The combined impact of hydropower plants and climate change on river runoff and fish habitats in lowland watersheds

Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic activity and climate change. The changes in flow regimes in Lithuanian lowland rivers due to the operation of hydropower plants (HPPs) and the impact of altered flow on some fish species have already been studied. The impact of climate change on future natural river runoff and the structure of fish assemblages was also investigated. However, it is still unknown how the combined effect of climate change and flow regulation related to hydropower generation may affect fish assemblages in the downstream river reaches below the Lithuanian HPPs. In this study, the physical habitat modelling system MesoHABSIM was used to simulate spatial and temporal changes in aquatic habitats availability for different fish species under the influence of HPP at different climate change scenarios. Changes in the available habitat were assessed for common fish species in four HPP-affected rivers representing different hydrological regions of Lithuania. The modelling results showed that the operation of HPP under climate change conditions in most rivers could be beneficial for small benthic fish species such as gudgeon Gobio gobio and stone loach Barbatula barbatula. Meanwhile, for larger fish species (e.g., chub Squalius cephalus and vimba Vimba vimba) the alteration in the temporal availability of suitable habitat was relatively higher

Prefrontal cortex activation and young driver behaviour: a fNIRS study

Road traffic accidents consistently show a significant over-representation for young, novice and particularly male drivers. This research examines the prefrontal cortex activation of young drivers and the changes in activation associated with manipulations of mental workload and inhibitory control. It also considers the explanation that a lack of prefrontal cortex maturation is a contributing factor to the higher accident risk in this young driver population. The prefrontal cortex is associated with a number of factors including mental workload and inhibitory control, both of which are also related to road traffic accidents. This experiment used functional near infrared spectroscopy to measure prefrontal cortex activity during five simulated driving tasks: one following task and four overtaking tasks at varying traffic densities which aimed to dissociate workload and inhibitory control. Age, experience and gender were controlled for throughout the experiment. The results showed that younger drivers had reduced prefrontal cortex activity compared to older drivers. When both mental workload and inhibitory control increased prefrontal cortex activity also increased, however when inhibitory control alone increased there were no changes in activity. Along with an increase in activity during overtaking manoeuvres, these results suggest that prefrontal cortex activation is more indicative of workload in the current task. There were no differences in the number of overtakes completed by younger and older drivers but males overtook significantly more than females. We conclude that prefrontal cortex activity is associated with the mental workload required for overtaking. We additionally suggest that the reduced activation in younger drivers may be related to a lack of prefrontal maturation which could contribute to the increased crash risk seen in this population

Morphometric Relationship, Phylogenetic Correlation, and Character Evolution in the Species-Rich Genus Aphis (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

The species-rich genus Aphis consists of more than 500 species, many of them host-specific on a wide range of plants, yet very similar in general appearance due to convergence toward particular morphological types. Most species have been historically clustered into four main phenotypic groups (gossypii, craccivora, fabae, and spiraecola groups). To confirm the morphological hypotheses between these groups and to examine the characteristics that determine them, multivariate morphometric analyses were performed using 28 characters measured/counted from 40 species. To infer whether the morphological relationships are correlated with the genetic relationships, we compared the morphometric dataset with a phylogeny reconstructed from the combined dataset of three mtDNA and one nuclear DNA regions.Based on a comparison of morphological and molecular datasets, we confirmed morphological reduction or regression in the gossypii group unlike in related groups. Most morphological characteristics of the gossypii group were less variable than for the other groups. Due to these, the gossypii group could be morphologically well separated from the craccivora, fabae, and spiraecola groups. In addition, the correlation of the rates of evolution between morphological and DNA datasets was highly significant in their diversification.The morphological separation between the gossypii group and the other species-groups are congruent with their phylogenetic relationships. Analysis of trait evolution revealed that the morphological traits found to be significant based on the morphometric analyses were confidently correlated with the phylogeny. The dominant patterns of trait evolution resulting in increased rates of short branches and temporally later evolution are likely suitable for the modality of Aphis speciation because they have adapted species-specifically, rapidly, and more recently on many different host plants

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Mortality of emergency abdominal surgery in high-, middle- and low-income countries

Background: Surgical mortality data are collected routinely in high-income countries, yet virtually no low- or middle-income countries have outcome surveillance in place. The aim was prospectively to collect worldwide mortality data following emergency abdominal surgery, comparing findings across countries with a low, middle or high Human Development Index (HDI). Methods: This was a prospective, multicentre, cohort study. Self-selected hospitals performing emergency surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive patients from at least one 2-week interval during July to December 2014. Postoperative mortality was analysed by hierarchical multivariable logistic regression. Results: Data were obtained for 10 745 patients from 357 centres in 58 countries; 6538 were from high-, 2889 from middle- and 1318 from low-HDI settings. The overall mortality rate was 1⋅6 per cent at 24 h (high 1⋅1 per cent, middle 1⋅9 per cent, low 3⋅4 per cent; P < 0⋅001), increasing to 5⋅4 per cent by 30 days (high 4⋅5 per cent, middle 6⋅0 per cent, low 8⋅6 per cent; P < 0⋅001). Of the 578 patients who died, 404 (69⋅9 per cent) did so between 24 h and 30 days following surgery (high 74⋅2 per cent, middle 68⋅8 per cent, low 60⋅5 per cent). After adjustment, 30-day mortality remained higher in middle-income (odds ratio (OR) 2⋅78, 95 per cent c.i. 1⋅84 to 4⋅20) and low-income (OR 2⋅97, 1⋅84 to 4⋅81) countries. Surgical safety checklist use was less frequent in low- and middle-income countries, but when used was associated with reduced mortality at 30 days. Conclusion: Mortality is three times higher in low- compared with high-HDI countries even when adjusted for prognostic factors. Patient safety factors may have an important role. Registration number: NCT02179112 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

Initial and long-term consequences of attempts to improve fish-food resources in Lithuanian waters by introducing alien peracaridan species: a retrospective overview

In this overview, we consider the rationale and practice of invertebrate introductions into Lithuanian waters, the current distribution of introduced species, test the theoretical expectations of introduction of peracaridan species into lakes, and summarize the large-scale consequences of these translocations. After some early attempts to transfer locally available species within the country, peracaridan species from the Ponto-Caspian region were introduced into Lithuanian waters during the 1960s (Pontogammarus robustoides, Obesogammarus crassus, Chaetogammarus warpachowskyi, Paramysis lacustris, Limnomysis benedeni and Hemimysis anomala). After their establishment at the site of first introduction in a newly constructed water reservoir on the Nemunas River, further deliberate introductions into Lithuanian lakes and water reservoirs, as well as into more distant areas, were undertaken. These introduced species soon contributed to fish diet and a subsequent increase in the production of commercially important fish was envisaged. However, our collation of available data does not support the enhancement of fish production in Lithuanian lakes. Although perch (selected as a model fish species) assimilated the introduced species into diet and sometimes in large quantities, there was no subsequent influence on somatic growth rates when compared with perch from lakes devoid of alien peracaridans. Comparisons of littoral fish communities of different lakes, and commercial catches in the lake with the most numerous populations of introduced species also indicate no significant effect on fish production. Negative consequences of introduction are more than obvious in contrast. To date, most of the introduced Ponto-Caspian amphipod and mysid species occur in different sites of the Baltic Sea basin outside Lithuania, and their further dispersal may be expected. These species, especially amphipods, have proved to be highly ecologically aggressive, inducing change in resident macroinvertebrate communities and causing increase of biological contamination (i.e. detract from naturalness). Thus, the introduction of alien fodder species was ill advised from an economic, and even adverse from an environmental perspective

Can the invasive New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) threaten fisheries of temperate lakes? A case study from Lake Dusia, Lithuania

Background. To date, numerous studies of the impact of snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray, 1843) on invaded ecosystems have been conducted. However, the majority of such studies intended to assess changes induced in macroinvertebrate assemblages, while the possible effects of P. antipodarum on higher trophic levels have not hitherto been studied. Of particular interest from the point of view of fisheries management is the elucidation of how this invasive snail can alter the energy flow towards higher trophic levels. When abundant, P. antipodarum consumes a substantial part of the primary production, but it is poorly consumed by native fishes. Consequently, part of its assimilated energy may become locked in lower trophic levels and fail to reach higher levels directly. Therefore, invasion of this snail may decrease fish production. Materials and methods. Several years after establishment of P. antipodarum in a temperate mesotrophic Lake Dusia, we assessed: (1) changes in the biomass of littoral macroinvertebrates (proxy to secondary production), (2) assimilation of P. antipodarum by benthivorous fish (energy flow), and (3) changes in growth and catches of littoral benthivorous fish (fish production). All the analyses were based on a merger of “grey” literature and original data during the pre- and post-invasion periods. Results. There was an evident increase in the biomass of littoral macroinvertebrates, and the assemblage changed from crustacean- to gastropod-dominated due to over-domination of P. antipodarum. However, P. antipodarum did not replace the native prey of fish. Moreover, a marked decrease was recorded in littoral fish growth and catches after the invasion of P. antipodarum. Conclusion. Dense populations of P. antipodarum may reduce the channelling of primary production towards higher trophic levels and, consequently, the invasion may threaten fisheries of temperate mesotrophic lakes