stad som fallorganisation, där en förändring inom kommunikations- och informationsverksamheten har undersökts. Utifrån det hermeneutiska perspektivet har empiriinsamling skett genom 11 enskilda intervjuer. Empirin har sedan analyserats genom en kvalitativ innehållsanalys och kontextualiserats utifrån relevanta teorier och begrepp. Studien utgår primärt från Bakka, Fivesdal och Lindqvist (2011) organisationsteori, inom vilken organisationer förklaras utifrån tre delar: struktur, kultur och process. I studien tillämpas vidare intressentmodellen, vilken är baserad på organisationers intressenter vid förändring (Lewis, 2011). Vid tillämpning av intressentmodellen har vi utgått från att den centrala kommunikationsavdelningen leder förändringen, varpå de kan betraktas som implementerare. Därtill har vi avgränsat oss genom att undersöka kommunikatörer i förvaltningarna i studiens fallorganisation som en gemensam intressent-grupp. Studien visar på att intressenterna i flera avseenden känner sig förbisedda i förändringen som helhet. En bild som bekräftas av implementerarna, där de menar att de i processen inte har varit tillräckligt synliga och tydliga med vad som kan förväntas av avdelningen. En form av motstånd som har identifierats utifrån upplevd otydlighet och då intressenterna inte har blivit delaktiga i den utsträckning de önskar är ett avståndstagande från den centrala kommunikationsavdelningen. Samtidigt visar studien att det finns en önskan om att få större kraft i det gemensamma kommunikationsarbetet, varvid intressenterna efterfrågar en gemensam riktning och tydligare mål

Altered adrenal and gonadal steroids biosynthesis in patients with burn injury

Peer reviewe

Touch and Hearing Mediate Osseoperception

Osseoperception is the sensation arising from the mechanical stimulation of a bone-anchored prosthesis. Here we show that not only touch, but also hearing is involved in this phenomenon. Using mechanical vibrations ranging from 0.1 to 6 kHz, we performed four psychophysical measures (perception threshold, sensation discrimination, frequency discrimination and reaction time) on 12 upper and lower limb amputees and found that subjects: consistently reported perceiving a sound when the stimulus was delivered at frequencies equal to or above 400 Hz; were able to discriminate frequency differences between stimuli delivered at high stimulation frequencies (∼1500 Hz); improved their reaction time for bimodal stimuli (i.e. when both vibration and sound were perceived). Our results demonstrate that osseoperception is a multisensory perception, which can explain the improved environment perception of bone-anchored prosthesis users. This phenomenon might be exploited in novel prosthetic devices to enhance their control, thus ultimately improving the amputees' quality of life