Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures

Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach to aggregation. The quality of this aggregation can be defined in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. These measures can be used to compare different aggregation approaches and help decide on which aggregation produces the “best” final prediction. When experts’ performance can be scored on similar questions ahead of time, these scores can be translated into performance-based weights, and a performance-based weighted aggregation can then be used. When this is not possible though, several other aggregation methods, informed by measurable proxies for good performance, can be formulated and compared. Here, we develop a suite of aggregation methods, informed by previous experience and the available literature. We differentially weight our experts’ estimates by measures of reasoning, engagement, openness to changing their mind, informativeness, prior knowledge, and extremity, asymmetry or granularity of estimates. Next, we investigate the relative performance of these aggregation methods using three datasets. The main goal of this research is to explore how measures of knowledge and behaviour of individuals can be leveraged to produce a better performing combined group judgment. Although the accuracy, calibration, and informativeness of the majority of methods are very similar, a couple of the aggregation methods consistently distinguish themselves as among the best or worst. Moreover, the majority of methods outperform the usual benchmarks provided by the simple average or the median of estimates

Evaluation of potential habitat with an integrated analysis of a spatial conservation strategy for David’s deer, Elaphurus davidians

How to assess the potential habitat integrating landscape dynamics and population research, and how to reintroduce animals to potential habitats in environments highly human disturbed are still questions to be answered in conservation biology. According to behavioral research on Elaphurus davidians, we have developed a suitability index and a risk index to evaluate the potential habitats for the deer. With these indices, we conducted two transect assessments to evaluate the gradient change of the target region. Then, taking rivers as border lines, we tabulated the forest areas, high grassland area and total area and then compared the forest and high grassland area in each subregion. Furthermore, we computed the land use transfer matrix for the whole Yancheng coast during 1987–2000. We also computed human modified index (HMI) in six subregions. Lastly with a geographical information system support we obtained the spatial distribution of the indices and evaluation of the whole potential habitats from a neighborhood analysis. The transect assessment showed that the suitability of the coastal area was higher than that of the inland area for the deer, while the southern area was higher than the northern. Landscape metrics and HMI analysis showed that different landscape patterns and different anthropogenic disturbance existed within the region, and the increasing human disturbance was the key factor causing the pattern dynamics. The evaluation of potential habitats showed that there was an estimated carrying capacity of no more than 10,000 for David’s deer reintroduction into the natural area. Also the reintroduction strategy was discussed. This integrated approach linked the population research and the landscape metrics, and the dataset with different scale; thus, it is an approach likely to be useful for the protection of other large animal in a landscape highly disturbed by humans

The Lunacy Commission.

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De Novo and Rare Inherited Copy-Number Variations in the Hemiplegic Form of Cerebral Palsy

PurposeHemiplegia is a subtype of cerebral palsy (CP) in which one side of the body is affected. Our earlier study of unselected children with CP demonstrated de novo and clinically relevant rare inherited genomic copy-number variations (CNVs) in 9.6% of participants. Here, we examined the prevalence and types of CNVs specifically in hemiplegic CP.MethodsWe genotyped 97 unrelated probands with hemiplegic CP and their parents. We compared their CNVs to those of 10,851 population controls, in order to identify rare CNVs

Open access solutions for biodiversity journals : Do not replace one problem with another

Peer reviewe

Open Access Solutions for Biodiversity Journals: Don’t Replace One Problem with Another

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Ten-year assessment of the 100 priority questions for global biodiversity conservation

In 2008, a group of conservation scientists compiled a list of 100 priority questions for the conservation of the world's biodiversity ?Sutherland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology, 23, 557?567?. However, now almost a decade later, no one has yet published a study gauging how much progress has been made in addressing these 100 high?priority questions in the peer?reviewed literature. Here we take a first step toward re?examining the 100 questions and identify key knowledge gaps that still remain. Through a combination of a questionnaire and a literature review, we evaluated each of the 100 questions on the basis of two criteria: relevance and effort. We defined highly?relevant questions as those which ? if answered ? would have the greatest impact on global biodiversity conservation, while effort was quantified based on the number of review publications addressing a particular question, which we used as a proxy for research effort. Using this approach we identified a set of questions that, despite being perceived as highly relevant, have been the focus of relatively few review publications over the past ten years. These questions covered a broad range of topics but predominantly tackled three major themes: the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems, the role of societal structures in shaping interactions between people and the environment, and the impacts of conservation interventions. We see these questions as important knowledge gaps that have so far received insufficient attention and may need to be prioritised in future research