Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Models for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality after Primary Liver Cancer Surgery

BACKGROUND: Since most published articles comparing the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) models and logistic regression (LR) models for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) outcomes used only a single dataset, the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility) of the models has not been addressed. The study purposes to validate the use of ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality in HCC surgery patients in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of LR model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients who underwent a HCC surgery during the period from 1998 to 2009 were included in the study. This study retrospectively compared 1,000 pairs of LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients. For each pair of ANN and LR models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables. Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 97.28% of cases, a better H-L statistic in 41.18% of cases, and a better AUROC curve in 84.67% of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive) parameter affecting in-hospital mortality followed by age and lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data

FOXM1 Induces a Global Methylation Signature That Mimics the Cancer Epigenome in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

The oncogene FOXM1 has been implicated in all major types of human cancer. We recently showed that aberrant FOXM1 expression causes stem cell compartment expansion resulting in the initiation of hyperplasia. We have previously shown that FOXM1 regulates HELLS, a SNF2/helicase involved in DNA methylation, implicating FOXM1 in epigenetic regulation. Here, we have demonstrated using primary normal human oral keratinocytes (NOK) that upregulation of FOXM1 suppressed the tumour suppressor gene p16INK4A (CDKN2A) through promoter hypermethylation. Knockdown of HELLS using siRNA re-activated the mRNA expression of p16INK4A and concomitant downregulation of two DNA methyltransferases DNMT1 and DNMT3B. The dose-dependent upregulation of endogenous FOXM1 (isoform B) expression during tumour progression across a panel of normal primary NOK strains (n = 8), dysplasias (n = 5) and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) cell lines (n = 11) correlated positively with endogenous expressions of HELLS, BMI1, DNMT1 and DNMT3B and negatively with p16INK4A and involucrin. Bisulfite modification and methylation-specific promoter analysis using absolute quantitative PCR (MS-qPCR) showed that upregulation of FOXM1 significantly induced p16INK4A promoter hypermethylation (10-fold, P<0.05) in primary NOK cells. Using a non-bias genome-wide promoter methylation microarray profiling method, we revealed that aberrant FOXM1 expression in primary NOK induced a global hypomethylation pattern similar to that found in an HNSCC (SCC15) cell line. Following validation experiments using absolute qPCR, we have identified a set of differentially methylated genes, found to be inversely correlated with in vivo mRNA expression levels of clinical HNSCC tumour biopsy samples. This study provided the first evidence, using primary normal human cells and tumour tissues, that aberrant upregulation of FOXM1 orchestrated a DNA methylation signature that mimics the cancer methylome landscape, from which we have identified a unique FOXM1-induced epigenetic signature which may have clinical translational potentials as biomarkers for early cancer screening, diagnostic and/or therapeutic interventions

Disease-Free Survival after Hepatic Resection in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Prediction Approach Using Artificial Neural Network

Background: A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. Methods: The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN) model, a logistic regression (LR) model, and a decision tree (DT) model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80 % of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively) were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20 % of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups) were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. Conclusions: The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection

Development of expressed sequence tag resources for Vanda Mimi Palmer and data mining for EST-SSR

Vanda Mimi Palmer (VMP) is a highly sought as fragrant orchid hybrid in Malaysia. It is economically important in cosmetic and beauty industries and also a famous potted ornamental plant. To date, no work on fragrance-related genes of vandaceous orchids has been reported from other research groups although the analysis of floral fragrance or volatiles have been extensively studied. An expressed sequence tag (EST) resource was developed for VMP principally to mine any potential fragrance-related expressed sequence tag-simple sequence repeat (EST-SSR) for future development as markers in the identification of fragrant vandaceous orchids endemic to Malaysia. Clustering, annotation and assembling of the ESTs identified 1,196 unigenes which defined 966 singletons and 230 contigs. The VMP dbEST was functionally classified by gene ontology (GO) into three groups:molecular functions (51.2%), cellular components (16.4%)and biological processes (24.6%) while the remaining 7.8% showed no hits with GO identifier. A total of 112 EST-SSR(9.4%) was mined on which at least five units of di-, tri-,tetra-, penta-, or hexa-nucleotide repeats were predicted.The di-nucleotide motif repeats appeared to be the most frequent repeats among the detected SSRs with the AT/TA types as the most abundant among the dimerics, while AAG/TTC, AGA/TCT-type were the most frequent trimerics. The mined EST-SSR is believed to be useful in the development of EST-SSR markers that is applicable in the screening and characterization of fragrance-related transcripts in closely related species

The study of atmospheric ice-nucleating particles via microfluidically generated droplets

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) play a significant role in the climate and hydrological cycle by triggering ice formation in supercooled clouds, thereby causing precipitation and affecting cloud lifetimes and their radiative properties. However, despite their importance, INP often comprise only 1 in 10³–10⁶ ambient particles, making it difficult to ascertain and predict their type, source, and concentration. The typical techniques for quantifying INP concentrations tend to be highly labour-intensive, suffer from poor time resolution, or are limited in sensitivity to low concentrations. Here, we present the application of microfluidic devices to the study of atmospheric INPs via the simple and rapid production of monodisperse droplets and their subsequent freezing on a cold stage. This device offers the potential for the testing of INP concentrations in aqueous samples with high sensitivity and high counting statistics. Various INPs were tested for validation of the platform, including mineral dust and biological species, with results compared to literature values. We also describe a methodology for sampling atmospheric aerosol in a manner that minimises sampling biases and which is compatible with the microfluidic device. We present results for INP concentrations in air sampled during two field campaigns: (1) from a rural location in the UK and (2) during the UK’s annual Bonfire Night festival. These initial results will provide a route for deployment of the microfluidic platform for the study and quantification of INPs in upcoming field campaigns around the globe, while providing a benchmark for future lab-on-a-chip-based INP studies

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks