Psoriasis and associated variables in classification and outcome of juvenile idiopathic arthritis - an eight-year follow-up study

Background: To study the impact of psoriasis and features associated with psoriasis on classification and outcome in a population-based follow-up cohort of children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods: In all, 440 children with JIA were followed for a median of 8 years in a prospective Nordic population-based cohort study. Data for remission was available for 427 of these children. The presence of psoriasis, psoriasis-like rash, dactylitis, nail pitting, enthesitis, tenosynovitis and heredity was assessed in relation to ILAR classification and remission. Results: Clinical findings associated with psoriasis developed consecutively during the 8-year period. Six of 14 children with psoriasis were not classified as juvenile psoriatic arthritis according to the ILAR criteria at 8 year follow-up. Dactylitis was more common in children with early onset of JIA. After 8 years we found a cumulative median number of eleven arthritic joints in children with psoriasis or psoriasis- like rash compared with six in the rest of the cohort (p = 0.02). Also, the chance for not being in remission after 8 years increased significantly in patients with psoriasis, psoriasis-like rash or at least two of: 1) first-degree heredity for psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis, 2) dactylitis or 3) nail pitting, compared with the rest of the group (OR 3.32, p = 0.010). Conclusions: Our results indicate a more severe disease over time in psoriasis- associated JIA, as features of psoriasis develop during the disease course. This group is a major challenge to encompass in a future JIA classification in order to facilitate early tailored treatment.Peer reviewe

Prognosis of Component Degradation Under Uncertainty: A Method for Early Stage Design of a Complex Engineering System

This paper proposes a method that dynamically improves a statistical model of system degradation by incorporating uncertainty. The method is illustrated by a case example of fouling, or degradation, in a heat exchanger in a cogeneration desalination plant. The goal of the proposed method is to select the best model from several representative condenser fouling models including linear, falling rate, and asymptotic fouling, and to validate and improve model parameters over the duration of operation. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was applied to obtain a stochastic distribution of condenser fouling. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were then computed at time intervals to assess the accuracy of the MLE results. The degradation model was further evaluated by estimating future prognoses and then cross-validating with real world fouling data. The results show the accuracy of a prognosis can be improved substantially by continuously updating fouling model parameters. The proposed method is a step toward facilitating prognosis of engineering systems in the early design stages by improving the prediction of future component degradation.Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy at MIT and KFUPMNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canad

Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: results from the Nordic cohort study

Abstract Background The aim was to develop prediction rules that may guide early treatment decisions based on baseline clinical predictors of long-term unfavorable outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods In the Nordic JIA cohort, we assessed baseline disease characteristics as predictors of the following outcomes 8 years after disease onset. Non-achievement of remission off medication according to the preliminary Wallace criteria, functional disability assessed by Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) and Physical Summary Score (PhS) of the Child Health Questionnaire, and articular damage assessed by the Juvenile Arthritis Damage Index-Articular (JADI-A). Multivariable models were constructed, and cross-validations were performed by repeated partitioning of the cohort into training sets for developing prediction models and validation sets to test predictive ability. Results The total cohort constituted 423 children. Remission status was available in 410 children: 244 (59.5%) of these did not achieve remission off medication at the final study visit. Functional disability was present in 111/340 (32.7%) children assessed by CHAQ and 40/199 (20.1%) by PhS, and joint damage was found in 29/216 (13.4%). Model performance was acceptable for making predictions of long-term outcome. In validation sets, the area under the curves (AUCs) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.78 (IQR 0.72–0.82) for non-achievement of remission off medication, 0.73 (IQR 0.67–0.76) for functional disability assessed by CHAQ, 0.74 (IQR 0.65–0.80) for functional disability assessed by PhS, and 0.73 (IQR 0.63–0.76) for joint damage using JADI-A. Conclusion The feasibility of making long-term predictions of JIA outcome based on early clinical assessment is demonstrated. The prediction models have acceptable precision and require only readily available baseline variables. Further testing in other cohorts is warranted

Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : results from the Nordic cohort study

Background: The aim was to develop prediction rules that may guide early treatment decisions based on baseline clinical predictors of long-term unfavorable outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods: In the Nordic JIA cohort, we assessed baseline disease characteristics as predictors of the following outcomes 8 years after disease onset. Non-achievement of remission off medication according to the preliminary Wallace criteria, functional disability assessed by Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) and Physical Summary Score (PhS) of the Child Health Questionnaire, and articular damage assessed by the Juvenile Arthritis Damage Index-Articular (JADI-A). Multivariable models were constructed, and cross-validations were performed by repeated partitioning of the cohort into training sets for developing prediction models and validation sets to test predictive ability. Results: The total cohort constituted 423 children. Remission status was available in 410 children: 244 (59.5%) of these did not achieve remission off medication at the final study visit. Functional disability was present in 111/340 (32.7%) children assessed by CHAQ and 40/199 (20.1%) by PhS, and joint damage was found in 29/216 (13.4%). Model performance was acceptable for making predictions of long-term outcome. In validation sets, the area under the curves (AUCs) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.78 (IQR 0.72-0.82) for non-achievement of remission off medication, 0.73 (IQR 0.67-0.76) for functional disability assessed by CHAQ, 0.74 (IQR 0.65-0.80) for functional disability assessed by PhS, and 0.73 (IQR 0.63-0.76) for joint damage using JADI-A. Conclusion: The feasibility of making long-term predictions of JIA outcome based on early clinical assessment is demonstrated. The prediction models have acceptable precision and require only readily available baseline variables. Further testing in other cohorts is warranted.Peer reviewe

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of individualised (early) patient-directed rehabilitation versus standard rehabilitation after surgical repair of the rotator cuff of the shoulder: protocol for a multi-centre, randomised controlled trial with integrated Quintet Recruitment Intervention (RaCeR 2).

Introduction: Despite the high number of operations and surgical advancement, rehabilitation after rotator cuff repair has not progressed for over 20 years. The traditional cautious approach might be contributing to sub-optimal outcomes. Our aim is to assess whether individualised (early) patient-directed rehabilitation results in less shoulder pain and disability at 12 weeks after surgical repair of full-thickness tears of the rotator cuff compared to current standard (delayed) rehabilitation. Methods and analysis: The rehabilitation after rotator cuff repair (RaCeR 2) study is a pragmatic multi-centre, open label, randomised controlled trial with internal pilot phase. It has a parallel group design with 1:1 allocation ratio, full health economic evaluation, and Quintet Recruitment Intervention. Adults awaiting arthroscopic surgical repair of a full-thickness tear are eligible to participate. Upon completion of surgery, 638 participants will be randomised. The intervention (individualised early patient-directed rehabilitation) includes advice to the patient to remove their sling as soon as they feel able, gradually begin using their arm as they feel able and a specific exercise programme. Sling removal and movement is progressed by the patient over time according to agreed goals and within their own pain and tolerance. The comparator (standard rehabilitation) includes advice to the patient to wear the sling for at least four weeks and only to remove while eating, washing, dressing or performing specific exercises. Progression is according to specific timeframes rather than as the patient feels able. The primary outcome measure is the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) total score at 12-week post-randomisation. The trial timeline is 56 months in total, from September 2022. <br/

Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations

Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : results from the Nordic cohort study

Background: The aim was to develop prediction rules that may guide early treatment decisions based on baseline clinical predictors of long-term unfavorable outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods: In the Nordic JIA cohort, we assessed baseline disease characteristics as predictors of the following outcomes 8 years after disease onset. Non-achievement of remission off medication according to the preliminary Wallace criteria, functional disability assessed by Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) and Physical Summary Score (PhS) of the Child Health Questionnaire, and articular damage assessed by the Juvenile Arthritis Damage Index-Articular (JADI-A). Multivariable models were constructed, and cross-validations were performed by repeated partitioning of the cohort into training sets for developing prediction models and validation sets to test predictive ability. Results: The total cohort constituted 423 children. Remission status was available in 410 children: 244 (59.5%) of these did not achieve remission off medication at the final study visit. Functional disability was present in 111/340 (32.7%) children assessed by CHAQ and 40/199 (20.1%) by PhS, and joint damage was found in 29/216 (13.4%). Model performance was acceptable for making predictions of long-term outcome. In validation sets, the area under the curves (AUCs) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.78 (IQR 0.72-0.82) for non-achievement of remission off medication, 0.73 (IQR 0.67-0.76) for functional disability assessed by CHAQ, 0.74 (IQR 0.65-0.80) for functional disability assessed by PhS, and 0.73 (IQR 0.63-0.76) for joint damage using JADI-A. Conclusion: The feasibility of making long-term predictions of JIA outcome based on early clinical assessment is demonstrated. The prediction models have acceptable precision and require only readily available baseline variables. Further testing in other cohorts is warranted.Peer reviewe

Participation in school and physical education in juvenile idiopathic arthritis in a Nordic long-term cohort study

Abstract Background The aim of the study was to describe school attendance and participation in physical education in school among children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods Consecutive cases of JIA from defined geographical areas of Finland, Sweden and Norway with disease onset in 1997 to 2000 were followed for 8 years in a multi-center cohort study, aimed to be as close to population-based as possible. Clinical characteristics and information on school attendance and participation in physical education (PE) were registered. Results Participation in school and in PE was lowest initially and increased during the disease course. Eight years after disease onset 228/274 (83.2%) of the children reported no school absence due to JIA, while 16.8% reported absence during the last 2 months due to JIA. Full participation in PE was reported by 194/242 (80.2%), partly by 16.9%, and none by 2.9%. Lowest participation in PE was found among children with ERA and the undifferentiated categories. Absence in school and PE was associated with higher disease activity measures at the 8-year visit. School absence > 1 day at baseline predicted use of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, including biologics (DMARDs) (OR 1.2 (1.1–1.5)), and non-remission off medication (OR 1.4 (1.1–1.7) 8 years after disease onset. Conclusion School absence at baseline predicted adverse long-term outcome. In children and adolescents with JIA participation in school activities is mostly high after 8 years of disease. For the minority with low participation, special attention is warranted to promote their full potential of social interaction and improve long-term outcome

Participation in school and physical education in juvenile idiopathic arthritis in a Nordic long-term cohort study

Abstract Background The aim of the study was to describe school attendance and participation in physical education in school among children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods Consecutive cases of JIA from defined geographical areas of Finland, Sweden and Norway with disease onset in 1997 to 2000 were followed for 8 years in a multi-center cohort study, aimed to be as close to population-based as possible. Clinical characteristics and information on school attendance and participation in physical education (PE) were registered. Results Participation in school and in PE was lowest initially and increased during the disease course. Eight years after disease onset 228/274 (83.2%) of the children reported no school absence due to JIA, while 16.8% reported absence during the last 2 months due to JIA. Full participation in PE was reported by 194/242 (80.2%), partly by 16.9%, and none by 2.9%. Lowest participation in PE was found among children with ERA and the undifferentiated categories. Absence in school and PE was associated with higher disease activity measures at the 8-year visit. School absence > 1 day at baseline predicted use of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, including biologics (DMARDs) (OR 1.2 (1.1–1.5)), and non-remission off medication (OR 1.4 (1.1–1.7) 8 years after disease onset. Conclusion School absence at baseline predicted adverse long-term outcome. In children and adolescents with JIA participation in school activities is mostly high after 8 years of disease. For the minority with low participation, special attention is warranted to promote their full potential of social interaction and improve long-term outcome

KCNT1- related epilepsy: An international multicenter cohort of 27 pediatric cases

ObjectiveThrough international collaboration, we evaluated the phenotypic aspects of a multiethnic cohort of KCNT1- related epilepsy and explored genotype- phenotype correlations associated with frequently encountered variants.MethodsA cross- sectional analysis of children harboring pathogenic or likely pathogenic KCNT1 variants was completed. Children with one of the two more common recurrent KCNT1 variants were compared with the rest of the cohort for the presence of particular characteristics.ResultsTwenty- seven children (15 males, mean age = 40.8 months) were included. Seizure onset ranged from 1 day to 6 months, and half (48.1%) exhibited developmental plateauing upon onset. Two- thirds had epilepsy of infancy with migrating focal seizures (EIMFS), and focal tonic seizures were common (48.1%). The most frequent recurrent KCNT1 variants were c.2800G>A; p.Ala934Thr (n = 5) and c.862G>A; p.Gly288Ser (n = 4). De novo variants were found in 96% of tested parents (23/24). Sixty percent had abnormal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings. Delayed myelination, thin corpus callosum, and brain atrophy were the most common. One child had gray- white matter interface indistinctness, suggesting a malformation of cortical development. Several antiepileptic drugs (mean = 7.4/patient) were tried, with no consistent response to any one agent. Eleven tried quinidine; 45% had marked (>50% seizure reduction) or some improvement (25%- 50% seizure reduction). Seven used cannabidiol; 71% experienced marked or some improvement. Fourteen tried diet therapies; 57% had marked or some improvement. When comparing the recurrent variants to the rest of the cohort with respect to developmental trajectory, presence of EIMFS, >500 seizures/mo, abnormal MRI, and treatment response, there were no statistically significant differences. Four patients died (15%), none of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy.SignificanceOur cohort reinforces common aspects of this highly pleiotropic entity. EIMFS manifesting with refractory tonic seizures was the most common. Cannabidiol, diet therapy, and quinidine seem to offer the best chances of seizure reduction, although evidence- based practice is still unavailable.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154940/1/epi16480_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154940/2/epi16480.pd