404 research outputs found
Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies
Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people.
While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school
closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and
efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based
epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining
the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are
computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal
strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as
epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget
needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling
technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed
budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling
theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using
Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling
and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting
and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only
a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to
the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological
decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a
statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the
confidence of an arm recommendation
Evaluating the potential for the environmentally sustainable control of foot and mouth disease in Sub-Saharan Africa
Strategies to control transboundary diseases have in the past generated unintended negative consequences for both the environment and local human populations. Integrating perspectives from across disciplines, including livestock, veterinary and conservation sectors, is necessary for identifying disease control strategies that optimise environmental goods and services at the wildlife-livestock interface. Prompted by the recent development of a global strategy for the control and elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this paper seeks insight into the consequences of, and rational options for potential FMD control measures in relation to environmental, conservation and human poverty considerations in Africa. We suggest a more environmentally nuanced process of FMD control that safe-guards the integrity of wild populations and the ecosystem dynamics on which human livelihoods depend while simultaneously improving socio-economic conditions of rural people. In particular, we outline five major issues that need to be considered: 1) improved understanding of the different FMD viral strains and how they circulate between domestic and wildlife populations; 2) an appreciation for the economic value of wildlife for many African countries whose presence might preclude the country from ever achieving an FMD-free status; 3) exploring ways in which livestock production can be improved without compromising wildlife such as implementing commodity-based trading schemes; 4) introducing a participatory approach involving local farmers and the national veterinary services in the control of FMD; and 5) finally the possibility that transfrontier conservation might offer new hope of integrating decision-making at the wildlife-livestock interface
Health Newscasts for Increasing Influenza Vaccination Coverage: An Inductive Reasoning Game Approach
Both pandemic and seasonal influenza are receiving more attention from mass media than ever before. Topics such as epidemic severity and vaccination are changing the way in which we perceive the utility of disease prevention. Voluntary influenza vaccination has been recently modeled using inductive reasoning games. It has thus been found that severe epidemics may occur because individuals do not vaccinate and, instead, attempt to benefit from the immunity of their peers. Such epidemics could be prevented by voluntary vaccination if incentives were offered. However, a key assumption has been that individuals make vaccination decisions based on whether there was an epidemic each influenza season; no other epidemiological information is available to them. In this work, we relax this assumption and investigate the consequences of making more informed vaccination decisions while no incentives are offered. We obtain three major results. First, individuals will not cooperate enough to constantly prevent influenza epidemics through voluntary vaccination no matter how much they learned about influenza epidemiology. Second, broadcasting epidemiological information richer than whether an epidemic occurred may stabilize the vaccination coverage and suppress severe influenza epidemics. Third, the stable vaccination coverage follows the trend of the perceived benefit of vaccination. However, increasing the amount of epidemiological information released to the public may either increase or decrease the perceived benefit of vaccination. We discuss three scenarios where individuals know, in addition to whether there was an epidemic, (i) the incidence, (ii) the vaccination coverage and (iii) both the incidence and the vaccination coverage, every influenza season. We show that broadcasting both the incidence and the vaccination coverage could yield either better or worse vaccination coverage than broadcasting each piece of information on its own
A stakeholder co-design approach for developing a community pharmacy service to enhance screening and management of atrial fibrillation
The authors would like to thank all participants in this research for their
valuable input into the co-design process.Background: Community pharmacies provide a suitable setting to promote self-screening programs aimed at
enhancing the early detection of atrial fibrillation (AF). Developing and implementing novel community pharmacy
services (CPSs) is a complex and acknowledged challenge, which requires comprehensive planning and the
participation of relevant stakeholders. Co-design processes are participatory research approaches that can enhance
the development, evaluation and implementation of health services. The aim of this study was to co-design a
pharmacist-led CPS aimed at enhancing self-monitoring/screening of AF.
Methods: A 3-step co-design process was conducted using qualitative methods: (1) interviews and focus group
with potential service users (n = 8) to identify key needs and concerns; (2) focus group with a mixed group of
stakeholders (n = 8) to generate a preliminary model of the service; and (3) focus group with community pharmacy
owners and managers (n = 4) to explore the feasibility and appropriateness of the model. Data were analysed
qualitatively to identify themes and intersections between themes. The JeMa2 model to conceptualize pharmacybased
health programs was used to build a theoretical model of the service.
Results: Stakeholders delineated: a clear target population (i.e., individuals β₯65 years old, with hypertension, with or
without previous AF or stroke); the components of the service (i.e., patient education; self-monitoring at home;
results evaluation, referral and follow-up); and a set of circumstances that may influence the implementation of the
service (e.g., quality of the service, competency of the pharmacist, inter-professional relationships, etc.). A number of
strategies were recommended to enable implementation (e.g.,. endorsement by leading cardiovascular
organizations, appropriate communication methods and channels between the pharmacy and the general medical
practice settings, etc.).
Conclusion: A novel and preliminary model of a CPS aimed at enhancing the management of AF was generated
from this participatory process. This model can be used to inform decision making processes aimed at adopting
and piloting of the service. It is expected the co-designed service has been adapted to suit existing needs of
patients and current care practices, which, in turn, may increase the feasibility and acceptance of the service when
it is implemented into a real setting.This work was funded by Covidien Pty Ltd. (Medtronic Australasia Pty Ltd)
[UTS Project code: PRO16β0688], which is the company that has the rights to distribute the device Microlife BP A200 AFIB in Australia. Also, funding for
this research has been provided by a UTS Chancellorβs postdoctoral
fellowship awarded to the first author of this article (ID number:
2013001605)
A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws
A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their
models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article
reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a
contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical
galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits
and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy
envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust,
bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of
pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving
sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are
presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero'
relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe
today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies,
whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling.
For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact
elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to
appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar
Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references
incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to
Springer: 07-June-201
Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector
The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets
containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass
energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The
measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1.
The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary
decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from
the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is
used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive
b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the
range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet
cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the
range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets
and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are
compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed
between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG +
Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet
cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive
cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse
momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final
version published in European Physical Journal
Genetic Overexpression of NR2B Subunit Enhances Social Recognition Memory for Different Strains and Species
The ability to learn and remember conspecifics is essential for the establishment and maintenance of social groups. Many animals, including humans, primates and rodents, depend on stable social relationships for survival. Social learning and social recognition have become emerging areas of interest for neuroscientists but are still not well understood. It has been established that several hormones play a role in the modulation of social recognition including estrogen, oxytocin and arginine vasopression. Relatively few studies have investigated how social recognition might be improved or enhanced. In this study, we investigate the role of the NMDA receptor in social recognition memory, specifically the consequences of altering the ratio of the NR2BβΆNR2A subunits in the forebrain regions in social behavior. We produced transgenic mice in which the NR2B subunit of the NMDA receptor was overexpressed postnatally in the excitatory neurons of the forebrain areas including the cortex, amygdala and hippocampus. We investigated the ability of both our transgenic animals and their wild-type littermate to learn and remember juvenile conspecifics using both 1-hr and 24-hr memory tests. Our experiments show that the wild-type animals and NR2B transgenic mice preformed similarly in the 1-hr test. However, transgenic mice showed better performances in 24-hr tests of recognizing animals of a different strain or animals of a different species. We conclude that NR2B overexpression in the forebrain enhances social recognition memory for different strains and animal species
Inhibition of Hedgehog Signaling Antagonizes Serous Ovarian Cancer Growth in a Primary Xenograft Model
Recent evidence links aberrant activation of Hedgehog (Hh) signaling with the pathogenesis of several cancers including medulloblastoma, basal cell, small cell lung, pancreatic, prostate and ovarian. This investigation was designed to determine if inhibition of this pathway could inhibit serous ovarian cancer growth.We utilized an in vivo pre-clinical model of serous ovarian cancer to characterize the anti-tumor activity of Hh pathway inhibitors cyclopamine and a clinically applicable derivative, IPI-926. Primary human serous ovarian tumor tissue was used to generate tumor xenografts in mice that were subsequently treated with cyclopamine or IPI-926.Both compounds demonstrated significant anti-tumor activity as single agents. When IPI-926 was used in combination with paclitaxel and carboplatinum (T/C), no synergistic effect was observed, though sustained treatment with IPI-926 after cessation of T/C continued to suppress tumor growth. Hh pathway activity was analyzed by RT-PCR to assess changes in Gli1 transcript levels. A single dose of IPI-926 inhibited mouse stromal Gli1 transcript levels at 24 hours with unchanged human intra-tumor Gli1 levels. Chronic IPI-926 therapy for 21 days, however, inhibited Hh signaling in both mouse stromal and human tumor cells. Expression data from the micro-dissected stroma in human serous ovarian tumors confirmed the presence of Gli1 transcript and a significant association between elevated Gli1 transcript levels and worsened survival.IPI-926 treatment inhibits serous tumor growth suggesting the Hh signaling pathway contributes to the pathogenesis of ovarian cancer and may hold promise as a novel therapeutic target, especially in the maintenance setting
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