Factors Affecting Milk Market Supply and Level of Supply by Smallholder Milk Producers: The Case of Dessie Zuria District, South Wollo Zone, Ethiopia

The study was conducted in Dessie Zuria District of South Wollo Zone, Northern Ethiopia with the specific objectives of analyzing determinants of milk market supply. A two stage sampling procedure was applied to select sample milk producer households of the study area. In the first stage, 12 potential milk producer kebeles were purposively selected out of 37 administrative kebeles of the district based on their level of milk production. Then, a total of 6 sample kebeles were selected randomly. In the second stage, 100 sample smallholder milk producers were selected from those 6 randomly selected kebeles and both qualitative and quantitative types of data were collected. Secondary data were collected from journals, reports and documents used in the study area. Primary data were collected from individual smallholder milk producers, key informants and focus group discussions using both structured and semi-structured types of questionnaires. Data analysis was performed both by descriptive and econometric analysis employing STATA version 12 software. Factors determining participation of milk market supply was analyzed using Heckman two stage estimation model and the results of first stage/probit regression model showed that both decision of participation and level of participation of households in milk market supply were affected significantly by age of the household, educational level, number of milking cows owned, distance from market/urban centres and technical training. Decision of participation of households in milk market supply was also affected significantly by access to credit whereas level of participation was affected significantly by sex of the household, family size and access to market information. Thus, it is suggested that strengthening of participation of smallholder milk producers in milk market supply via capacity improvement and enhanced access of appropriate technical support service provision. Keywords: Heckman two stage model, Milk, Market suppl

Malaria elimination in Zanzibar: where next?

In 2018, Zanzibar developed a national malaria strategic plan IV (2018-2023) to guide elimination of malaria by 2023. We assessed progress in the implementation of malaria activities as part of the end-term review of the strategic plan. The review was done between August and October 2022 following the WHO guideline to assess progress made towards malaria elimination, effectiveness of the health systems in delivering malaria case management; and malaria financing. A desk review examined available malaria data, annual work plans and implementation reports for evidence of implemented malaria activities. This was complemented by field visits to selected health facilities and communities by external experts, and interviews with health management teams and inhabitants to authenticate desk review findings. A steady increase in the annual parasite incidence (API) was observed in Zanzibar, from 2.7 (2017) to 3.6 (2021) cases per 1,000 population with marked heterogeneity between areas. However, about 68% of the detected malaria cases were imported into Zanzibar. Malaria case follow-up and investigation increased from <70% in 2017 to 94% and 96% respectively, in 2021. The review noted a 3.7-fold increase of the health allocation in the country's budget, from 31.7 million USD (2017/18) to 117.3 million USD (2022/23) but malaria allocation remained low (<1%). The varying transmission levels in the islands suggest a need for strategic re-orientation of the elimination attempts from a national-wide to a sub-national agenda. We recommend increasing malaria allocation from the health budget to ensure sustainability of malaria elimination interventions

A qualitative understanding of the effects of reusable sanitary pads and puberty education: Implications for future research and practice

BACKGROUND: The management of menstruation has come to the fore as a barrier to girls’ education attainment in low income contexts. Interventions have been proposed and piloted, but the emerging nature of the field means limited evidence is available to understand their pathways of effect. // METHODS: This study describes and compares schoolgirls’ experiences of menstruation in rural Uganda at the conclusion of a controlled trial of puberty education and sanitary pad provision to elucidate pathways of effect in the interventions. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with schoolgirls who participated in the Menstruation and the Cycle of Poverty trial concurrent with the final set of quantitative surveys. A framework approach and cross-case analysis were employed to describe and compare the experiences of 27 menstruating girls across the four intervention conditions; education (n = 8), reusable sanitary pads (n = 8), education with reusable sanitary pads (n = 6), and control (n = 5). // RESULTS: Themes included: menstrual hygiene, soiling, irritation and infection, physical experience, knowledge of menstruation, psychological, social and cultural factors, and support from others. Those receiving reusable pads experienced improvements in comfort and reliability. This translated into reduced fears around garment soiling and related school absenteeism. Other menstrual hygiene challenges of washing, drying and privacy remained prominent. Puberty education improved girls’ confidence to discuss menstruation and prompted additional support from teachers and peers. // CONCLUSIONS: Findings have important implications for the development and evaluation of future interventions. Results suggest the provision of menstrual absorbents addresses one core barrier to menstrual health, but that interventions addressing broader needs such as privacy may improve effectiveness. Puberty education sessions should increase attention to body awareness and include strategies to address a wider range of practical menstrual challenges, including pain management. Interviews revealed possibilities for improving quantitative surveys in future research

Menstruation and the cycle of poverty: a cluster quasi-randomised control trial of sanitary pad and puberty education provision in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Poor menstrual knowledge and access to sanitary products have been proposed as barriers to menstrual health and school attendance. In response, interventions targeting these needs have seen increasing implementation in public and private sectors. However, there has been limited assessment of their effectiveness. // OBJECTIVES: Assess the impact of providing reusable sanitary pads and puberty education on girls’ school attendance and psychosocial wellbeing outcomes. // METHODS: A cluster quasi-randomised controlled trial was conducted across 8 schools, including 1124 girls, in rural Uganda. Schools were allocated to one of four conditions: the provision of puberty education alone; reusable sanitary pads alone; puberty education and reusable sanitary pads; and a control (no intervention). The primary outcome was school attendance. Secondary outcomes reflected psychosocial wellbeing. // RESULTS: At follow-up, school attendance had worsened for girls across all conditions. Per-protocol analysis revealed that this decline was significantly greater for those in the control condition d = 0.52 (95%CI 0.26–0.77), with those in control schools having a 17.1% (95%CI: 8.7–25.5) greater drop in attendance than those in any intervention school. There were no differences between the intervention conditions. High rates of school drop-out and transfer meant the trial suffered from substantial participant drop-out. Intention-to-treat analyses using two different imputation strategies were consistent with the main results, with mean differences of 5.2% attendance in best-case and 24.5% in worst-case imputations. Results were robust to adjustments for clustering. There was no impact of the interventions on girls’ self-reported shame or insecurity during menstruation. // CONCLUSION: Results of the trial support the hypothesised positive impact of providing sanitary pads or puberty education for girls’ school attendance in a developing country context. Findings must be interpreted with caution in light of poor participant retention, intervention fidelity, and the attendance measures used

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological p ..

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND: In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030 ..

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation