A note on the predictability of the Russian stock market

Over the past 20 years, the problem of low investment activity of private investors has been featuring the Russian stock market. There are various reasons for that, among them the financial crises, limited access to information, a high subjectivity and lack of developed and simple methods for making investment decisions. Therefore, this research aims to study the predictability of the Russian stock market in the conditions of instability due to crises, as well as the limited access of private investors to information and the low investment literacy in general. This research addresses the predictability of the equity premium on the Russian stock market from 31 January 2008 to 31 January 2017. This is the period of two economic crises for the Russian economy: from 2008 to 2013 and from 2014 to 2017. The authors investigate whether the returns of industry portfolios can predict future stock market returns. The particular set of traditional macroeconomic variables functioning as predictors of stock returns and the economy, in general, is determined. Thus, the selection of approaches, methods, and indicators for the analysis and forecasting of the Russian stock market was carried out according to three criteria: the instability (crises) periods, the information available for the private investor (generally accepted indicators), and the clarity and ordinariness of analysis and forecasting methods. A macroeconomic indicator-based approach or an industry-based approach is more often used for these purposes. Taking into account the instability caused by the economic crises in Russia, the authors combined two approaches. Using traditional linear regression modeling, three out of nine industries and five out of eight macroeconomic predictors have been found statistically significant. However, all the models based on these predictors have negative pseudo-R-squared values; therefore, they underperform the historical out-of-sample mean model. It has also been revealed that two out of nine forecast models, based on significant predictors, provide utility gains for the mean-variance investor

Synthesis and properties of 2′-deoxy-2′,4′-difluoroarabinose-modified nucleic acids

© 2015 American Chemical Society. We report the synthesis, thermal stability, and RNase H substrate activity of 2′-deoxy-2′,4′-difluoroarabino-modified nucleic acids. 2′-Deoxy-2′,4′-difluoroarabinouridine (2,′4′-diF-araU) was prepared in a stereoselective way in six steps from 2′-deoxy-2′-fluoroarabinouridine (2′-F-araU). NMR analysis and quantum mechanical calculations at the nucleoside level reveal that introduction of 4′-fluorine introduces a strong bias toward the North conformation, despite the presence of the 2′-βF, which generally steers the sugar pucker toward the South/East conformation. Incorporation of the novel monomer into DNA results on a neutral to slightly stabilizing thermal effect on DNA-RNA hybrids. Insertion of 2′,4′-diF-araU nucleotides in the DNA strand of a DNA-RNA hybrid decreases the rate of both human and HIV reverse transcriptase-associated RNase H-mediated cleavage of the complement RNA strand compared to that for an all-DNA strand or a DNA strand containing the corresponding 2′-F-araU nucleotide units, consistent with the notion that a 4′-fluorine in 2′-F-araU switches the preferred sugar conformation from DNA-like (South/East) to RNA-like (North).Peer Reviewe

Similarity analysis of silage, rumen and milk microbiota in dairy cows

Diseases that occur in such a multifactorial system as animal husbandry are determined not only by internal factors of the body, for example, the composition of the microflora of the digestive system, but also by external factors, such as feed. The aim of the study was to analyze the similarity of the microbiota of silage fed to cows with the composition of the microflora of their rumen and milk using the NGS sequencing method. The experiment was carried out on one of the commercial farms of the Leningrad region. The bacterial community of the contents of rumen, milk and silage from perennial cereals and legumes was evaluated by NGS sequencing on the MiSeq platform (Illumina, Inc., USA) with primers for the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. As a result of the study, 22 phylum of attributed microorganisms were found in the microflora of silage, 24 to 30 phylum of rumen, 18 phylum of milk. Similar taxa of microorganisms were identified in silage, rumen and milk, the main difference was noted in quantitative ratios (P≤0.05). For example, the amount of Firmicutes in silage was 52.9 ± 3.45%, in milk - 11.8 ± 0.78%. This suggests that there may be some relationship between the studied biotopes. Pathogenic microorganisms, including the causative agents of mastitis, were present in many samples. The genera Staphylococcus, Acinetobacter, Streptococcus and Fusobacterium were identified by us as the most represented (P≤0.05) in the composition of the milk microflora. Their content was 0.24±0.023, 1.8±1.23, 1.0±0.06 and 0.35±0.031%, respectively. Probably, the microflora of the rumen can influence the formation of the milk microbiota

Friedreich's ataxia-associated childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is an important predictor of long-term outcomes in Friedreich's ataxia (FA), but the clinical spectrum and survival in childhood is poorly described. This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of children with FA-HCM. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective, longitudinal cohort study of children with FA-HCM from the UK. PATIENTS: 78 children (<18 years) with FA-HCM diagnosed over four decades. INTERVENTION: Anonymised retrospective demographic and clinical data were collected from baseline evaluation and follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary study end-point was all-cause mortality (sudden cardiac death, atrial arrhythmia-related death, heart failure-related death, non-cardiac death) or cardiac transplantation. RESULTS: The mean age at diagnosis of FA-HCM was 10.9 (±3.1) years. Diagnosis was within 1 year of cardiac referral in 34 (65.0%) patients, but preceded the diagnosis of FA in 4 (5.3%). At baseline, 65 (90.3%) had concentric left ventricular hypertrophy and 6 (12.5%) had systolic impairment. Over a median follow-up of 5.1 years (IQR 2.4-7.3), 8 (10.5%) had documented supraventricular arrhythmias and 8 (10.5%) died (atrial arrhythmia-related n=2; heart failure-related n=1; non-cardiac n=2; or unknown cause n=3), but there were no sudden cardiac deaths. Freedom from death or transplantation at 10 years was 80.8% (95% CI 62.5 to 90.8). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest cohort of childhood FA-HCM reported to date and describes a high prevalence of atrial arrhythmias and impaired systolic function in childhood, suggesting early progression to end-stage disease. Overall mortality is similar to that reported in non-syndromic childhood HCM, but no patients died suddenly

USAGE EFFICIENCY OF THE AIR AND THE DISPERSE ENVIRONMENT AS HEAT-CARRIERS

The estimation of the air and the disperse environment (fluidized bed) in the heat exchange intensity with identical energy expenses on a heat-carriers transportation is carried out in the work.В работе проведена оценка эффективности воздуха и дисперсной среды (псевдоожиженного слоя) по интенсивности теплообмена при одинаковых затратах энергии на перемещение теплоносителей

Comparison of methods of organization of air-exchange production premises

The article discusses the use of vortex air distribution to improve the energy efficiency of ventilation in industrial buildings of industrial enterprises. For the analysis, an object with a source of harmful heat and gas emissions was selected. Sources of harmful emissions are distributed over the premises. A comparative analysis of the methods of the organization of ventilation at the investigated facility is carried out.В статье обсуждается применение вихревой воздухораздачи для повышения энергоэффективности вентиляции производственных зданий промышленных предприятий. Для анализа выбран объект с источником вредных теплогазовыделений. Источники вредных выделений распределены по помещению. Проведен сравнительный анализ способов организации вентиляции на исследуемом объекте

Sudden cardiac death in childhood RASopathy-associated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Validation of the HCM risk-kids model and predictors of events

Background: RASopathies account for nearly 20% of cases of childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurs in patients with RASopathy-associated HCM, but the risk factors for SCD have not been systematically evaluated. Aim: To validate the HCM Risk-Kids SCD risk prediction model in children with RASopathy-associated HCM and investigate potential specific SCD predictors in this population. Methods: Validation of HCM Risk-Kids was performed in a retrospective cohort of 169 patients with a RASopathy-associated HCM from 15 international paediatric cardiology centres. Multiple imputation by chained equations was used for missing values related to the HCM Risk-Kids parameters. Results: Eleven patients (6.5%) experienced a SCD or equivalent event at a median age of 12.5 months (IQR 7.7–28.64). The calculated SCD/equivalent event incidence was 0.78 (95% CI 0.43–1.41) per 100 patient years. Six patients (54.54%) with an event were in the low-risk category according to the HCM Risk-Kids model. Harrell's C index was 0.60, with a sensitivity of 9.09%, specificity of 63.92%, positive predictive value of 1.72%, and negative predictive value of 91%; with a poor distinction between the different risk groups. Unexplained syncope (HR 42.17, 95% CI 10.49–169.56, p < 0.001) and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (HR 5.48, 95% CI 1.58–19.03, p < 0.007) were predictors of SCD on univariate analysis. Conclusion: Unexplained syncope and the presence of NSVT emerge as predictors for SCD in children with RASopathy-associated HCM. The HCM Risk-Kids model may not be appropriate to use in this population, but larger multicentre collaborative studies are required to investigate this further

SELECTION OF A SOFTWARE SYSTEM FOR THE PURPOSE OF MODELING VORTEX AIR PROCESS IN CONSTRUCTION

The article discusses the results of vortex motion modeling in ANSYS and SolidWorks. Comparative conclusions on the results were made and the optimal software environment was selected for the purpose of simulating vortex air distribution in industrial buildings.В статье рассматриваются результаты моделирования вихревого движения в ANSYS и SolidWorks. Сделаны сравнительные выводы по результатам и выбрана оптимальная программная среда для целей моделирования вихревой воздухораздачи в производственных зданиях

USE OF PIPES WITH KNURL WHEEL IN INSTALLATIONS OF FLASH EVAPORATOR

The paper considers the possibility of using developed surfaces in the form pipes with knurl in installations of flash evaporator. The effect of knurling on the heat exchange processes inherent in this installation is considered.В работе рассмотрена возможность использования развитых поверхностей в виде накатаных труб в установках мгновенного вскипания. Рассмотрено влияние накатки на процессы теплообмена, присущие этой установке

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns