Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle dies with instantaneous rate $\mu_n$. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics

Solução glicosada hipertônica no mesentério e no peritônio de ratos: estudo macroscópico e microscópico

PURPOSE: The objective of the experimental study is to detect the macroscopic and microscopic alterations of the mesenterium and parietal peritoneum when hypertonic glucose aqueous solution 10%-25% is administrated into the peritoneal cavity of the rat. METHODS: 90 Wistar females young rats adults were used weighin between 180-250 g, numbered 1 to 90, establishing unique group and divided in three groups (A, B, C) of 30 animals chosen aleatory manner. 0,9% saline solution was used called control group, or group A, 10% glucose solution named group B, and in the others 30 was used 25% glucose solution named group C, differing in the observation period, (06h, 24h and 48h), but with the same procedure. A midline abdominal wall laparotomy was made and in the animals of the control group was injected 2 ml of a 0,9% saline solution into the peritoneal cavity. After, we made a suture in mass without to include the peritoneum. For the others groups (B, C) the rats received 10% glucose solution and 25% glucose solution injected into the peritoneal cavity respectively. All groups were kept under observation and the results were submitted to statistical analysis by a longitudinal and transversal comparative study. RESULTS: A new surgery was done in 6h, 24h and 48h, and we observed in macroscopic evaluation, the presence of fluid, serous uniforme and rosy all over the cavity. Vascular congestion was present. We dried out 90 fragments of mesenterium and 90 fragments of parietal peritonium bilateral. In the microscopic study, necrosis was not present. For the mesenterium histological study we observed 16 cases (17,8%) unspecific chronic inflammation, 30 cases (33,4%) hiperplasic linfonod, 10 cases (11,1%) high vascular congestion, 6 cases (6,6%) reaction fibrosis and 28 cases (31,1%) no alteration. For the parietal peritonium histological study we observed 6 cases (3,3%) reaction fibrosis and 174 cases (96,7%) no alteration. Giant cell was not present. In the statistical analisys statistic there is no significance between the groups (p>0,05). CONCLUSION: Hypertonic glucose solution and NaCl 0,9% on the mesenterium and parietal peritonium do not produce tissue necrosis in a rat and the inflammation process has the same intensity.OBJETIVO: Investigar as alterações macroscópicas e microscópicas do mesentério e do peritônio parietal quando se administra a solução aquosa de glicose hipertônica a 10% e a 25% na cavidade peritoneal de rato. MÉTODOS: 90 ratos fêmeas (n=90), adultos, Wistar, jovens, com peso variando de 180 a 250 gramas foram divididos em 3 sub-grupos (A, B e C) contendo cada um 30 animais com procedimentos idênticos, diferindo apenas no período de observação. Os números de 1 a 30 constituem o grupo A ou grupo-controle (NaCl 0,9%), os números de 31 a 60 constituem o grupo B ou grupo-glicose a 10% e os números de 61 a 90 constituem o grupo C ou grupo- glicose a 25%. Realizando-se posteriormente laparotomia com incisão mediana longitudinal de pele a 2 cm abaixo do processo Xiphoideus sterni, estendendo-se por 3 cm caudalmente na linha média ventral. A escolha do procedimento a ser realizado para introdução na cavidade peritoneal de 2 ml de uma solução de cloreto de sódio 0,9% (controle), de glicose hipertônica a 10% e de glicose hipertônica a 25%. Em períodos correspondentes às 6h, 24h e 48h de pós-operatório, os animais de cada grupo foram reoperados, sendo realizada avaliação macroscópica e microscópica além dos registros das alterações histológicas do mesentério e peritônio parietal. RESULTADOS: Na microscopia do mesentério observou-se que 30 animais (33,4%) apresentaram linfonodos hiperplásicos; 6 animais (6,6%) com fibrose reacional; 10 animais (11,1%) com intensa congestão vascular; 16 animais (17,8%) com inflamação crônica inespecífica; 28 casos (31,1%) sem alteração. A microscopia do peritônio revelou 6 casos com fibrose reacional (3,3%) 174 casos (96,7%) sem alteração histológica. CONCLUSÃO: As soluções de glicose a 10% e a 25% não causam necrose tecidual quando introduzidas na cavidade peritoneal. O processo reacional inflamatório é de igual intensidade tecidual comparando-se ao uso da solução de NaCl a 0,9%.UNCISAL DepartmentUFAL Morphology Department and Human AnatomyUNIFESP-EPM Surgery DepartmentUNIFESP, EPM, Surgery DepartmentSciEL

Signalling plasticity and energy saving in a tropical bushcricket

Males of the tropical bushcricket Mecopoda elongata synchronize their acoustic advertisement signals (chirps) in interactions with other males. However, synchrony is not perfect and distinct leader and follower roles are often maintained. In entrainment experiments in which conspecific signals were presented at various rates, chirps displayed as follower showed notable signal plasticity. Follower chirps were shortened by reducing the number and duration of syllables, especially those of low and medium amplitude. The degree of shortening depended on the time delay between leader and follower signals and the sound level of the entraining stimulus. The same signal plasticity was evident in male duets, with the effect that the last syllables of highest amplitude overlapped more strongly. Respiratory measurements showed that solo singing males producing higher chirp rates suffered from higher metabolic costs compared to males singing at lower rates. In contrast, respiratory rate was rather constant during a synchronous entrainment to a conspecific signal repeated at various rates. This allowed males to maintain a steady duty cycle, associated with a constant metabolic rate. Results are discussed with respect to the preference for leader signals in females and the possible benefits males may gain by overlapping their follower signals in a chorus

Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A response rate of 46% (n = 92) was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30) respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient anxiety still remains, despite acknowledgement of moral and ethical responsibility.</p

The Initial Mass Function in the Galactic Center

The Galactic Center contains the most massive young clusters in the Galaxy and serves as the closest example of a massive starburst region. Our recent results suggest that the Galactic Center environment produces massive clusters with relatively flat initial mass functions, as might be expected on theoretical grounds. I will discuss these recent results, along with evidence for star formation in the immediate vicinity of the super massive black hole at the Galactic Center. The results of this work might be useful in extrapolating to other galactic centers with similar conditions, as well as other starburst regions

The hypoxic cancer secretome induces pre-metastatic bone lesions through lysyl oxidase

Tumour metastasis is a complex process involving reciprocal interplay between cancer cells and host stroma at both primary and secondary sites, and is strongly influenced by microenvironmental factors such as hypoxia. Tumour-secreted proteins play a crucial role in these interactions and present strategic therapeutic potential. Metastasis of breast cancer to the bone affects approximately 85% of patients with advanced disease and renders them largely untreatable. Specifically, osteolytic bone lesions, where bone is destroyed, lead to debilitating skeletal complications and increased patient morbidity and mortality. The molecular interactions governing the early events of osteolytic lesion formation are currently unclear. Here we show hypoxia to be specifically associated with bone relapse in patients with oestrogen-receptor negative breast cancer. Global quantitative analysis of the hypoxic secretome identified lysyl oxidase (LOX) as significantly associated with bone-tropism and relapse. High expression of LOX in primary breast tumours or systemic delivery of LOX leads to osteolytic lesion formation whereas silencing or inhibition of LOX activity abrogates tumour-driven osteolytic lesion formation. We identify LOX as a novel regulator of NFATc1-driven osteoclastogenesis,independent of RANK ligand, which disrupts normal bone homeostasisleading to the formation of focal pre-metastatic lesions. We show that these lesions subsequently provide a platform for circulating tumour cells to colonize and form bone metastases. Our study identifies a novel mechanism of regulation of bone homeostasis and metastasis, opening up opportunities for novel therapeutic intervention with important clinical implications

Measurement of CP-violation asymmetries in D0 to Ks pi+ pi-

We report a measurement of time-integrated CP-violation asymmetries in the resonant substructure of the three-body decay D0 to Ks pi+ pi- using CDF II data corresponding to 6.0 invfb of integrated luminosity from Tevatron ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV. The charm mesons used in this analysis come from D*+(2010) to D0 pi+ and D*-(2010) to D0bar pi-, where the production flavor of the charm meson is determined by the charge of the accompanying pion. We apply a Dalitz-amplitude analysis for the description of the dynamic decay structure and use two complementary approaches, namely a full Dalitz-plot fit employing the isobar model for the contributing resonances and a model-independent bin-by-bin comparison of the D0 and D0bar Dalitz plots. We find no CP-violation effects and measure an asymmetry of ACP = (-0.05 +- 0.57 (stat) +- 0.54 (syst))% for the overall integrated CP-violation asymmetry, consistent with the standard model prediction.Comment: 15 page

Measurement of the Forward-Backward Asymmetry in the B -> K(*) mu+ mu- Decay and First Observation of the Bs -> phi mu+ mu- Decay

We reconstruct the rare decays $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$, $B^0 \to K^{*}(892)^0\mu^+\mu^-$, and $B^0_s \to \phi(1020)\mu^+\mu^-$ in a data sample corresponding to $4.4 {\rm fb^{-1}}$ collected in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 {\rm TeV}$ by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Using $121 \pm 16$ $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$ and $101 \pm 12$ $B^0 \to K^{*0}\mu^+\mu^-$ decays we report the branching ratios. In addition, we report the measurement of the differential branching ratio and the muon forward-backward asymmetry in the $B^+$ and $B^0$ decay modes, and the $K^{*0}$ longitudinal polarization in the $B^0$ decay mode with respect to the squared dimuon mass. These are consistent with the theoretical prediction from the standard model, and most recent determinations from other experiments and of comparable accuracy. We also report the first observation of the $B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^- decay and measure its branching ratio${\mathcal{B}}(B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^-) = [1.44 \pm 0.33 \pm 0.46] \times 10^{-6}$using$27 \pm 6$signal events. This is currently the most rare$B^0_s$ decay observed.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012