Foehn jets over the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Previously unknown foehn jets have been identified to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. These jets have major implications for the east coast of the AP, a region of rapid climatic warming and where two large sections of ice shelf have collapsed in recent years. During three foehn events across the AP, leeside warming and drying is seen in new aircraft observations and simulated well by the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) at ∼1.5 km grid spacing. In case A, weak southwesterly flow and an elevated upwind inversion characterise a highly nonlinear flow regime with upwind flow blocking. In case C strong northwesterly winds characterise a relatively linear case with little upwind flow blocking. Case B resides somewhere between the two in flow regime linearity. The foehn jets – apparent in aircraft observations where available and MetUM simulations of all three cases – are mesoscale features (up to 60 km in width) originating from the mouths of leeside inlets. Through back trajectory analysis they are identified as a type of gap flow. In cases A and B the jets are distinct, being strongly accelerated relative to the background flow, and confined to low levels above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. They resemble the ‘shallow foehn’ of the Alps. Case C resembles a case of ‘deep foehn’, with the jets less distinct. The foehn jets are considerably cooler and moister relative to adjacent regions of calmer foehn air. This is due to a dampened foehn effect in the jet regions: in case A the jets have lower upwind source regions, and in the more linear case C there is less diabatic warming and precipitation along jet trajectories due to the reduced orographic uplift across the mountain passes

Aircraft-based mass balance estimate of methane emissions from offshore gas facilities in the Southern North Sea

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have more than doubled since the beginning of the industrial age, making CH4 the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). The oil and gas sector represent one of the major anthropogenic CH4 emitters as it is estimated to account for 22 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions. An airborne field campaign was conducted in April&ndash;May 2019 to study CH4 emissions from offshore gas facilities in the Southern North Sea with the aim to derive emission estimates using a top-down (measurement-led) approach. We present CH4 fluxes for six UK and five Dutch offshore platforms/platform complexes using the well-established mass balance flux method. We identify specific gas production emissions and emission processes (venting/fugitive or flaring/combustion) using observations of co-emitted ethane (C2H6) and CO2. We compare our top-down estimated fluxes with a ship-based top-down study in the Dutch sector and with bottom-up estimates from a globally gridded annual inventory, UK national annual point-source inventories, and with operator-based reporting for individual Dutch facilities. In this study, we find that all inventories, except for the operator-based facility-level reporting, underestimate measured emissions, with the largest discrepancy observed with the globally gridded inventory. Individual facility reporting, as available for Dutch sites for the specific survey date, shows better agreement with our measurement-based estimates. For all sampled Dutch installations together, we find that our estimated flux of (122.7 &plusmn; 9.7) kg h-1 deviates by a factor 0.7 (0.35&ndash;12) from reported values (183.1 kg h-1). Comparisons with aircraft observations in two other offshore regions (Norwegian Sea and Gulf of Mexico) show that measured, absolute facility-level emission rates agree with the general distribution found in other offshore basins despite different production types (oil, gas) and gas production rates, which vary by two orders of magnitude. Therefore, mitigation is warranted equally across geographies.</p

Quantification and assessment of methane emissions from offshore oil and gas facilities on the Norwegian continental shelf

The oil and gas (O&G) sector is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. Quantifying these emissions remains challenging, with many studies highlighting discrepancies between measurements and inventory-based estimates. In this study, we present CH4 emission fluxes from 21 offshore O&G facilities collected in 10 O&G fields over two regions of the Norwegian continental shelf in 2019. Emissions of CH4 derived from measurements during 13 aircraft surveys were found to range from 2.6 to 1200 t yr−1 (with a mean of 211 t yr−1 across all 21 facilities). Comparing this with aggregated operator-reported facility emissions for 2019, we found excellent agreement (within 1σ uncertainty), with mean aircraft-measured fluxes only 16 % lower than those reported by operators. We also compared aircraft-derived fluxes with facility fluxes extracted from a global gridded fossil fuel CH4 emission inventory compiled for 2016. We found that the measured emissions were 42 % larger than the inventory for the area covered by this study, for the 21 facilities surveyed (in aggregate). We interpret this large discrepancy not to reflect a systematic error in the operator-reported emissions, which agree with measurements, but rather the representativity of the global inventory due to the methodology used to construct it and the fact that the inventory was compiled for 2016 (and thus not representative of emissions in 2019). This highlights the need for timely and up-to-date inventories for use in research and policy. The variable nature of CH4 emissions from individual facilities requires knowledge of facility operational status during measurements for data to be useful in prioritising targeted emission mitigation solutions. Future surveys of individual facilities would benefit from knowledge of facility operational status over time. Field-specific aggregated emissions (and uncertainty statistics), as presented here for the Norwegian Sea, can be meaningfully estimated from intensive aircraft surveys. However, field-specific estimates cannot be reliably extrapolated to other production fields without their own tailored surveys, which would need to capture a range of facility designs, oil and gas production volumes, and facility ages. For year-on-year comparison to annually updated inventories and regulatory emission reporting, analogous annual surveys would be needed for meaningful top-down validation. In summary, this study demonstrates the importance and accuracy of detailed, facility-level emission accounting and reporting by operators and the use of airborne measurement approaches to validate bottom-up accounting

Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent

Based on a new analysis of passive microwave satellite data, we demonstrate that the annual mean extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.97% dec−1 since the late 1970s. The largest increase has been in autumn when there has been a dipole of significant positive and negative trends in the Ross and Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas respectively. The autumn increase in the Ross Sea sector is primarily a result of stronger cyclonic atmospheric flow over the Amundsen Sea. Model experiments suggest that the trend towards stronger cyclonic circulation is mainly a result of stratospheric ozone depletion, which has strengthened autumn wind speeds around the continent, deepening the Amundsen Sea Low through flow separation around the high coastal orography. However, statistics derived from a climate model control run suggest that the observed sea ice increase might still be within the range of natural climate variability

The role of the non-axisymmetric Antarctic orography in forcing the observed pattern of variability of the Antarctic climate

The pattern of inter‐annual variability in the atmospheric circulation around Antarctica has a maximum over the Amundsen‐Bellinghausen Sea (ABS), which is particularly strong during the winter (June, July and August). By using an atmosphere‐only general circulation model the causes of this maximum have been investigated. In particular we study the effect of the non‐axisymmetric nature of the local surface forcing (sea surface temperatures, sea ice and orography) by imposing axi‐symmetric forcing fields at high southern latitudes. The results of these experiments show that the non‐axisymmetric nature of the Antarctic orography is sufficient to explain the variability maximum in the ABS

Uncertainty in Cloud Optical Depth Estimates Made from Satellite Radiance Measurements

The uncertainty in optical depths retrieved from satellite measurements of visible wavelength radiance at the top of the atmosphere is quantified. Techniques are briefly reviewed for the estimation of optical depth from measurements of radiance, and it is noted that these estimates are always more uncertain at greater optical depths and larger solar zenith angles. The lack of radiometric calibration for visible wavelength imagers on operational satellites dominates the uncertainty retrievals of optical depth. This is true for both single-pixel retrievals and for statistics calculated from a population of individual retrievals. For individual estimates or small samples, sensor discretization (especially for the VAS instrument) can also be significant, but the sensitivity of the retrieval to the specification of the model atmosphere is less important. The relative uncertainty in calibration affects the accuracy with which optical depth distributions measured by different sensors may be quantitatively compared, while the absolute calibration uncertainty, acting through the nonlinear mapping of radiance to optical depth, limits the degree to which distributions measured by the same sensor may be distinguished. Copyright 1995 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected], Faculty ofEarth and Ocean Sciences, Department ofReviewedFacult

An extreme wind event at Casey Station, Antarctica

Model output, satellite data, and in situ observations are used to investigate the conditions that gave rise to an extreme wind event at the Australian Casey Station (66.27°S, 110.53°E) on the coast of East Antarctica. The event took place over the period March 20–22, 1992, and resulted in Casey Station's highest ever wind gust for March (66.9 m s−1, 130 knots) and 10 m mean winds of near 50 m s−1. The event occurred when a deep low was located just north of the coast and there was high surface pressure inland. The rapid deepening of the low took place within a strong baroclinic zone lying north-south between a cold trough and a ridge bringing very warm air southward. A conceptual model is proposed for the very strong winds experienced at Casey Station. Key elements of the model are (1) a synoptic-scale high-low pressure couplet, providing a strengthening pressure gradient; (2) entrainment of radiatively cooled air by the supercritical synoptic gradient, leading to downslope flow; (3) the acceleration of the wind down the lee slope of Law Dome, occurring primarily in response to a topographically induced, long-period, vertically propagating gravity wave; and (4) sources of negative buoyancy, including prestorm radiatively cooled air and, later in the storm, maritime air cooled by heat flux to the ice surface. The topographically induced gravity wave increases the horizontal temperature difference, thus increasing the negative buoyancy of the surface airflow