Urban Water Availability and Potential Future Stressors : A Case Study of Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina

The line that once existed between geographic regions that are considered "water poor" and "water rich" is now being blurred. Water managers in "water rich" regions, such as the Southeastern United States, are starting to realize that their abundant water supplies are not limitless. This holds true for North Carolina due to its current and future situation with regard to projected population growth, potential industrial demand changes, and impacts of climate change. Cities near Research Triangle Park (RTP), specifically Raleigh and Durham, have seen and will continue to see rapid population growth well into the mid-21st century. Available water supplies are predicted to be unsupportive of a growing Raleigh as early as 2040 and of Durham as early as 2050. This thesis addresses how these factors could impact water availability in the future. Different population projections are used to model the impact of residential water demands on water availability. Industrial demand change is modeled by the addition of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to North Carolina, which was legalized in 2012. The water demand data for fracking from the Marcellus shale is used to develop projections for the increased industrial water demands from fracking. Historical stream flow and hydrograph data show past water availability which is used to model how stream flow could be altered in the future due to variation in precipitation patterns because of climate change. Ultimately population growth has the biggest impact on water supply. Climate change has the potential to increase or decrease supply; however, an increase in supply is not enough to combat the high water demands of a growing population. Hydraulic fracturing also adds stress to the system, but the severity of the stress depends on the number wells and the specific amount of water needed to "frack" each well. In combination, these three factors have a substantial impact on water availability in Raleigh-Durham. Overall, regardless of the scenarios in this research with regard to population growth, climate change, and increased industrial demands, Raleigh and Durham will face a shortage of water availability in the future.  M.A

Conducting a drought-specific THIRA (Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment): A powerful tool for integrating all-hazard mitigation and drought planning efforts to increase drought mitigation quality

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address potential drought planning gaps, we developed, conducted, and evaluated a Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), a FEMA risk assessment process, which solely focused on drought. This drought-specific THIRA consisted of a one-day workshop in which stakeholders and agency experts from the Platte River Basin in Nebraska worked collaboratively to determine the necessary resources for successfully managing a worst-case drought scenario in the region. We analyzed the findings of this workshop and compared them against the current drought planning activities in the Platte River Basin and found that the current drought planning activities would not be effective against a worst-case drought, in terms of reducing drought vulnerability and increasing preparedness and response efforts. Our use of a drought-specific THIRA and drought plan evaluation provides both a quality process to increase drought mitigation efforts and a process to strengthen the integration between stand-alone drought plans and hazard mitigation plans

Ecological Drought: Accounting for the Non-Human Impacts of Water Shortage in the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin, Montana, USA

Water laws and drought plans are used to prioritize and allocate scarce water resources. Both have historically been human-centric, failing to account for non-human water needs. In this paper, we examine the development of instream flow legislation and the evolution of drought planning to highlight the growing concern for the non-human impacts of water scarcity. Utilizing a new framework for ecological drought, we analyzed five watershed-scale drought plans in southwestern Montana, USA to understand if, and how, the ecological impacts of drought are currently being assessed. We found that while these plans do account for some ecological impacts, it is primarily through the narrow lens of impacts to fish as measured by water temperature and streamflow. The latter is typically based on the same ecological principles used to determine instream flow requirements. We also found that other resource plans in the same watersheds (e.g., Watershed Restoration Plans, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Watershed Assessments or United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Plans) identify a broader range of ecological drought risks. Given limited resources and the potential for mutual benefits and synergies, we suggest greater integration between various planning processes could result in a more holistic consideration of water needs and uses across the landscape

The patchwork governance of ecologically available water: A case study in the Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess the extent to which the collective governance regime creates gaps in responsibility. We find the water governance regime includes a range of nested mechanisms that in various ways facilitate or hinder the governance of EAW. We conclude the current multilevel governance regime leaves certain aspects of EAW unaddressed and does not adequately account for the interconnections between water in different parts of the ecosystem, creating integrative gaps. We suggest that more intentional and robust coordination could provide a means to address these gaps

Mapping the drivers of parasitic weed abundance at a national scale : a new approach applied to Striga asiatica in the mid‐west of Madagascar

The parasitic weed genus Striga causes huge losses to crop production in sub‐Saharan Africa, estimated to be in excess of $7 billion per year. There is a paucity of reliable distribution data for Striga ; however, such data are urgently needed to understand current drivers, better target control efforts, as well as to predict future risks. To address this, we developed a methodology to enable rapid, large‐scale monitoring of Striga populations. We used this approach to uncover the factors that currently drive the abundance and distribution of Striga asiatica in Madagascar. Two long‐distance transects were established across the middle‐west region of Madagascar in which S. asiatica abundance in fields adjacent to the road was estimated. Management, crop structure and soil data were also collected. Analysis of the data suggests that crop variety, companion crop and previous crop were correlated with Striga density. A positive relationship between within‐field Striga density and the density of the nearest neighbouring fields indicates that spatial configuration and connectivity of suitable habitats is also important in determining Striga spread. Our results demonstrate that we are able to capture distribution and management data for Striga density at a landscape scale and use this to understand the ecological and agronomic drivers of abundance. The importance of crop varieties and cropping patterns is significant, as these are key socio‐economic elements of Malagasy cropping practices. Therefore, they have the potential to be promoted as readily available control options, rather than novel technologies requiring introduction

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events; 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: https://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/panmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).</p

The diversity and evolution of pollination systems in large plant clades: Apocynaceae as a case study

Background and Aims Large clades of angiosperms are often characterized by diverse interactions with pollinators, but how these pollination systems are structured phylogenetically and biogeographically is still uncertain for most families. Apocynaceae is a clade of >5300 species with a worldwide distribution. A database representing >10 % of species in the family was used to explore the diversity of pollinators and evolutionary shifts in pollination systems across major clades and regions. Methods The database was compiled from published and unpublished reports. Plants were categorized into broad pollination systems and then subdivided to include bimodal systems. These were mapped against the five major divisions of the family, and against the smaller clades. Finally, pollination systems were mapped onto a phylogenetic reconstruction that included those species for which sequence data are available, and transition rates between pollination systems were calculated. Key Results Most Apocynaceae are insect pollinated with few records of bird pollination. Almost three-quarters of species are pollinated by a single higher taxon (e.g. flies or moths); 7 % have bimodal pollination systems, whilst the remaining approx. 20 % are insect generalists. The less phenotypically specialized flowers of the Rauvolfioids are pollinated by a more restricted set of pollinators than are more complex flowers within the Apocynoids + Periplocoideae + Secamonoideae + Asclepiadoideae (APSA) clade. Certain combinations of bimodal pollination systems are more common than others. Some pollination systems are missing from particular regions, whilst others are over-represented. Conclusions Within Apocynaceae, interactions with pollinators are highly structured both phylogenetically and biogeographically. Variation in transition rates between pollination systems suggest constraints on their evolution, whereas regional differences point to environmental effects such as filtering of certain pollinators from habitats. This is the most extensive analysis of its type so far attempted and gives important insights into the diversity and evolution of pollination systems in large clades

Exploring New Opportunities for Drought Risk Assessment and Awareness to Enhance Drought Risk Management at the Local Levels

Drought management in the United States has traditionally taken form of state-level drought since there is no Federal requirement that requires planning that is specifically drought focused. Overtime, drought planning has become more common practice at the state level, with 46 of the 50 states currently having either a drought mitigation or response plan established. Drought planning is also increasing at the sub-state and local level since state-level drought plans may not adequately reduce drought impacts at smaller scales. Despite the growth of drought planning efforts, drought management typically focuses on crisis management, reactive management approaches during a drought, rather than risk management that focuses on approaches to reduce impacts before a drought period. Successful drought risk management is built upon three pillars: (1) monitoring and early warning; (2) impact and vulnerability assessment; and (3) mitigation, preparedness, and response. This work is separated into three articles, focusing on the second and third pillars of drought risk management. The first article in this dissertation is a risk assessment of urban counties in the United States, providing the foundation for creating an Urban Drought Risk Index. The second article evaluates survey data of land use planners across the United States to understand their perceptions and awareness of drought. The final article uses the findings of a drought-specific Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) workshop (FEMA risk assessment process, focused solely on drought) in the Platte River Basin, NE to evaluate the current drought planning efforts in the study area. The combination of these three articles provide three new and effective opportunities to reduce drought risk at the local levels through increasing the integration of drought planning beyond the traditional drought planning disciplines, which allows for a more comprehensive drought risk management. In addition, approaches used in these three articles can be synthesized together through the use of a drought-specific THIRA process where land use planners are included, providing the ability to link the concepts, outcomes, and recommendations produced by the three articles

Exploring New Opportunities for Drought Risk Assessment and Awareness to Enhance Drought Risk Management at the Local Levels

Drought management in the United States has traditionally taken form of state-level drought since there is no Federal requirement that requires planning that is specifically drought focused. Overtime, drought planning has become more common practice at the state level, with 46 of the 50 states currently having either a drought mitigation or response plan established. Drought planning is also increasing at the sub-state and local level since state-level drought plans may not adequately reduce drought impacts at smaller scales. Despite the growth of drought planning efforts, drought management typically focuses on crisis management, reactive management approaches during a drought, rather than risk management that focuses on approaches to reduce impacts before a drought period. Successful drought risk management is built upon three pillars: (1) monitoring and early warning; (2) impact and vulnerability assessment; and (3) mitigation, preparedness, and response. This work is separated into three articles, focusing on the second and third pillars of drought risk management. The first article in this dissertation is a risk assessment of urban counties in the United States, providing the foundation for creating an Urban Drought Risk Index. The second article evaluates survey data of land use planners across the United States to understand their perceptions and awareness of drought. The final article uses the findings of a drought-specific Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) workshop (FEMA risk assessment process, focused solely on drought) in the Platte River Basin, NE to evaluate the current drought planning efforts in the study area. The combination of these three articles provide three new and effective opportunities to reduce drought risk at the local levels through increasing the integration of drought planning beyond the traditional drought planning disciplines, which allows for a more comprehensive drought risk management. In addition, approaches used in these three articles can be synthesized together through the use of a drought-specific THIRA process where land use planners are included, providing the ability to link the concepts, outcomes, and recommendations produced by the three articles

Conducting a drought-specific THIRA (Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment): A powerful tool for integrating all-hazard mitigation and drought planning efforts to increase drought mitigation quality

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address potential drought planning gaps, we developed, conducted, and evaluated a Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), a FEMA risk assessment process, which solely focused on drought. This drought-specific THIRA consisted of a one-day workshop in which stakeholders and agency experts from the Platte River Basin in Nebraska worked collaboratively to determine the necessary resources for successfully managing a worst-case drought scenario in the region. We analyzed the findings of this workshop and compared them against the current drought planning activities in the Platte River Basin and found that the current drought planning activities would not be effective against a worst-case drought, in terms of reducing drought vulnerability and increasing preparedness and response efforts. Our use of a drought-specific THIRA and drought plan evaluation provides both a quality process to increase drought mitigation efforts and a process to strengthen the integration between stand-alone drought plans and hazard mitigation plans