Disentangling evolutionary, plastic and demographic processes underlying trait dynamics: a review of four frameworks

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Biologists are increasingly interested in decomposing trait dynamics into underlying processes, such as evolution, plasticity and demography. Four important frameworks that allow for such a decomposition are the quantitative genetic animal model (AM), the ‘Geber’ method (GM), the age-structured Price equation (APE) and the integral projection model (IPM). However, as these frameworks have largely been developed independently, they differ in the assumptions they make, the data they require, as well as their outcomes and interpretation. Here, we evaluate how each framework decomposes trait dynamics into underlying processes. To do so, we apply them to simulated data for a hypothetical animal population. Individual body size was affected by, among others, genes, maternal effects and food intake. We simulated scenarios with and without selection on body size and with high and low heritability. The APE and IPM provided similar results, as did the AM and GM, with important differences between the former and the latter. All frameworks detected positive contributions of selection in the high but not in the low selection scenarios. However, only the AM and GM distinguished between the high and low heritability scenarios. Furthermore, the AM and GM revealed a high contribution of plasticity. The APE and IPM attributed most of the change in body size to ontogenetic growth and inheritance, where the latter captures the combined effects of plasticity, maternal effects and heritability. We show how these apparent discrepancies are mostly due to differences in aims and definitions. For example, the APE and IPM capture selection, whereas the AM and GM focus on the response to selection. Furthermore, the frameworks differ in the processes that are ascribed to plasticity and in how they take into account demography. We conclude that no single framework provides the ‘true’ contributions of evolution, plasticity and demography. Instead, different research questions require different frameworks. A thorough understanding of the different definitions of their components is necessary for selecting the most appropriate framework for the question at hand and for making biologically meaningful inferences. This work thus supports both future analysis and the careful interpretation of existing work.This work was funded by the Swiss NationalScience Foundation project grants (31003A_141110 and 31003A_159462/1 toEP, 31003A_146445 to AO) and an ERC starting grant (#337785 to AO)

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS. Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS. Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.European Research Council Advanced Grant; H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions; Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria; MAVA Foundation; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; National Geographic Society; U.S. National Science Foundation; Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory research fellowship; Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung and UCLA (Faculty Senate and Division of Life Sciences).https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/r/ecyhj2023Mammal Research Institut

Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

Approximately 25 % of mammals are threatened globally with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change1. Persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, on population dynamics2. Thus, to quantify which species and places on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how demographic rates respond to climate is needed3. We synthesise information on such responses in terrestrial mammals, where extensive demographic data are available4. Given the importance of assessing the full spectrum of responses, we focus on studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We identify 106 such studies, corresponding to 86 mammal species. We reveal a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognised as most vulnerable to climate change5,6. Moreover, we show that the effects of climate change on mammals will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others. Assessments of population viability under climate change therefore need to account for multiple demographic responses. We advocate to prioritise coordinated actions to assess mammal demography holistically for effective conservation worldwide

Identification of the Photoreceptor Transcriptional Co-Repressor SAMD11 as Novel Cause of Autosomal Recessive Retinitis Pigmentosa

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP), the most frequent form of inherited retinal dystrophy is characterized by progressive photoreceptor degeneration. Many genes have been implicated in RP development, but several others remain to be identified. Using a combination of homozygosity mapping, whole-exome and targeted next-generation sequencing, we found a novel homozygous nonsense mutation in SAMD11 in five individuals diagnosed with adult-onset RP from two unrelated consanguineous Spanish families. SAMD11 is ortholog to the mouse major retinal SAM domain (mr-s) protein that is implicated in CRX-mediated transcriptional regulation in the retina. Accordingly, protein-protein network analysis revealed a significant interaction of SAMD11 with CRX. Immunoblotting analysis confirmed strong expression of SAMD11 in human retina. Immunolocalization studies revealed SAMD11 was detected in the three nuclear layers of the human retina and interestingly differential expression between cone and rod photoreceptors was observed. Our study strongly implicates SAMD11 as novel cause of RP playing an important role in the pathogenesis of human degeneration of photoreceptors.This work was supported by several grants from the Spanish Centre for Biomedical Network Research on Rare Diseases (CIBERER)(06/07/0036), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII, Spanish Ministry of Health)/FEDER, including FIS (PI013/00226) and RETICS (RD09/0076/00101 and RD12/0034/0010), Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO), including FEDER (BFU2012-36845), and BIO2011-27069, Conselleria de Educació of the Valencia Community (PROMETEOII/2014/025), Spanish National Organization of the Blind (ONCE) and the Spanish Fighting Blindness Foundation (FUNDALUCE). M.C. was sponsored by the Miguel Servet Program for Researchers in the Spanish National Health Service (CP12/03256) and RSA by Sara Borrel Postdoctoral Program (CD12/00676), both from the ISCIII/FEDER. A.A-F. was sponsored by CIBERER, RPC is supported by Fundación Conchita Rábago (FCR), L.C is sponsored by RETICS (RD12/0034/0010) from ISCIII and L.d.S. was supported by CAPES Foundation, Ministry of Education of Brazil

Age and sex influence marmot antipredator behavior during periods of heightened risk

Animals adjust their antipredator behavior according to environmental variation in risk, and to account for their ability to respond to threats. Intrinsic factors that influence an animal’s ability to respond to predators (e.g., age, body condition) should explain variation in antipredator behavior. For example, a juvenile might allocate more time to vigilance than an adult because mortality as a result of predation is often high for this age class; however, the relationship between age/vulnerability and antipredator behavior is not always clear or as predicted. We explored the influence of intrinsic factors on yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) antipredator behavior using data pooled from 4 years of experiments. We hypothesized that inherently vulnerable animals (e.g., young, males, and individuals in poor condition) would exhibit more antipredator behavior prior to and immediately following conspecific alarm calls. As expected, males and yearlings suppressed foraging more than females and adults following alarm call playbacks. In contrast to predictions, animals in better condition respond more than animals in below average condition. Interestingly, these intrinsic properties did not influence baseline time budgets; animals of all ages, sexes, and condition levels devoted comparable amounts of time to foraging prior to alarm calls. Our results support the hypothesis that inherent differences in vulnerability influence antipredator behavior; furthermore, it appears that a crucial, but poorly acknowledged, interaction exists between risk and state-dependence. Elevated risk may be required to reveal the workings of state-dependent behavior, and studies of antipredator behavior in a single context may draw incomplete conclusions about age- or sex-specific strategies

Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach

The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere–ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change

Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change

Predictors of ASDAS-CRP inactive disease in axial spondyloarthritis during treatment with TNF-inhibitors : Data from the EuroSpA collaboration

Correction: Volume 58, Article Number 152141 DOI: 10.1016/j.semarthrit.2022.152141 Published: FEB 2023Objectives: In patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) initiating their first tumor necrosis factor alpha-inhibitor (TNFi), we aimed to identify common baseline predictors of Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS-CRP) inactive disease (primary objective) and clinically important improvement (CII) at 6 months, and drug retention at 12-months across 15 European registries. Methods: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were collected. Outcomes were investigated per registry and in pooled data using logistic regression analyses on multiply imputed data. Results: The consistency of baseline predictors in individual registries justified pooling the data. In the pooled dataset (n = 21,196), the 6-month rates for ASDAS inactive disease and ASDAS CII were 26% and 51%, and the 12-month drug retention rate 65% in patients with available data (n = 9,845, n = 6,948 and n = 21,196, respectively). Nine common baseline predictors of ASDAS inactive disease, ASDAS CII and 12-month drug retention were identified, and the odds ratios (95%-confidence interval) for ASDAS inactive disease were: age, per year: 0.97 (0.97-0.98), men vs. women: 1.88 (1.60-2.22), current vs. non-smoking: 0.76 (0.63-0.91), HLA-B27 positive vs. negative: 1.51 (1.20-1.91), TNF start year 2015-2018 vs. 2009-2014: 1.24 (1.06-1.45), CRP > 10 vs.Peer reviewe

Distribution of Spoligotyping Defined Genotypic Lineages among Drug-Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clinical Isolates in Ankara, Turkey

Background: Investigation of genetic heterogeneity and spoligotype-defined lineages of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates collected during a three-year period in two university hospitals and National Tuberculosis Reference and Research Laboratory in Ankara, Turkey. Methods and Findings: A total of 95 drug-resistant M. tuberculosis isolates collected from three different centers were included in this study. Susceptibility testing of the isolates to four major antituberculous drugs was performed using proportion method on Löwenstein–Jensen medium and BACTEC 460-TB system. All clinical isolates were typed by using spoligotyping and IS6110-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) methods. Seventy-three of the 95 (76.8%) drug resistant M. tuberculosis isolates were isoniazid-resistant, 45 (47.4%) were rifampicin-resistant, 32 (33.7%) were streptomycinresistant and 31 (32.6%) were ethambutol-resistant. The proportion of multidrug-resistant isolates (MDR) was 42.1%. By using spoligotyping, 35 distinct patterns were observed; 75 clinical isolates were grouped in 15 clusters (clustering rate of 79%) and 20 isolates displayed unique patterns. Five of these 20 unique patterns corresponded to orphan patterns in th

Protective effect of leptin against ischemia-reperfusion injury in the rat small intestine

BACKGROUND: The small intestine is extremely sensitive to ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury and a range of microcirculatory disturbances which contribute to tissue damage. Previous studies have shown that leptin plays an important physiological role in the microvasculature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the protective effects of leptin in I/R – induced mucosal injury in the small intestine. METHODS: Forty rats were divided into 5 groups (n = 8). Group I was subjected to a sham operation. Following mesenteric ischemia in group II (control); physiologic saline 1 cm(3), in group III; leptin 100 μg/kg, and physiologic saline 1 cm(3), in group IV; N(G)-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) 20 mg/kg, and physiologic saline 1 cm(3), in group V; leptin 100 μg/kg, L-NAME 20 mg/kg, and physiologic saline 1 cm(3 )were given intra-peritoneally. In these groups, an I/R procedure was performed by occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery for 45 min followed by 120 min reperfusion. After reperfusion, the small intestines were resected for malondialdehyde (MDA) and nitric oxide (NO) concentration and histopathologic properties. Mucosal lesions were scored between 0 and 5. Tissue MDA and NO concentration and histopathologic grades were compared statistically. RESULTS: Tissue MDA level significantly increased (P < 0.05), tissue NO level significantly decreased in group V animals, compared to group III animals respectively (P < 0.001). Histopathologically, intestinal injury significantly decreased in the leptin treated ischemic group. CONCLUSION: Leptin can be used safely in mesenteric occlusive diseases, since it induces NO formation and release in mesenteric vessels