Starburst Energy Feedback Seen through HCO+/HOC+ Emission in NGC 253 from ALCHEMI

Molecular abundances are sensitive to the UV photon flux and cosmic-ray ionization rate. In starburst environments, the effects of high-energy photons and particles are expected to be stronger. We examine these astrochemical signatures through multiple transitions of HCO+ and its metastable isomer HOC+ in the center of the starburst galaxy NGC 253 using data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array large program ALMA Comprehensive High-resolution Extragalactic Molecular inventory. The distribution of the HOC+(1−0) integrated intensity shows its association with "superbubbles," cavities created either by supernovae or expanding H ii regions. The observed HCO+/HOC+ abundance ratios are ∼10–150, and the fractional abundance of HOC+ relative to H2 is ∼1.5 × 10−11–6 × 10−10, which implies that the HOC+ abundance in the center of NGC 253 is significantly higher than in quiescent spiral arm dark clouds in the Galaxy and the Galactic center clouds. Comparison with chemical models implies either an interstellar radiation field of G0 ≳ 103 if the maximum visual extinction is ≳5, or a cosmic-ray ionization rate of ζ ≳ 10−14 s−1 (3–4 orders of magnitude higher than that within clouds in the Galactic spiral arms) to reproduce the observed results. From the difference in formation routes of HOC+, we propose that a low-excitation line of HOC+ traces cosmic-ray dominated regions, while high-excitation lines trace photodissociation regions. Our results suggest that the interstellar medium in the center of NGC 253 is significantly affected by energy input from UV photons and cosmic rays, sources of energy feedback

Resolving the ISM at the Peak of Cosmic Star Formation with ALMA: The Distribution of CO and Dust Continuum in z similar to 2.5 Submillimeter Galaxies

We use Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) observations of four submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) at z ~ 2–3 to investigate the spatially resolved properties of the interstellar medium (ISM) at scales of 1–5 kpc (0farcs1–0farcs6). The velocity fields of our sources, traced by the 12CO(J = 3–2) emission, are consistent with disk rotation to the first order, implying average dynamical masses of ~3 × 1011 ${M}_{\odot }$ within two half-light radii. Through a Bayesian approach we investigate the uncertainties inherent to dynamically constraining total gas masses. We explore the covariance between the stellar mass-to-light ratio and CO-to-H2 conversion factor, α CO, finding values of ${\alpha }_{\mathrm{CO}}={1.1}_{-0.7}^{+0.8}$ for dark matter fractions of 15%. We show that the resolved spatial distribution of the gas and dust continuum can be uncorrelated to the stellar emission, challenging energy balance assumptions in global SED fitting. Through a stacking analysis of the resolved radial profiles of the CO(3–2), stellar, and dust continuum emission in SMG samples, we find that the cool molecular gas emission in these sources (radii ~5–14 kpc) is clearly more extended than the rest-frame ~250 μm dust continuum by a factor >2. We propose that assuming a constant dust-to-gas ratio, this apparent difference in sizes can be explained by temperature and optical depth gradients alone. Our results suggest that caution must be exercised when extrapolating morphological properties of dust continuum observations to conclusions about the molecular gas phase of the interstellar medium (ISM)

Outcomes research in the development and evaluation of practice guidelines

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines have been developed in response to the observation that variations exist in clinical medicine that are not related to variations in the clinical presentation and severity of the disease. Despite their widespread use, however, practice guideline evaluation lacks a rigorous scientific methodology to support its development and application. DISCUSSION: Firstly, we review the major epidemiological foundations of practice guideline development. Secondly, we propose a chronic disease epidemiological model in which practice patterns are viewed as the exposure and outcomes of interest such as quality or cost are viewed as the disease. Sources of selection, information, confounding and temporal trend bias are identified and discussed. SUMMARY: The proposed methodological framework for outcomes research to evaluate practice guidelines reflects the selection, information and confounding biases inherent in its observational nature which must be accounted for in both the design and the analysis phases of any outcomes research study

Effect of sitagliptin on cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Data are lacking on the long-term effect on cardiovascular events of adding sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind study, we assigned 14,671 patients to add either sitagliptin or placebo to their existing therapy. Open-label use of antihyperglycemic therapy was encouraged as required, aimed at reaching individually appropriate glycemic targets in all patients. To determine whether sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo, we used a relative risk of 1.3 as the marginal upper boundary. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there was a small difference in glycated hemoglobin levels (least-squares mean difference for sitagliptin vs. placebo, -0.29 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.32 to -0.27). Overall, the primary outcome occurred in 839 patients in the sitagliptin group (11.4%; 4.06 per 100 person-years) and 851 patients in the placebo group (11.6%; 4.17 per 100 person-years). Sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; P<0.001). Rates of hospitalization for heart failure did not differ between the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P = 0.98). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of acute pancreatitis (P = 0.07) or pancreatic cancer (P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, adding sitagliptin to usual care did not appear to increase the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure, or other adverse events

Global Carbon Budget 2020

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)

An ultradeep submillimetre map: beneath the SCUBA confusion limit with lensing and robust source extraction

Extracting sources with low signal-to-noise from maps with structured background is a non-trivial task which has become important in studying the faint end of the submillimetre number counts. In this article we study source extraction from submillimetre jiggle-maps from the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) using the Mexican Hat Wavelet (MHW), an isotropic wavelet technique. As a case study we use a large (11.8 arcmin^2) jiggle-map of the galaxy cluster Abell 2218, with a 850um 1sigma r.m.s. sensitivity of 0.6-1mJy. We show via simulations that MHW is a powerful tool for reliable extraction of low signal-to-noise sources from SCUBA jiggle-maps and nine sources are detected in the A2218 850um image. Three of these sources are identified as images of a single background source with an unlensed flux of 0.8mJy. Further, two single-imaged sources also have unlensed fluxes <2mJy, below the blank-field confusion limit. In this ultradeep map, the individual sources detected resolve nearly all of the extragalactic background light at 850um, and the deep data allow to put an upper limit of 44 sources per arcmin^2 to 0.2mJy at 850um.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Figures 2 and 4 (lower panel) available in higher resolution http://www.mpia.de/homes/knudsen/papers/mhw_paper.htm