Effects of stratosphere-troposphere chemistry coupling on tropospheric ozone

A new, computationally efficient coupled stratosphere-troposphere chemistry-climate model (S/T-CCM) has been developed based on three well-documented components: a 64-level general circulation model from the UK Met Office Unified Model, the tropospheric chemistry transport model (STOCHEM), and the UMSLIMCAT stratospheric chemistry module. This newly developed S/T-CCM has been evaluated with various observations, and it shows good performance in simulating important chemical species and their interdependence in both the troposphere and stratosphere. The modeled total column ozone agrees well with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer observations. Modeled ozone profiles in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are significantly improved compared to runs with the stratospheric chemistry and tropospheric chemistry models alone, and they are in good agreement with Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding satellite ozone profiles. The observed CO tape recorder is also successfully captured by the new CCM, and ozone-CO correlations are in accordance with Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment observations. However, because of limitations in vertical resolution, intrusion of CO-rich air in the stratosphere from the mesosphere could not be simulated in the current version of S/T-CCM. Additionally, the simulated stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux, which controls upper tropospheric OH and O3 concentrations, is found to be more realistic in the new coupled model compared to STOCHEM. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union

Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry‐climate models

The internal variability and coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in CCMVal‐2 chemistry‐climate models are evaluated through analysis of the annular mode patterns of variability. Computation of the annular modes in long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The spatial and temporal structure of the models’ annular modes is then compared with that of reanalyses. As a whole, the models capture the key features of observed intraseasonal variability, including the sharp vertical gradients in structure between stratosphere and troposphere, the asymmetries in the seasonal cycle between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the coupling between the polar stratospheric vortices and tropospheric midlatitude jets. It is also found that the annular mode variability changes little in time throughout simulations of the 21st century. There are, however, both common biases and significant differences in performance in the models. In the troposphere, the annular mode in models is generally too persistent, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a bias similar to that found in CMIP3 coupled climate models. In the stratosphere, the periods of peak variance and coupling with the troposphere are delayed by about a month in both hemispheres. The relationship between increased variability of the stratosphere and increased persistence in the troposphere suggests that some tropospheric biases may be related to stratospheric biases and that a well‐simulated stratosphere can improve simulation of tropospheric intraseasonal variability

Mutual Information for the Detection of Crush

Fatal crush conditions occur in crowds with tragic frequency. Event organizers and architects are often criticised for failing to consider the causes and implications of crush, but the reality is that both the prediction and prevention of such conditions offer a significant technical challenge. Full treatment of physical force within crowd simulations is precise but often computationally expensive; the more common method of human interpretation of results is computationally “cheap” but subjective and time-consuming. This paper describes an alternative method for the analysis of crowd behaviour, which uses information theory to measure crowd disorder. We show how this technique may be easily incorporated into an existing simulation framework, and validate it against an historical event. Our results show that this method offers an effective and efficient route towards automatic detection of the onset of crush

Effect of novel technology-enabled multidimensional physical activity feedback in primary care patients at risk of chronic disease – the MIPACT study: A randomised controlled trial

© 2020 The Author(s). Background: Technological progress has enabled the provision of personalised feedback across multiple dimensions of physical activity that are important for health. Whether this multidimensional approach supports physical activity behaviour change has not yet been examined. Our objective was to examine the effectiveness of a novel digital system and app that provided multidimensional physical activity feedback combined with health trainer support in primary care patients identified as at risk of chronic disease. Methods: MIPACT was a parallel-group, randomised controlled trial that recruited patients at medium (≥10 and minimum clinically important difference, MCID). However, there was profound physical activity multidimensionality, and only a small proportion (5%) of patients had consistently low physical activity across all dimensions. Conclusion: In patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and/or type II diabetes, MIPACT did not increase mean physical activity. Using a sophisticated multidimensional digital approach revealed enormous heterogeneity in baseline physical activity in primary care patients, and practitioners may need to screen for low physical activity across dimensions rather than rely on disease-risk algorithms that are heavily influenced by age. Trial registration: This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN18008011; registration date 31 July 2013)

Measurements of Transverse Energy Flow in Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Measurements of transverse energy flow are presented for neutral current deep-inelastic scattering events produced in positron-proton collisions at HERA. The kinematic range covers squared momentum transfers Q^2 from 3.2 to 2,200 GeV^2, the Bjorken scaling variable x from 8.10^{-5} to 0.11 and the hadronic mass W from 66 to 233 GeV. The transverse energy flow is measured in the hadronic centre of mass frame and is studied as a function of Q^2, x, W and pseudorapidity. A comparison is made with QCD based models. The behaviour of the mean transverse energy in the central pseudorapidity region and an interval corresponding to the photon fragmentation region are analysed as a function of Q^2 and W.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Eur. Phys.

Multiplicity Structure of the Hadronic Final State in Diffractive Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

The multiplicity structure of the hadronic system X produced in deep-inelastic processes at HERA of the type ep -> eXY, where Y is a hadronic system with mass M_Y< 1.6 GeV and where the squared momentum transfer at the pY vertex, t, is limited to |t|<1 GeV^2, is studied as a function of the invariant mass M_X of the system X. Results are presented on multiplicity distributions and multiplicity moments, rapidity spectra and forward-backward correlations in the centre-of-mass system of X. The data are compared to results in e+e- annihilation, fixed-target lepton-nucleon collisions, hadro-produced diffractive final states and to non-diffractive hadron-hadron collisions. The comparison suggests a production mechanism of virtual photon dissociation which involves a mixture of partonic states and a significant gluon content. The data are well described by a model, based on a QCD-Regge analysis of the diffractive structure function, which assumes a large hard gluonic component of the colourless exchange at low Q^2. A model with soft colour interactions is also successful.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Eur. Phys. J., error in first submission - omitted bibliograph

Differential (2+1) Jet Event Rates and Determination of alpha_s in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Events with a (2+1) jet topology in deep-inelastic scattering at HERA are studied in the kinematic range 200 < Q^2< 10,000 GeV^2. The rate of (2+1) jet events has been determined with the modified JADE jet algorithm as a function of the jet resolution parameter and is compared with the predictions of Monte Carlo models. In addition, the event rate is corrected for both hadronization and detector effects and is compared with next-to-leading order QCD calculations. A value of the strong coupling constant of alpha_s(M_Z^2)= 0.118+- 0.002 (stat.)^(+0.007)_(-0.008) (syst.)^(+0.007)_(-0.006) (theory) is extracted. The systematic error includes uncertainties in the calorimeter energy calibration, in the description of the data by current Monte Carlo models, and in the knowledge of the parton densities. The theoretical error is dominated by the renormalization scale ambiguity.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, submitted to Eur. Phys.

Searches at HERA for Squarks in R-Parity Violating Supersymmetry

A search for squarks in R-parity violating supersymmetry is performed in e^+p collisions at HERA at a centre of mass energy of 300 GeV, using H1 data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 37 pb^(-1). The direct production of single squarks of any generation in positron-quark fusion via a Yukawa coupling lambda' is considered, taking into account R-parity violating and conserving decays of the squarks. No significant deviation from the Standard Model expectation is found. The results are interpreted in terms of constraints within the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), the constrained MSSM and the minimal Supergravity model, and their sensitivity to the model parameters is studied in detail. For a Yukawa coupling of electromagnetic strength, squark masses below 260 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in a large part of the parameter space. For a 100 times smaller coupling strength masses up to 182 GeV are excluded.Comment: 32 pages, 14 figures, 3 table

Multi-Jet Event Rates in Deep Inelastic Scattering and Determination of the Strong Coupling Constant

Jet event rates in deep inelastic ep scattering at HERA are investigated applying the modified JADE jet algorithm. The analysis uses data taken with the H1 detector in 1994 and 1995. The data are corrected for detector and hadronization effects and then compared with perturbative QCD predictions using next-to-leading order calculations. The strong coupling constant alpha_S(M_Z^2) is determined evaluating the jet event rates. Values of alpha_S(Q^2) are extracted in four different bins of the negative squared momentum transfer~\qq in the range from 40 GeV2 to 4000 GeV2. A combined fit of the renormalization group equation to these several alpha_S(Q^2) values results in alpha_S(M_Z^2) = 0.117+-0.003(stat)+0.009-0.013(syst)+0.006(jet algorithm).Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, this version to appear in Eur. Phys. J.; it replaces first posted hep-ex/9807019 which had incorrect figure 4