Global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Improving rainfall nowcasting and urban runoff forecasting through dynamic radar-raingauge rainfall adjustment

The insufficient accuracy of radar rainfall estimates is a major source of uncertainty in short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and associated urban flood forecasts. This study looks at the possibility of improving QPFs and urban runoff forecasts through the dynamic adjustment of radar rainfall estimates based on raingauge measurements. Two commonly used techniques (Kriging with External Drift (KED) and mean field bias correction) were used to adjust radar rainfall estimates for a large area of the UK (250,000 km2) based on raingauge data. QPFs were produced using original radar and adjusted rainfall estimates as input to a nowcasting algorithm. Runoff forecasts were generated by feeding the different QPFs into the storm water drainage model of an urban catchment in London. The performance of the adjusted precipitation estimates and the associated forecasts was tested using local rainfall and flow records. The results show that adjustments done at too large scales cannot provide tangible improvements in rainfall estimates and associated QPFs and runoff forecasts at small scales, such as those of urban catchments. Moreover, the results suggest that the KED adjusted rainfall estimates may be unsuitable for generating QPFs, as this method damages the continuity of spatial structures between consecutive rainfall fields

Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling

AbstractThis work presents the results of the implementation of a probabilistic system to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall (RR) estimates and the way this uncertainty propagates through the sewer system of an urban area located in the North of England. The spatial and temporal correlations of the RR errors as well as the error covariance matrix were computed to build a RR error model able to generate RR ensembles that reproduce the uncertainty associated with the measured rainfall. The results showed that the RR ensembles provide important information about the uncertainty in the rainfall measurement that can be propagated in the urban sewer system. The results showed that the measured flow peaks and flow volumes are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the RR ensembles. In 55% of the simulated events, the uncertainties in RR measurements can explain the uncertainties observed in the simulated flow volumes. However, there are also some events where the RR uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty observed in the simulated flow volumes indicating that there are additional sources of uncertainty that must be considered such as the uncertainty in the urban drainage model structure, the uncertainty in the urban drainage model calibrated parameters, and the uncertainty in the measured sewer flows

Geostatistical upscaling of rain gauge data to support uncertainty analysis of lumped urban hydrological models

In this study we develop a method to estimate the spatially averaged rainfall intensity together with associated level of uncertainty using geostatistical upscaling. Rainfall data collected from a cluster of eight paired rain gauges in a 400 × 200m urban catchment are used in combination with spatial stochastic simulation to obtain optimal predictions of the spatially averaged rainfall intensity at any point in time within the urban catchment. The uncertainty in the prediction of catchment average rainfall intensity is obtained for multiple combinations of intensity ranges and temporal averaging intervals. The two main challenges addressed in this study are scarcity of rainfall measurement locations and non-normality of rainfall data, both of which need to be considered when adopting a geostatistical approach. Scarcity of measurement points is dealt with by pooling sample variograms of repeated rainfall measurements with similar characteristics. Normality of rainfall data is achieved through the use of normal score transformation. Geostatistical models in the form of variograms are derived for transformed rainfall intensity. Next spatial stochastic simulation which is robust to nonlinear data transformation is applied to produce realisations of rainfall fields. These realisations in transformed space are first back-transformed and next spatially aggregated to derive a random sample of the spatially averaged rainfall intensity. Results show that the prediction uncertainty comes mainly from two sources: spatial variability of rainfall and measurement error. At smaller temporal averaging intervals both these effects are high, resulting in a relatively high uncertainty in prediction. With longer temporal averaging intervals the uncertainty becomes lower due to stronger spatial correlation of rainfall data and relatively smaller measurement error. Results also show that the measurement error increases with decreasing rainfall intensity resulting in a higher uncertainty at lower intensities. Results from this study can be used for uncertainty analyses of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling of similar-sized urban catchments as it provides information on uncertainty associated with rainfall estimation, which is arguably the most important input in these models. This will help to better interpret model results and avoid false calibration and force-fitting of model parameters

De vraagstelling aan medisch deskundigen in bestuursrechtelijke arbeidsongeschiktheidsgeschillen: time for a change! Voorstel voor een nieuwe vraagstelling voor de medisch deskundige eM-De-Be-eR

Een kwalitatief goed en in rechte bruikbaar rapport van een onafhankelijke medisch deskundige in arbeidsongeschiktheidsgeschillen staat of valt met een goede vraagstelling aan diezelfde deskundige. Een vraag die de rechter zichzelf dient te stellen is of de deskundige bevoegd en bekwaam om de aan hem gestelde vragen te beantwoorden. De in dit artikel centraal staande medisch deskundige op zijn beurt dient zich voor de beantwoording van de vragen te beperken tot het terrein van zijn eigen deskundigheid. Wordt daarmee bij het stellen van de vragen echter wel voldoende rekening gehouden door de bestuursrechter? Anders gezegd: worden wel de goede vragen gesteld

Cosmic rays studied with a hybrid high school detector array

The LORUN/NAHSA system is a pathfinder for hybrid cosmic ray research combined with education and outreach in the field of astro-particle physics. Particle detectors and radio antennae were mainly setup by students and placed on public buildings. After fully digital data acquisition, coincidence detections were selected. Three candidate events confirmed a working prototype, which can be multiplied to extend further particle detector arrays on high schools.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. Nigl, A., Timmermans, C., Schellart, P., Kuijpers, J., Falcke, H., Horneffer, A., de Vos, C. M., Koopman, Y., Pepping, H. J., Schoonderbeek, G., Cosmic rays studied with a hybrid high school detector array, Europhysics News (EPN), Vol. 38, No. 5, accepted on 22/08/200

Costs and benefits of combined sewer overflow management strategies at the European scale

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) may represent a significant source of pollution, but they are difficult to quantify at a large scale (e.g. regional or national), due to a lack of accessible data. In the present study, we use a large scale, 6-parameter, lumped hydrological model to perform a screening level assessment of different CSO management scenarios for the European Union and United Kingdom, considering prevention and treatment strategies. For each scenario we quantify the potential reduction of CSO volumes and duration, and estimate costs and benefits. A comparison of scenarios shows that treating CSOs before discharge in the receiving water body (e.g. by constructed wetlands) is more cost-effective than preventing CSOs. Among prevention strategies, urban greening has a benefit/cost ratio one order of magnitude higher than grey solutions, due to the several additional benefits it entails. We also estimate that real time control may bring on average a CSO volume reduction of just above 20%. In general, the design of appropriate CSO management strategies requires consideration of context-specific conditions, and is best made in the context of an integrated urban water management plan taking into account factors such as other ongoing initiatives in urban greening, the possibility to disconnect impervious surfaces from combined drainage systems, and the availability of space for grey or nature-based solutions