Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries�apart from Ecuador�across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50 or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10 of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups�the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths

Dichotomous issues in psychology: Intransigency or developmental phase?

10.1111/1464-0597.00089Applied Psychology512236-25

Outcome after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in Asian breast cancer patients

10.1002/cam4.985Cancer Medicine61173-18

Outcome after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in Asian breast cancer patients

We aim to identify clinicopathologic predictors for response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and to evaluate the prognostic value of pathologic complete response (pCR) on survival in Asia. This study included 915 breast cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy at five public hospitals in Singapore and Malaysia. pCR following neoadjuvant chemotherapy was defined as 1) no residual invasive tumor cells in the breast (ypT0/is) and 2) no residual invasive tumor cells in the breast and axillary lymph nodes (ypT0/is ypN0). Association between pCR and clinicopathologic characteristics and treatment were evaluated using chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression. Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank test, stratified by other prognostic factors, were conducted to compare overall survival between patients who achieved pCR and patients who did not. Overall, 4.4% of nonmetastatic patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The median age of preoperatively treated patients was 50 years. pCR rates were 18.1% (pCR ypT0/is) and 14.4% (pCR ypT0/is ypN0), respectively. pCR rate was the highest among women who had higher grade, smaller size, estrogen receptor negative, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive disease or receiving taxane-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Patients who achieved pCR had better overall survival than those who did not. In subgroup analysis, the survival advantage was only significant among women with estrogen receptor-negative tumors. Patients with poor prognostic profile are more likely to achieve pCR and particularly when receiving taxane-containing chemotherapy. pCR is a significant prognostic factor for overall survival especially in estrogen receptor-negative breast cancers

Association of the Asporin D14 Allele with Lumbar-Disc Degeneration in Asians

Lumbar-disc degeneration (LDD) is a polygenic disease. Susceptibility genes reported so far are mainly extracellular matrix proteins. D14 allele of asporin (ASPN) is associated with osteoarthritis (OA). Candidate-gene association studies showed that the D14 allele is also significantly associated with LDD in Chinese and Japanese individuals. Meta-analysis showed that individuals harboring a D14 allele had higher risk with a summary odds ratio of 1.70 (p = 0.000013). ASPN expression in vertebral discs increased with age and degeneration. Our results indicate ASPN is a LDD gene in Asians, and common risk factors may be considered for OA and LDD