Limits to Arbitrage When Market Participation Is Restricted

There is an extensive literature claiming that it is often difficult to make use of arbitrage opportunities in financial markets. This paper provides a new reason why existing arbitrage opportunities might not be seized. We consider a world with short-lived securities, no short-selling constraints and no transaction costs. We show that to exploit all existing arbitrage opportunities, traders should pay attention to all financial markets simultaneously. The paper gives a general result stating that failure to do so will leave some arbitrage opportunities unexploited with probability one

Progress towards the determination of thermodynamic temperature with ultra-low uncertainty

Previous research effort towards the determination of the Boltzmann constant has significantly improved the supporting theory and the experimental practice of several primary thermometry methods based on the measurement of a thermodynamic property of a macroscopic system at the temperature of the triple point of water. Presently, experiments are under way to demonstrate their accuracy in the determination of the thermodynamic temperature T over an extended range spanning the interval between a few kelvin and the copper freezing point (1358 K). We discuss how these activities will improve the link between thermodynamic temperature and the temperature as measured using the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS-90) and report some preliminary results obtained by dielectric constant gas thermometry and acoustic gas thermometry. We also provide information on the status of other primary methods, such as Doppler broadening thermometry, Johnson noise thermometry and refractive index gas thermometry. Finally, we briefly consider the implications of these advancements for the dissemination of calibrated temperature standards

Strategies for memory-based decision making: Modeling behavioral and neural signatures within a cognitive architecture

How do people use memories to make inferences about real-world objects? We tested three strategies based on predicted patterns of response times and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses: one strategy that relies solely on recognition memory, a second that retrieves additional knowledge, and a third, lexicographic (i.e., sequential) strategy, that considers knowledge conditionally on the evidence obtained from recognition memory. We implemented the strategies as computational models within the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive architecture, which allowed us to derive behavioral and neural predictions that we then compared to the results of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study in which participants inferred which of two cities is larger. Overall, versions of the lexicographic strategy, according to which knowledge about many but not all alternatives is searched, provided the best account of the joint patterns of response times and BOLD responses. These results provide insights into the interplay between recognition and additional knowledge in memory, hinting at an adaptive use of these two sources of information in decision making. The results highlight the usefulness of implementing models of decision making within a cognitive architecture to derive predictions on the behavioral and neural level