Validation of models with constant bias: an applied approach

Objective. This paper presents extensions to the statistical validation method based on the procedure of Freese when a model shows constant bias (CB) in its predictions and illustrate the method with data from a new mechanistic model that predict weight gain in cattle. Materials and methods. The extensions were the hypothesis tests and maximum anticipated error for the alternative approach, and the confidence interval for a quantile of the distribution of errors. Results. The model evaluated showed CB, once the CB is removed and with a confidence level of 95%, the magnitude of the error does not exceed 0.575 kg. Therefore, the validated model can be used to predict the daily weight gain of cattle, although it will require an adjustment in its structure based on the presence of CB to increase the accuracy of its forecasts. Conclusions. The confidence interval for the 1-α quantile of the distribution of errors after correcting the constant bias, allows determining the top limit for the magnitude of the error of prediction and use it to evaluate the evolution of the model in the forecasting of the system. The confidence interval approach to validate a model is more informative than the hypothesis tests for the same purpose

Prevalencia de sarcopenia en adultos mayores de dos hogares geriátricos de Pereira, Colombia: Prevalence of sarcopenia in older adults in two retirement homes in Pereira, Colombia

Introduction: Is a risk factor for morbidity, mortality and disability in older adults, so its management is a priority in geriatrics. The aim of this article is to characterize a population of older adults from two geriatric homes and to establish the prevalence of sarcopenia and the degree of dependence. Methods: Cross-sectional study developed in the city of Pereira-Colombia. A population of 72 adults from 65 to 98 years of age was included, using probability sampling. Sarcopenia was determined by means of the Criteria of the European Consensus on Definition and Diagnosis of Sarcopenia, evaluating grip strength, skeletal muscle mass index, in case of sarcopenia, the severity of sarcopenia together with walking speed, and the degree of dependence according to the Barthel scale.  Results: 57 people participated. A total of 68.4% (n=39) were women. The median age was 83 years. Two percent had no sarcopenia, 9% had suspected sarcopenia, 28% had confirmed sarcopenia and 61% had severe sarcopenia. According to the Barthel scale, 31.5% were independent, 45.6% had mild, 15.8% moderate, 5.3% severe and 1.8% total dependence. Conclusions: The prevalence of sarcopenia in nursing homes in Pereira is higher compared to that reported in the literature. Similarly, being in a private nursing home does not guarantee a better physical condition and/or quality of lifeIntroducción: La sarcopenia es un factor de riesgo para morbilidad, mortalidad y discapacidad en adultos mayores, por lo que su manejo es prioridad en geriatría. El objetivo de este artículo, consiste en caracterizar una población de adultos mayores de dos hogares geriátricos y establecer la prevalencia de sarcopenia y el grado de dependencia. Métodos: Estudio de corte transversal desarrollado en la ciudad de Pereira-Colombia. Se incluyó a una población de 72 adultos desde los 65 hasta los 98 años, usando muestreo probabilístico. Se determinó la sarcopenia por medio de los Criterios del Consenso Europeo sobre Definición y Diagnóstico de Sarcopenia; evaluándose la fuerza de prensión, índice de masa muscular esquelética, en caso de presentarse sarcopenia, la severidad de esta junto a la velocidad de marcha, y el grado de dependencia según la escala de Barthel. Resultados: Participaron finalmente 57 personas. El 68,4% (n=39) eran mujeres. La mediana de la edad fue de 83 años. El 2% no presentó sarcopenia, 9% presentaban sospecha de sarcopenia, 28% tenían sarcopenia confirmada y 61% sarcopenia grave. Según la escala de Barthel, el 31,5% eran independientes, 45,6% tenían dependencia leve, 15,8% moderada, 5,3% severa y 1,8% total. Conclusiones: La prevalencia de sarcopenia en los hogares geriátricos de Pereira es mayor en comparación a la reportada en la literatura. Del mismo modo, encontrarse en un hogar geriátrico privado no garantiza una mejor condición física y/o calidad de vida

Phenotypic Characteristics and Copy Number Variants in a Cohort of Colombian Patients with VACTERL Association

VACTERL association (OMIM 192350) is a heterogeneous clinical condition characterized by congenital structural defects that include at least 3 of the following features: vertebral abnormalities, anal atresia, heart defects, tracheoesophageal fistula, renal malformations, and limb defects. The nonrandom occurrence of these malformations and some familial cases suggest a possible association with genetic factors such as chromosomal alterations, gene mutations, and inherited syndromes such as Fanconi anemia (FA). In this study, the clinical phenotype and its relationship with the presence of chromosomal abnormalities and FA were evaluated in 18 patients with VACTERL association. For this, a G-banded karyotype, array-comparative genomic hybridization, and chromosomal fragility test for FA were performed. All patients (10 female and 8 male) showed a broad clinical spectrum: 13 (72.2%) had vertebral abnormalities, 8 (44.4%) had anal atresia, 14 (77.8%) had heart defects, 8 (44.4%) had esophageal atresia, 10 (55.6%) had renal abnormalities, and 10 (55.6%) had limb defects. Chromosomal abnormalities and FA were ruled out. In 2 cases, the finding of microalterations, namely del(15)(q11.2) and dup(17)(q12), explained the phenotype; in 8 cases, copy number variations were classified as variants of unknown significance and as not yet described in VACTERL. These variants comprise genes related to important cellular functions and embryonic development

Asperities and barriers on the seismogenic zone in North Chile: state-of-the-art after the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla earthquake inferred by GPS and InSAR data

The Mw 7.7 2007 November 14 earthquake had an epicentre located close to the city of Tocopilla, at the southern end of a known seismic gap in North Chile. Through modelling of Global Positioning System (GPS) and radar interferometry (InSAR) data, we show that this event ruptured the deeper part of the seismogenic interface (30–50 km) and did not reach the surface. The earthquake initiated at the hypocentre and was arrested ~150 km south, beneath the Mejillones Peninsula, an area already identified as an important structural barrier between two segments of the Peru–Chile subduction zone. Our preferred models for the Tocopilla main shock show slip concentrated in two main asperities, consistent with previous inversions of seismological data. Slip appears to have propagated towards relatively shallow depths at its southern extremity, under the Mejillones Peninsula. Our analysis of post-seismic deformation suggests that small but still significant post-seismic slip occurred within the first 10 d after the main shock, and that it was mostly concentrated at the southern end of the rupture. The post-seismic deformation occurring in this period represents ~12–19 per cent of the coseismic deformation, of which ~30–55 per cent has been released aseismically. Post-seismic slip appears to concentrate within regions that exhibit low coseismic slip, suggesting that the afterslip distribution during the first month of the post-seismic interval complements the coseismic slip. The 2007 Tocopilla earthquake released only ~2.5 per cent of the moment deficit accumulated on the interface during the past 130 yr and may be regarded as a possible precursor of a larger subduction earthquake rupturing partially or completely the 500-km-long North Chile seismic gap

Potential role of new anticoagulants for prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolism in cancer patients

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), encompassing deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, represents a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer. Low molecular weight heparins are the preferred option for anticoagulation in cancer patients according to current clinical practice guidelines. Fondaparinux may also have a place in prevention of VTE in hospitalized cancer patients with additional risk factors and for initial treatment of VTE. Although low molecular weight heparins and fondaparinux are effective and safe, they require daily subcutaneous administration, which may be problematic for many patients, particularly if long-term treatment is needed. Studying anticoagulant therapy in oncology patients is challenging because this patient group has an increased risk of VTE and bleeding during anticoagulant therapy compared with the population without cancer. Risk factors for increased VTE and bleeding risk in these patients include concomitant treatments (surgery, chemotherapy, placement of central venous catheters, radiotherapy, hormonal therapy, angiogenesis inhibitors, antiplatelet drugs), supportive therapies (ie, steroids, blood transfusion, white blood cell growth factors, and erythropoiesis-stimulating agents), and tumor-related factors (local vessel damage and invasion, abnormalities in platelet function, and number). New anticoagulants in development for prophylaxis and treatment of VTE include parenteral compounds for once-daily administration (ie, semuloparin) or once-weekly dosing (ie, idraparinux and idrabiotaparinux), as well as orally active compounds (ie, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, edoxaban, betrixaban). In the present review, we discuss the pharmacology of the new anticoagulants, the results of clinical trials testing these new compounds in VTE, with special emphasis on studies that included cancer patients, and their potential advantages and drawbacks compared with existing therapies

Calibration of the Logarithmic-Periodic Dipole Antenna (LPDA) Radio Stations at the Pierre Auger Observatory using an Octocopter

An in-situ calibration of a logarithmic periodic dipole antenna with a frequency coverage of 30 MHz to 80 MHz is performed. Such antennas are part of a radio station system used for detection of cosmic ray induced air showers at the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the so-called Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA). The directional and frequency characteristics of the broadband antenna are investigated using a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) carrying a small transmitting antenna. The antenna sensitivity is described by the vector effective length relating the measured voltage with the electric-field components perpendicular to the incoming signal direction. The horizontal and meridional components are determined with an overall uncertainty of 7.4^{+0.9}_{-0.3} % and 10.3^{+2.8}_{-1.7} % respectively. The measurement is used to correct a simulated response of the frequency and directional response of the antenna. In addition, the influence of the ground conductivity and permittivity on the antenna response is simulated. Both have a negligible influence given the ground conditions measured at the detector site. The overall uncertainties of the vector effective length components result in an uncertainty of 8.8^{+2.1}_{-1.3} % in the square root of the energy fluence for incoming signal directions with zenith angles smaller than 60{\deg}.Comment: Published version. Updated online abstract only. Manuscript is unchanged with respect to v2. 39 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

Multi-resolution anisotropy studies of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a multi-resolution search for anisotropies in the arrival directions of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with local zenith angles up to $80^\circ$ and energies in excess of 4 EeV ($4 \times 10^{18}$ eV). This search is conducted by measuring the angular power spectrum and performing a needlet wavelet analysis in two independent energy ranges. Both analyses are complementary since the angular power spectrum achieves a better performance in identifying large-scale patterns while the needlet wavelet analysis, considering the parameters used in this work, presents a higher efficiency in detecting smaller-scale anisotropies, potentially providing directional information on any observed anisotropies. No deviation from isotropy is observed on any angular scale in the energy range between 4 and 8 EeV. Above 8 EeV, an indication for a dipole moment is captured; while no other deviation from isotropy is observed for moments beyond the dipole one. The corresponding $p$-values obtained after accounting for searches blindly performed at several angular scales, are $1.3 \times 10^{-5}$ in the case of the angular power spectrum, and $2.5 \times 10^{-3}$ in the case of the needlet analysis. While these results are consistent with previous reports making use of the same data set, they provide extensions of the previous works through the thorough scans of the angular scales.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Ultrahigh-energy neutrino follow-up of Gravitational Wave events GW150914 and GW151226 with the Pierre Auger Observatory

On September 14, 2015 the Advanced LIGO detectors observed their first gravitational-wave (GW) transient GW150914. This was followed by a second GW event observed on December 26, 2015. Both events were inferred to have arisen from the merger of black holes in binary systems. Such a system may emit neutrinos if there are magnetic fields and disk debris remaining from the formation of the two black holes. With the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory we can search for neutrinos with energy above 100 PeV from point-like sources across the sky with equatorial declination from about -65 deg. to +60 deg., and in particular from a fraction of the 90% confidence-level (CL) inferred positions in the sky of GW150914 and GW151226. A targeted search for highly-inclined extensive air showers, produced either by interactions of downward-going neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere or by the decays of tau leptons originating from tau-neutrino interactions in the Earth's crust (Earth-skimming neutrinos), yielded no candidates in the Auger data collected within $\pm 500$ s around or 1 day after the coordinated universal time (UTC) of GW150914 and GW151226, as well as in the same search periods relative to the UTC time of the GW candidate event LVT151012. From the non-observation we constrain the amount of energy radiated in ultrahigh-energy neutrinos from such remarkable events.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

VAMOS: a Pathfinder for the HAWC Gamma-Ray Observatory

VAMOS was a prototype detector built in 2011 at an altitude of 4100m a.s.l. in the state of Puebla, Mexico. The aim of VAMOS was to finalize the design, construction techniques and data acquisition system of the HAWC observatory. HAWC is an air-shower array currently under construction at the same site of VAMOS with the purpose to study the TeV sky. The VAMOS setup included six water Cherenkov detectors and two different data acquisition systems. It was in operation between October 2011 and May 2012 with an average live time of 30%. Besides the scientific verification purposes, the eight months of data were used to obtain the results presented in this paper: the detector response to the Forbush decrease of March 2012, and the analysis of possible emission, at energies above 30 GeV, for long gamma-ray bursts GRB111016B and GRB120328B.Comment: Accepted for pubblication in Astroparticle Physics Journal (20 pages, 10 figures). Corresponding authors: A.Marinelli and D.Zaboro