The Beta-Weibull Distribution on the Lattice of Integers

In this paper, a discrete analog of the beta-Weibull distribution is studied. This new distribution contains several discrete distributions as special sub-models. Some distributional and moment properties of the discrete beta-Weibull distribution as well as its order statistics are discussed. We will show that the hazard rate function of the new model can be increasing, decreasing, bathtub-shaped and upside-down bathtub. Estimation of the parameters is illustrated and the model with a real data set is also examined

Towards the Application of Uncertainty Analysis in Architectural Design Decision-Making

To this day, proper handling of uncertainties -including unknown variables in primary stages of a design, an actual climate data, occupants` behavior, and degradation of material properties over the time- remains as a primary challenge in an architectural design decision-making process. For many years, conventional methods based on the architects' intuition have been used as a standard approach dealing with uncertainties and estimating the resulting errors. However, with buildings reaching great complexity in both their design and material selections, conventional approaches come short to account for ever-existing but unpredictable uncertainties and prove incapable of meeting the growing demand for precise and reliable predictions. This study aims to develop a probability-based framework and associated prototypes to employ uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in architectural design decision-making. The current research explores an advanced physical model for thermal energy exchange characteristics of a hypothetical building and uses it as a test case to demonstrate the proposed probability-based analysis framework. The proposed framework provides a means to employ uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to improve reliability and effectiveness in a buildings design decision-making process

Detection of hepatitis G virus envelope protein E2 antibody in blood donors

SummaryObjectivesThe frequency of hepatitis G virus exposure in blood donors varies between 2.5% in Japan to 24.2% in Poland. Therefore there is a geographic difference in distribution of hepatitis G virus (HGV) in the world. We aimed to determine the frequency of HGV exposure in Iranian blood donors.MethodsBlood samples from 478 Iranian volunteer blood donors were tested. Positive anti-E2 samples were tested for HGV RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) using primers derived from the NS5A region of the viral genome.ResultsOf the 478 donors enrolled in our study, five (1%) were positive for anti-E2. Only one donor out of a total of three HBsAg-positive donors was co-infected with HGV, but we did not find HGV and HCV co-infection in our subjects. HGV RNA was not observed in the five anti-E2-positive subjects. We did not find HGV viremia and antibody at the same time.ConclusionA low frequency of HGV exposure in blood donors was found in this study. We did not observe co-infection of HGV with HCV in our subjects, supporting the theory that although the parenteral route is the most effective means of transmission, other routes such as sexual contact and intra-familial contact may also play a role in HGV transmission

Towards the Application of Uncertainty Analysis in Architectural Design Decision-Making

To this day, proper handling of uncertainties -including unknown variables in primary stages of a design, an actual climate data, occupants` behavior, and degradation of material properties over the time- remains as a primary challenge in an architectural design decision-making process. For many years, conventional methods based on the architects' intuition have been used as a standard approach dealing with uncertainties and estimating the resulting errors. However, with buildings reaching great complexity in both their design and material selections, conventional approaches come short to account for ever-existing but unpredictable uncertainties and prove incapable of meeting the growing demand for precise and reliable predictions. This study aims to develop a probability-based framework and associated prototypes to employ uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in architectural design decision-making. The current research explores an advanced physical model for thermal energy exchange characteristics of a hypothetical building and uses it as a test case to demonstrate the proposed probability-based analysis framework. The proposed framework provides a means to employ uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to improve reliability and effectiveness in a buildings design decision-making process

A Short Communication: Non-acid Nucleic Blood Multi-Factors Panels for Primary Breast Cancer Detection - A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

This study aimed to compare the non-acid nucleic blood multi-factor panels together and with mammography in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy in primary breast cancer detection (I, II, III, and IV). We systematically reviewed studies assessing non-acid nucleic blood tumor markers panels’ diagnostic value in both healthy women and patients (before any anticancer treatment) for the detection of primary breast cancer. Out of the 2358 titles initially identified, 12 studies and 9 panels were included in the network meta-analysis. Panels I (MSA + B2m) and J (GATA3 + E-cadherin) had the highest sensitivity in all stages of primary breast cancer but had no significant difference with mammography. Panels L (MSA + CA15–3) and B (M-CSF + CA15–3) had the highest specificity in all stages compared to other panels but no remarkable difference with mammography. Panels J (GATA3 + E-cadherin) and I (MSA + B2m) respectively had the highest accuracy in primary breast cancer detection but no considerable difference with mammography in terms of accuracy. Panel J, including GATA3 + E-cadherin, demonstrated a higher diagnostic value for primary breast cancer detection (I, II, III, and IV) than the rest of the panels

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed