The Framing and Evaluation of Multiple Hypotheses

This is the author's final draft. The publisher's official version is available electronically from: .This study provides exploratory evidence on auditors’ framing and evaluation of hypotheses, identifies implications for improving audit decision-making and facilitates the interpretation of prior research. Prior studies usually assume hypotheses to be framed as mutually exclusive and exhaustive. However, both verbal protocol evidence and probability assessments reveal that in a realistic case most auditors frame the hypotheses as a non-mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of causes. Further, auditor probability assessments tend to reflect multiple causes. Finally, exploratory analyses indicate auditors have difficulty in updating assessments consistent with the perceived interrelationships between hypotheses

The framing and evaluation of multiple hypotheses

This study provides exploratory evidence on auditors' framing and evaluation of hypotheses, identifies implications for improving audit decision-making and facilitates the interpretation of prior research. Prior studies usually assume hypotheses to be framed as mutually exclusive and exhaustive. However, both verbal protocol evidence and probability assessments reveal that in a realistic case most auditors frame the hypotheses as a non-mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of causes. Further, auditor probability assessments tend to reflect multiple causes. Finally, exploratory analyses indicate auditors have difficulty in updating assessments consistent with the perceived interrelationships between hypotheses

Amicus Brief, Lebron v. Gottlieb Memorial Hospital

Illinois Public Act 82-280, § 2-1706.5, as amended by P.A. 94-677, § 330 (eff. Aug. 25, 2005), and as codified as 735 ILCS 5/2-1706.5(a), imposes a $500,000 “cap” on the noneconomic damages that may be awarded in a medical malpractice suit against a physician or other health care professional, and a$1 million “cap” on the noneconomic damages that may be awarded against a hospital, its affiliates, or their employees. This brief will address two of the questions presented for review by the parties: 1. Does the cap violate the Illinois Constitution’s prohibition on “special legislation,” Art. IV, § 3, because it unnecessarily, arbitrarily, and irrationally grants exceptional benefits and privileges exclusively to certain classes of tort defendants. 2. Does the cap violate the Illinois Constitution’s guarantee of “equal protection,” Art. I, § 2, because it unnecessarily, arbitrarily, and irrationally imposes extraordinary burdens uniquely upon certain classes and sub-classes of tort plaintiffs

The Returns to Criminal Capital

Human capital theory (Becker 1962; Mincer 1958; Schultz 1960; 1961) posits that individuals can increase their labor market returns through investments in education and training. This concept has been studied extensively across several disciplines. An analog concept of criminal capital, while the focus of speculation and limited empirical study, remains considerably less developed theoretically and methodologically. This paper offers a formal theoretical model of criminal capital indicators and tests for greater illegal wage returns using a sample of serious adolescent offenders, many of whom participate in illegal income-generating activities. Our results reveal that, consistent with human capital theory, there are important illegal wage premiums associated with investments in criminal capital, notably an increasing but declining marginal return to experience and a premium for specialization. Further, as in studies of legal labor markets, we find strong evidence that, if left unaccounted for, non-random sample selection causes severe bias in models of illegal wages. Theoretical and practical implications of these results, along with directions for future research, are discussed

Alcator C-Mod: research in support of ITER and steps beyond

This paper presents an overview of recent highlights from research on Alcator C-Mod. Significant progress has been made across all research areas over the last two years, with particular emphasis on divertor physics and power handling, plasma–material interaction studies, edge localized mode-suppressed pedestal dynamics, core transport and turbulence, and RF heating and current drive utilizing ion cyclotron and lower hybrid tools. Specific results of particular relevance to ITER include: inner wall SOL transport studies that have led, together with results from other experiments, to the change of the detailed shape of the inner wall in ITER; runaway electron studies showing that the critical electric field required for runaway generation is much higher than predicted from collisional theory; core tungsten impurity transport studies reveal that tungsten accumulation is naturally avoided in typical C-Mod conditions.United States. Department of Energy (DE-FC02-99ER54512-CMOD)United States. Department of Energy (DE-AC02-09CH11466)United States. Department of Energy (DE-FG02-96ER-54373)United States. Department of Energy (DE-FG02-94ER54235

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Metabolomic Profiling Reveals a Role for Androgen in Activating Amino Acid Metabolism and Methylation in Prostate Cancer Cells

Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer related death in American men. Development and progression of clinically localized prostate cancer is highly dependent on androgen signaling. Metastatic tumors are initially responsive to anti-androgen therapy, however become resistant to this regimen upon progression. Genomic and proteomic studies have implicated a role for androgen in regulating metabolic processes in prostate cancer. However, there have been no metabolomic profiling studies conducted thus far that have examined androgen-regulated biochemical processes in prostate cancer. Here, we have used unbiased metabolomic profiling coupled with enrichment-based bioprocess mapping to obtain insights into the biochemical alterations mediated by androgen in prostate cancer cell lines. Our findings indicate that androgen exposure results in elevation of amino acid metabolism and alteration of methylation potential in prostate cancer cells. Further, metabolic phenotyping studies confirm higher flux through pathways associated with amino acid metabolism in prostate cancer cells treated with androgen. These findings provide insight into the potential biochemical processes regulated by androgen signaling in prostate cancer. Clinically, if validated, these pathways could be exploited to develop therapeutic strategies that supplement current androgen ablative treatments while the observed androgen-regulated metabolic signatures could be employed as biomarkers that presage the development of castrate-resistant prostate cancer

Toward Space-like Photometric Precision from the Ground with Beam-shaping Diffusers

We demonstrate a path to hitherto unachievable differential photometric precisions from the ground, both in the optical and near-infrared (NIR), using custom-fabricated beam-shaping diffusers produced using specialized nanofabrication techniques. Such diffusers mold the focal plane image of a star into a broad and stable top-hat shape, minimizing photometric errors due to non-uniform pixel response, atmospheric seeing effects, imperfect guiding, and telescope-induced variable aberrations seen in defocusing. This PSF reshaping significantly increases the achievable dynamic range of our observations, increasing our observing efficiency and thus better averages over scintillation. Diffusers work in both collimated and converging beams. We present diffuser-assisted optical observations demonstrating 62_(-16)^(+26) ppm precision in 30 minute bins on a nearby bright star 16 Cygni A (V = 5.95) using the ARC 3.5 m telescope—within a factor of ~2 of Kepler's photometric precision on the same star. We also show a transit of WASP-85-Ab (V = 11.2) and TRES-3b (V = 12.4), where the residuals bin down to 180_(-41)^(+66) ppm in 30 minute bins for WASP-85-Ab—a factor of ~4 of the precision achieved by the K2 mission on this target—and to 101 ppm for TRES-3b. In the NIR, where diffusers may provide even more significant improvements over the current state of the art, our preliminary tests demonstrated 137_(-36)^(+64) ppm precision for a K_S = 10.8 star on the 200 inch Hale Telescope. These photometric precisions match or surpass the expected photometric precisions of TESS for the same magnitude range. This technology is inexpensive, scalable, easily adaptable, and can have an important and immediate impact on the observations of transits and secondary eclipses of exoplanets