Political legitimacy and European monetary union: contracts, constitutionalism and the normative logic of two-level games

The crisis of the euro area has severely tested the political authority of the European Union (EU). The crisis raises questions of normative legitimacy both because the EU is a normative order and because the construction of economic and monetary union (EMU) rested upon a theory that stressed the normative value of the depoliticization of money. However, this theory neglected the normative logic of the two-level game implicit in EMU. It also neglected the need for an impartial and publically acceptable constitutional order to acknowledge reasonable disagreements. By contrast, we contend that any reconstruction of the EU's economic constitution has to pay attention to reconciling a European monetary order with the legitimacy of member state governance. The EU requires a two-level contract to meet this standard. Member states must treat each other as equals and be representative of and accountable to their citizens on an equitable basis. These criteria entail that the EU's political legitimacy requires a form of demoicracy that we call ‘republican intergovernmentalism’. Only rules that could be acceptable as the product of a political constitution among the peoples of Europe can ultimately meet the required standards of political legitimacy. Such a political constitution could be brought about through empowering national parliaments in EU decision-making

Survey Expectations

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations.Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectationsrather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectationsare reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper thenprovides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting

Patronage priest and parish in the Archdeaconry of Huntingdon 1109-1547

The aim of the thesis is to trace the development of the parochial ministry in the archdeaconry of Huntingdon from 1109 to 1547 and to examine the effects on this ministry of patronage exercised by the crown, the laity, the monasteries; the clergy, the colleges and the pope. The Introduction describes the area of ministry,namely the archdeaconry and the different types of parish within it. This is followed by a discussion of the source materials used in this study. The thesis is divided into three main sections under the headings, 'Patronage and Patrons', 'The Clergy' and 'The Church and The Laity'. The section on 'Patronage and Patrons' examines the use and abuse of the patronage system. The appropriation of churches by the monastic houses and its effect on the parishes is examined in detail. Disputes which affected all forms of patronage are also considered. The section on 'The Clergy' deals with their life and work in the archdeaconry. The attempts made by the bishops to provide an educated clergy is examined in detail. The problems connected with absenteeism and pluralism and the effects on ministry are considered. The section on 'The Church and The Laity' relies very much on mid-fifteenth-century documents as little material is available for the earlier period. The section shows how much the laity were involved in the life of the Church, especially in their membership of fraternities and guilds. Wills which provide details of life during this later period are examined. A special section on the controversial subject of the response of both the clergy and the laity to the sixteenth century reforms follows. In the final chapter observations are made on the whole period and some conclusions are drawn on the work of the Church throughout four and a half centuries

The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models, appropriately identified, are estimated to draw out the differential effect of information on expectations and realisations. Rationality is then tested and we seek to explain deviations of realisations from expectations at a micro-economic level, possibly with reference to macroeconomic shocks. A bivariate regime-switching ordered probit model, distinguishing between states of rationality and irrationality, is then estimated to identify whether individual characteristics affect the probability of an individual using some alternative model to rationality to form their expectations. --household behaviour,expectation formation

Survey Expectations

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.models of expectations formation, survey data, heterogeneity, tests of rational expectations

Pension Arrangements and Retirement Choices in Europe: A Comparison of the British, Danish and German Systems. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 5, 1 February 2005

This paper develops a general equilibrium simulation model of a heterogeneous population in which both consumption/saving and labour/leisure choices are endogenous. The authors use it to explore the effects of the different state benefit systems on the labour supply of old and older workers in Denmark, Germany and the UK. In broad terms, they find that differences in labour force participation can be accounted for by the differences in benefit structures. These conclusions are not altered when they allow for the effects of poor health at different ages. The UK system is found to be preferable by young persons while the German arrangement is preferred by old and older people (who make up the majority in the simulated population)

Annuities and Aggregate Mortality Uncertainty

This paper explores the effect of aggregate mortality risk on thepricing of annuities. It uses a two-period model; in the second period people face a constant but intiially unknown risk of death. Old people can either carry the aggregat emortlaity risk for themselves or buy annuities which are sold by young people. A market-clearing price for such annuties is established. It is found that old people would, given the choice, decide to carry a considerable part of aggregate mortality risk for themselves.

If you believe Brexit is a mistake, you have a democratic duty to oppose it

Is there a duty to implement the EU referendum result? Not if you believe it to be a profound mistake, argues Albert Weale. We cannot sensibly and intelligibly use the language of ‘the will of the people’ in respect of the referendum result. It is not simply a device for the registering of the preferences of individuals. It must also be the institutionalisation of a public discussion