Observed changes in surface atmospheric energy over land

The temperature of the surface atmosphere over land has been rising during recent decades. But surface temperature, or, more accurately, enthalpy which can be calculated from temperature, is only one component of the energy content of the surface atmosphere. The other parts include kinetic energy and latent heat. It has been advocated in certain quarters that ignoring additional terms somehow calls into question global surface temperature analyses. Examination of all three of these components of atmospheric energetics reveals a significant increase in global surface atmospheric energy since the 1970s. Kinetic energy has decreased but by over two orders of magnitude less than the increases in both enthalpy and latent heat which provide approximately equal contributions to the global increases in heat content. Regionally, the enthalpy or the latent heat component can dominate the change in heat content. Although generally changes in latent heat and enthalpy act in concert, in some regions they can have the opposite signs

HadISDH: an updateable land surface specific humidity product for climate monitoring

HadISDH is a near-global land surface specific humidity monitoring product providing monthly means from 1973 onwards over large-scale grids. Presented herein to 2012, annual updates are anticipated. HadISDH is an update to the land component of HadCRUH, utilising the global high-resolution land surface station product HadISD as a basis. HadISD, in turn, uses an updated version of NOAA's Integrated Surface Database. Intensive automated quality control has been undertaken at the individual observation level, as part of HadISD processing. The data have been subsequently run through the pairwise homogenisation algorithm developed for NCDC's US Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature product. For the first time, uncertainty estimates are provided at the grid-box spatial scale and monthly timescale. HadISDH is in good agreement with existing land surface humidity products in periods of overlap, and with both land air and sea surface temperature estimates. Widespread moistening is shown over the 1973–2012 period. The largest moistening signals are over the tropics with drying over the subtropics, supporting other evidence of an intensified hydrological cycle over recent years. Moistening is detectable with high (95%) confidence over large-scale averages for the globe, Northern Hemisphere and tropics, with trends of 0.089 (0.080 to 0.098) g kg−1 per decade, 0.086 (0.075 to 0.097) g kg−1 per decade and 0.133 (0.119 to 0.148) g kg−1 per decade, respectively. These changes are outside the uncertainty range for the large-scale average which is dominated by the spatial coverage component; station and grid-box sampling uncertainty is essentially negligible on large scales. A very small moistening (0.013 (−0.005 to 0.031) g kg−1 per decade) is found in the Southern Hemisphere, but it is not significantly different from zero and uncertainty is large. When globally averaged, 1998 is the moistest year since monitoring began in 1973, closely followed by 2010, two strong El Niño years. The period in between is relatively flat, concurring with previous findings of decreasing relative humidity over land

Hypertensive conditions of pregnancy, preterm birth, and premenopausal breast cancer risk: a premenopausal breast cancer collaborative group analysis

Purpose: Women with preeclampsia are more likely to deliver preterm. Reports of inverse associations between preeclampsia and breast cancer risk, and positive associations between preterm birth and breast cancer risk are difficult to reconcile. We investigated the co-occurrence of preeclampsia/gestational hypertension with preterm birth and breast cancer risk using data from the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group. Methods: Across 6 cohorts, 3096 premenopausal breast cancers were diagnosed among 184,866 parous women. We estimated multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for premenopausal breast cancer risk using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Overall, preterm birth was not associated (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.92, 1.14), and preeclampsia was inversely associated (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76, 0.99), with premenopausal breast cancer risk. In stratified analyses using data from 3 cohorts, preterm birth associations with breast cancer risk were modified by hypertensive conditions in first pregnancies (P-interaction = 0.09). Preterm birth was positively associated with premenopausal breast cancer in strata of women with preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (HR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.18), but not among women with normotensive pregnancy (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.28). When stratified by preterm birth, the inverse association with preeclampsia was more apparent, but not statistically different (P-interaction = 0.2), among women who did not deliver preterm (HR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.68, 1.00) than those who did (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.73, 1.56). Conclusion: Findings support an overall inverse association of preeclampsia history with premenopausal breast cancer risk. Estimates for preterm birth and breast cancer may vary according to other conditions of pregnancy

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Variability of humidity conditions in the Arctic during the first International Polar Year, 1882-83

Of all the early instrumental data for the Arctic, the meteorological data gathered during the first International Polar Year, in 1882–83 (IPY-1), are the best in terms of coverage, quality and resolution. Research carried out during IPY-1 scientific expeditions brought a significant contribution to the development of hygrometry in polar regions at the end of the 19th century. The present paper gives a detailed analysis of a unique series of humidity measurements that were carried out during IPY-1 at hourly resolutions at nine meteorological stations, relatively evenly distributed in the High Arctic. It gives an overall view of the humidity conditions prevalent in the Arctic at that time. The results show that the spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapour pressure (e) and relative humidity (RH) in the Arctic during IPY-1 was similar to the present. In the annual course the highest values of e were noted in July and August, while the lowest occurred in the cold half of the year. In comparison to present-day conditions (1961–1990), the mean values of RH in the IPY-1 period (September 1882 to July 1883) were higher by 2.4–5.6%. Most of the changes observed between historical and modern RH values are not significant. The majority of historical daily RH values lie between a distance of less than two standard deviations from current long-term monthly means

Towards an integrated set of surface meteorological observations for climate science and applications

Observations are the foundation for understanding the climate system. Yet, currently available land meteorological data are highly fractured into various global, regional and national holdings for different variables and timescales, from a variety of sources, and in a mixture of formats. Added to this, many data are still inaccessible for analysis and usage. To meet modern scientific and societal demands as well as emerging needs such as the provision of climate services, it is essential that we improve the management and curation of available land-based meteorological holdings. We need a comprehensive global set of data holdings, of known provenance, that is truly integrated both across Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and across timescales to meet the broad range of stakeholder needs. These holdings must be easily discoverable, made available in accessible formats, and backed up by multi-tiered user support. The present paper provides a high level overview, based upon broad community input, of the steps that are required to bring about this integration. The significant challenge is to find a sustained means to realize this vision. This requires a long-term international program. The database that results will transform our collective ability to provide societally relevant research, analysis and predictions in many weather and climate related application areas across much of the globe

A genome-wide gene-environment interaction study of breast cancer risk for women of European ancestry

Background Genome-wide studies of gene–environment interactions (G×E) may identify variants associated with disease risk in conjunction with lifestyle/environmental exposures. We conducted a genome-wide G×E analysis of ~ 7.6 million common variants and seven lifestyle/environmental risk factors for breast cancer risk overall and for estrogen receptor positive (ER +) breast cancer. Methods Analyses were conducted using 72,285 breast cancer cases and 80,354 controls of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Gene–environment interactions were evaluated using standard unconditional logistic regression models and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and for ER + breast cancer. Bayesian False Discovery Probability was employed to assess the noteworthiness of each SNP-risk factor pairs. Results Assuming a 1 × 10–5 prior probability of a true association for each SNP-risk factor pairs and a Bayesian False Discovery Probability < 15%, we identified two independent SNP-risk factor pairs: rs80018847(9p13)-LINGO2 and adult height in association with overall breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.94, 95% CI 0.92–0.96), and rs4770552(13q12)-SPATA13 and age at menarche for ER + breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88–0.94). Conclusions Overall, the contribution of G×E interactions to the heritability of breast cancer is very small. At the population level, multiplicative G×E interactions do not make an important contribution to risk prediction in breast cancer