Econophysics: making sense of a chimera

The history of economic thought witnessed several prominent economists who took seriously models and concepts in physics for the elucidation and prediction of economic phenomena. Econophysics is an emerging discipline at the intersection of heterodox economics and the physics of complex systems, with practitioners typically engaged in two overlapping but distinct methodological programs. The first is to export mathematical methods used in physics for the purposes of studying economic phenomena. The second is to export mechanisms in physics into economics. A conclusion is drawn that physics transfer is often justified at the level of mathematical transfer but unjustified at the level of mechanistic transfer

Machine Learning, Misinformation, and Citizen Science

Current methods of operationalizing concepts of misinformation in machine learning are often problematic given idiosyncrasies in their success conditions compared to other models employed in the natural and social sciences. The intrinsic value-ladenness of misinformation and the dynamic relationship between citizens' and social scientists' concepts of misinformation jointly suggest that both the construct legitimacy and the construct validity of these models needs to be assessed via more democratic criteria than has previously been recognized

Edgeworth’s Mathematization of Social Well-Being

Francis Ysidro Edgeworth’s unduly neglected monograph New and Old Methods of Ethics (1877) advances a highly sophisticated and mathematized account of social well-being in the utilitarian tradition of his 19th-century contemporaries. This article illustrates how his usage of the ‘calculus of variations’ was combined with findings from empirical psychology and economic theory to construct a consequentialist axiological framework. A conclusion is drawn that Edgeworth is a methodological predecessor to several important methods, ideas, and issues that continue to be discussed in contemporary social well-being studies

Edgeworth’s Mathematization of Social Well-Being

Francis Ysidro Edgeworth’s unduly neglected monograph New and Old Methods of Ethics (1877) advances a highly sophisticated and mathematized account of social well-being in the utilitarian tradition of his 19th-century contemporaries. This article illustrates how his usage of the ‘calculus of variations’ was combined with findings from empirical psychology and economic theory to construct a consequentialist axiological framework. A conclusion is drawn that Edgeworth is a methodological predecessor to several important methods, ideas, and issues that continue to be discussed in contemporary social well-being studies

Medical Epistemology Meets Economics: How (Not) To GRADE Universal Basic Income Research

There have recently been novel applications of medical systematic review guidelines to economic policy interventions which contain controversial methodological assumptions that require further scrutiny. A landmark 2017 Cochrane review of unconditional cash transfer (UCT) studies, based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE), exemplifies both the possibilities and limitations of applying medical systematic review guidelines to UCT and universal basic income (UBI) studies. Recognizing the need to upgrade GRADE to incorporate the differences between medical and policy interventions, the GRADE Public Health Project Group (PHPG) was convened to enumerate and address these methodological challenges. However, in light of our analysis of additional methodological challenges that arise for UCT and UBI studies, we argue that the adaptation of medical systematic review guidelines to economic methodology is far from straightforward and is in fact more challenging than claimed by the PHPG

Medical Epistemology Meets Economics: How (Not) to GRADE Universal Basic Income Research

There have recently been novel applications of medical systematic review guidelines to economic policy interventions which contain controversial methodological assumptions that require further scrutiny. A landmark 2017 Cochrane review of unconditional cash transfer (UCT) studies, based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE), exemplifies both the possibilities and limitations of applying medical systematic review guidelines to UCT and universal basic income (UBI) studies. Recognizing the need to upgrade GRADE to incorporate the differences between medical and policy interventions, the GRADE Public Health Project Group (PHPG) was convened to enumerate and address these methodological challenges. However, in light of our analysis of additional methodological challenges that arise for UCT and UBI studies, we argue that the adaptation of medical systematic review guidelines to economic methodology is far from straightforward and is in fact more challenging than claimed by the PHPG

Improving the Clinical Diagnosis of Influenza—a Comparative Analysis of New Influenza A (H1N1) Cases

BACKGROUND: The presentation of new influenza A(H1N1) is broad and evolving as it continues to affect different geographic locations and populations. To improve the accuracy of predicting influenza infection in an outpatient setting, we undertook a comparative analysis of H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and persons with acute respiratory illness (ARI) in an outpatient setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Comparative analyses of one hundred non-matched cases each of PCR confirmed H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and ARI cases. Multivariate analysis was performed to look for predictors of influenza infection. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for various combinations of clinical and laboratory case definitions. The initial clinical and laboratory features of H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza were similar. Among ARI cases, fever, cough, headache, rhinorrhea, the absence of leukocytosis, and a normal chest radiograph positively predict for both PCR-confirmed H1N1-2009 and seasonal influenza infection. The sensitivity and specificity of current WHO and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria were modest in predicting influenza infection. However, the combination of WHO ILI criteria with the absence of leukocytosis greatly improved the accuracy of diagnosing H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza (positive LR of 7.8 (95%CI 3.5-17.5) and 9.2 (95%CI 4.1-20.3) respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical presentation of H1N1(2009) infection is largely indistinguishable from that of seasonal influenza. Among patients with acute respiratory illness, features such as a temperature greater than 38 degrees C, rhinorrhea, a normal chest radiograph, and the absence of leukocytosis or significant gastrointestinal symptoms were all positively associated with H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza infection. An enhanced ILI criteria that combines both a symptom complex with the absence of leukocytosis on testing can improve the accuracy of predicting both seasonal and H1N1-2009 influenza infection

Effective Antigen-Specific Immunotherapy in the Marmoset Model of Multiple Sclerosis

Mature T cells initially respond to Ag by activation and expansion, but high and repeated doses of Ag cause programmed cell death and can suppress T cell-mediated diseases in rodents. We evaluated repeated systemic Ag administration in a marmoset model of experimental allergic encephalomyelitis that closely resembles the human disease multiple sclerosis. We found that treatment with MP4, a chimeric, recombinant polypeptide containing human myelin basic protein and human proteolipid protein epitopes, prevented clinical symptoms and did not exacerbate disease. CNS lesions were also reduced as assessed in vivo by magnetic resonance imaging. Thus, specific Ag-directed therapy can be effective and nontoxic in primates. The Journal of Immunology, 2001, 166: 2116 -2121. M ultiple sclerosis (MS) 4 is a paralytic disease involving destruction of myelin sheaths surrounding axons in the CNS (1, 2). MS affects young adults, most often women residing in northern latitudes. The disease exhibits relapsing and remitting symptoms including disturbances in vision, speech, coordination, and cognition as well as weakness, spasticity, and paralysis (1, 2). Lymphocytic infiltration in the CNS white matter and immune reactions against myelin Ags indicate an autoimmune etiology for MS (1-8). Allergic encephalomyelitis was first observed as a side effect of the rabies vaccine prepared from rabbit brains by Pasteur in the 1880s (see Ref. 3). Rivers and others showed that the CNS inflammation was caused not by the rabies virus but by immune sensitization to the combination of adjuvant and brain tissue contaminating the vaccine (3, 4). Experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE) models in various animal species, typically rodents, were later developed by immunization with myelin proteins in adjuvant or by the adoptive transfer of myelinreactive T cells, causing inflammatory damage to the white matter (1-6). Rodent EAE is the most widely used disease model despite important differences from MS (2). Encephalitogenic CD4 ϩ T cells are believed to initiate and perpetuate EAE and MS and thus constitute a therapeutic target (1-8). Abundant myelin protein Ags, including myelin basic protein (MBP) and proteolipid protein (PLP) as well as the less abundant Ags, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) and myelin-associated glycoprotein (MAG), are recognized by T cells in MS patients (9 -11). T cell responses against MBP and PLP may occur at an increased frequency in MS patients compared with controls (1, 2, 11, 12). Ag-specific immunotherapies directed at T cells could avoid the harmful side effects of general immunosuppressive treatments. We have investigated a potential immunotherapy for MS based on our observation that T cells undergo apoptosis both in vitro and in vivo when exposed to high or repeated doses of their cognate Ag (13, To present a broad array of potential epitopes to reactive T cells, we constructed MP4, a protein chimera of the 21.5-kDa isoform of human MBP, and a modified form of human PLP, termed PLP4, that lacks the hydrophobic domains of the protein but includes all of the known T cell epitopes (19 -21). MP4 is processed into multiple determinants and can eliminate rodent EAE by promoting tolerance to different epitopes In a few instances, EAE and Ag treatments have been studied in nonhuman primates. EAE was originally induced in rhesus macaques using CNS homogenates or purified MBP (3, 4, 30 -32). It was also found that repeated injections of MBP could arrest EAE The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London