The application of data mining techniques in manipulated financial statement classification: The case of turkey

Predicting financially false statements to detect frauds in companies has an increasing trend in recent studies. The manipulations in financial statements can be discovered by auditors when related financial records and indicators are analyzed in depth together with the experience of auditors in order to create knowledge to develop a decision support system to classify firms. Auditors may annotate the firms’ statements as “correct” or “incorrect” to add their experience, and then these annotations with related indicators can be used for the learning process to generate a model. Once the model is learned and tested for validation, it can be used for new firms to predict their class values. In this research, we attempted to reveal this benefit in the framework of Turkish firms. In this regard, the study aims at classifying financially correct and false statements of Turkish firms listed on Borsa İstanbul, using their particular financial ratios as indicators of a success or a manipulation. The dataset was selected from a particular period after the crisis (2009 to 2013). Commonly used three classification methods in data mining were employed for the classification: decision tree, logistic regression, and artificial neural network, respectively. According to the results, although all three methods are performed well, the latter had the best performance, and it outperforms other two classical methods. The common ground of the selected methods is that they pointed out the Z-score as the first distinctive indicator for classifying financial statements under consideration

A parametric integer programming algorithm for bilevel mixed integer programs

We consider discrete bilevel optimization problems where the follower solves an integer program with a fixed number of variables. Using recent results in parametric integer programming, we present polynomial time algorithms for pure and mixed integer bilevel problems. For the mixed integer case where the leader's variables are continuous, our algorithm also detects whether the infimum cost fails to be attained, a difficulty that has been identified but not directly addressed in the literature. In this case it yields a ``better than fully polynomial time'' approximation scheme with running time polynomial in the logarithm of the relative precision. For the pure integer case where the leader's variables are integer, and hence optimal solutions are guaranteed to exist, we present two algorithms which run in polynomial time when the total number of variables is fixed.Comment: 11 page

Recent evolution of an ice‐cored moraine at the Gentianes Pass, Valais Alps, Switzerland

International audienceLateral moraines located in permafrost environments often preserve large amounts of both glacier and periglacial ice. To understand how ice‐cored moraines located in high alpine environments evolve in a context of both glacier retreat and permafrost degradation, we performed 11 terrestrial laser‐scanning measurement campaigns between 2007 and 2014 on a highly anthropogenic overprinted moraine prone to instability. Resulting comparison of the subsequent 3D models allowed to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the morphological evolution of the moraine. The comparisons indicate a very high geomorphic activity of the moraine including large areas affected by downslope movements of blocks and 10 landslides with a volume between 24 ± 1 and 1,138 ± 47 m3. Data also indicated a very strong ice melt with a loss of ice thickness locally reaching 17.7 m at the foot of the moraine. These results, compared with resistivity and thermal measurements of the ground, suggest the combined role of ice loss at the foot of the moraine and the permafrost activity/warming in triggering these processes

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Expression and prognostic significance of cox-2 and p-53 in hodgkin lymphomas: a retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cyclooxygenase (cox) is the rate-limiting enzyme, which catalyzes the conversion of arachidonic acid into prostaglandins and contributes to the inflammatory process. Cyclooxygenase-2 (cox-2), which is one of the two isoforms, plays a role in tumor progression and carcinogenesis. p53 contributes to apoptosis, DNA renewal and cell cycle. Studies concerning the relationship of cox-2 and p53 expressions and carcinogenesis are available, but the association between cox-2 and p53 in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is not exactly known.</p> <p>In our study, we examined the association of cox-2 and p53 expression, with age, stage, histopathological subtype, and survival in HL. We also examined correlation between cox-2 and p53 expression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cox-2 and p53 expressions in Hodgkin-Reed Sternberg cells (HRS) were examined in 54 patients with HL depending on cox-2 expression, stained cases were classified as positive, and unstained cases as negative. Nuclear staining of HRS cells with p53 was evaluated as positive. The classifications of positivity were as follows: negative if<10%; (1+) if 10-25%; (2+) if 25-50%; (3+) if 50-75%, (4+) if >75%.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cox-2 and p53 expressions were found in 49 (80%) and 29 (46%) patients, respectively. There were differences between histological subtypes according to cox-2 expression (p = 0.012). Mixed cellular (MC) and nodular sclerosing (NS) subtypes were seen most of the patients and cox-2 expression was evaluated mostly in the mixed cellular subtype.</p> <p>There were no statistically significant relationships between p53 and the histopathological subtypes; or between p53, cox-2 and the factors including stage, age and survival; or between p53 and cox-2 expression (p > 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Considering the significant relationship between the cox-2 expression and the subtypes of HL, cox-2 expression is higher in MC and NS subtypes. However the difference between these two subtypes was not significant. This submission must be advocated by studies with large series</p

Public health insurance and entry into self-employment

We estimate the impact of a differential treatment of paid employees versus self-employed workers in a public health insurance system on the entry rate into entrepreneurship. In Germany, the public health insurance system is mandatory for most paid employees, but not for the selfemployed, who usually buy private health insurance. Private health insurance contributions are relatively low for the young and healthy, and until 2013 also for males, but less attractive at the other ends of these dimensions and if membership in the public health insurance allows other family members to be covered by contribution-free family insurance. Therefore, the health insurance system can create incentives or disincentives to starting up a business depending on the family’s situation and health. We estimate a discrete time hazard rate model of entrepreneurial entry based on representative household panel data for Germany, which include personal health information, and we account for non- random sample selection. We estimate that an increase in the health insurance cost differential between self-employed workers and paid employees by 100 euro per month decreases the annual probability of entry into selfemployment by 0.38 percentage points, i.e. about a third of the average annual entry rate. The results show that the phenomenon of entrepreneurship lock, which an emerging literature describes for the system of employer provided health insurance in the USA, can also occur in a public health insurance system. Therefore, entrepreneurial activity should be taken into account when discussing potential health care reforms, not only in the USA and in Germany

High-risk human papillomavirus infections in breast cancer in Syrian women and their association with Id-1 expression: a tissue microarray study

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) could be important risk factors for breast carcinogenesis and metastasis. Based on this hypothesis, we recently studied the effect of E6/E7 onco-proteins of high-risk HPV type 16 in two non-invasive human breast cancer cell lines, BT20 and MCF7; we reported that E6/E7 converts these cell lines to invasive cells. This is accompanied by an overexpression of Id-1, which is an important regulator of breast metastasis. In this investigation, we examined the presence of high-risk HPVs (16, 18, 31, 33 and 35) and the expression of their E6 onco-protein as well as their correlation with Id-1 gene expression, using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and tissue microarray (TMA) analysis, respectively, in a cohort of 113 Syrian breast cancer patients. We found that high-risk HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33 and 35 are present in 8.84, 9.73, 7.07, 55.75 and 37.16% of our samples, respectively, which represent invasive breast cancers. Overall, 69 (61.06%) of the 113 samples are HPV positive; among these specimens 24 tissues (34.78%) are coinfected with more than one HPV type. Furthermore, we report that the expression of the E6 onco-protein of these high-risk HPVs is correlated with Id-1 overexpression in the majority of invasive breast cancer tissue samples. Our data suggest that high-risk HPV infections are associated with human breast cancer progression in Syrian women