Understanding Output and Price Dynamics in Japan: Why Have Japan's Price Movements Been Relatively Stable Since the 1990s?

Since the beginning of the 1990s, Japanese inflation has been relatively stable with slight declines, while output has remained volatile with a prolonged stagnation. This paper attempts to explore possible explanations for these macroeconomic facts based on the aggregate demand and supply framework. Specifically, applying a vector autoregressive framework that allows for correlations between structural disturbances, it examines two broad questions in a unified way: (i) whether the slope of the short-run aggregate supply curve became significantly flattened and/or (ii) whether structural demand and supply shocks are more strongly positive correlated. Our results suggest that positive correlation between structural demand and supply shocks has become stronger since the 1990s, while there is less evidence that the short-run aggregate supply curve has been flattened. We argue that shifts in aggregate demand and supply curves in the same direction lead to larger, permanent effects on output and to limited effects on prices in Japan.Japanese business cycle fluctuations, Aggregate demand and supply model, Correlation between demand and supply shocks

Note on the Interpretation of Convergence Speed in the Dynamic Panel Model

Studies using the dynamic panel regression approach have found the speed of income convergence among the world and regional economies to be high. For example, Lee et al. (1997, 1998) report the income convergence speed to be 30% per annum. This note argues that their estimates may be seriously overstated. Using a factor model, we show that the coefficient of the lagged income in their specification may not be the long-run convergence speed, but the adjustment speed of the short-run deviation from the long-run equilibrium path. We give an example of an empirical analysis, where the short-run adjustment speed is about 40%.Convergence speed, Dynamic panel regression, Factor model

Structural Change in Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence from the G7 Countries

Lee and Chinn (2006) and Chinn and Lee (2009) decomposed current account and real exchange rate into temporary and permanent shocks and argued that a temporary shock creates the combination of a current account surplus (deficit) and real exchange rate depreciation (appreciation). This paper extends their framework by examining a possible structural break in current account and real exchange rate dynamics. Using G7 country data for 1980--2007, we find structural changes in two-variable dynamics for all G7 countries during the 1990s. Temporary shocks have not been the main source of fluctuation in the current account since the 1990s. Our empirical results imply that the conventional mechanism has played a limited role in explaining the dynamics of the two variables.Current account, Real exchange rate, Structural change, Global imbalances

Comparison of conservative treatment versus transcatheter arterial embolisation for the treatment of spontaneously ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose: To elucidate the prognostic factors in the spontaneous rupture of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to determine whether transcatheter arterial embolisation (TAE) is associated with better prognosis compared to conservative treatment. Material and methods: A retrospective multicentre study was conducted involving 71 patients with spontaneous rupture of HCC. A conservative treatment group (Cons T group) included 20 patients, while a transcatheter arterial embolisation group (TAE group) included 51 patients. Results: The median survival time (MST) in the Cons T group was only 16 days and the survival rate was 39% at one month, whereas the MST in the TAE group was 28 days and the one month survival rate was 63%. However, there is no statistically significant difference in the overall survival between Cons T and TAE groups (p = 0.213). Multivariable analysis identified only the presence of distant metastasis as an independent prognostic factor (p = 0.023). A subanalysis including patients without distant metastasis showed that the presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis was a significant prognostic factor (p = 0.015). Conclusions: Distant metastasis appears to be a prognostic factor in spontaneous rupture of HCC. In cases without distant metastasis, portal vein tumour thrombosis could influence the prognosis. Our data failed to prove any benefit of TAE as the primary management

Enhancement of OVA-induced murine lung eosinophilia by co-exposure to contamination levels of LPS in Asian sand dust and heated dust.

BackgroundA previous study has shown that the aggravation of Asian sand dust (ASD) on ovalbumin (OVA)-induced lung eosinphilia was more severe in lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-rich ASD than in SiO2-rich ASD. Therefore, the effects of different LPS contamination levels in ASD on the aggravation of OVA-induced lung eosinophilia were investigated in the present study.MethodsBefore beginning the in vivo experiment, we investigated whether the ultra-pure LPS would act only on TLR4 or not using bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) of wild-type, TLR2-/-, TLR4-/- and MyD88-/- BALB/c mice. ASD collected from the desert was heated to remove toxic organic substances (H-ASD). BALB/c mice were instilled intratracheally with 12 different testing samples prepared with LPS (1 ng and 10 ng), H-ASD, and OVA in a normal saline solution. The lung pathology, cytological profiles in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF), the levels of inflammatory cytokines/chemokines in BALF and OVA-specific immunoglobulin in serum were investigated.ResultsThe LPS exhibited no response to the production of TNF-α and IL-6 in BMDMs from TLR4-/-, but did from TLR2-/-. H-ASD aggravated the LPS-induced neutrophilic lung inflammation. In the presence of OVA, LPS increased the level of eosinophils slightly and induced trace levels of Th2 cytokines IL-5 and IL-13 at the levels of 1 ng and 10 ng. In the presence of OVA and H-ASD, LPS induced severe eosinophil infiltration and proliferation of goblet cells in the airways as well as remarkable increases in Th2 cytokines IL-5 and IL-13 in BALF. The mixture containing LPS (1 ng) showed adjuvant activity on OVA-specific IgE and IgG1 production.ConclusionsThe results suggest that H-ASD with naturally-occurring levels of LPS enhances OVA-induced lung eosinophilia via increases in Th2-mediated cytokines and antigen-specific immunoglobulin. These results indicate that LPS is a strong candidate for being a major aggravating substance in ASD