Techno-Economic and Environmental Impact Analysis of Large-Scale Wind Farms Integration in Weak Transmission Grid from Mid-Career Repowering Perspective

Repowering a wind farm enhances its ability to generate electricity, allowing it to better utilize areas with high mean wind speeds. Pakistan’s present energy dilemma is a serious impediment to its economic development. The usage of a diesel generator as a dependable backup power source raises the cost of energy per kWh and increases environmental emissions. To minimize environmental emissions, grid-connected wind farms enhance the percentage of wind energy in the electricity system. These wind generators’ effects, on the other hand, are augmented by the absorption of greater quantities of reactive electricity from the grid. According to respective grid codes, integration of commercial onshore Large-Scale Wind Farms (LSWF) into a national grid is fraught with technical problems and inter-farm wake effects, which primarily ensure power quality while degrading overall system operation and limiting the optimal use of attainable wind resources. The goal of this study is to examine and estimate the techno-economic influence of large-scale wind farms linked to poor transmission systems in Pakistan, contemplating the inter-farm wake effect and reactive power diminution and compensating using a range of voltage-ampere reactive (VAR) devices. This study presents a partial repowering technique to address active power deficits produced by the wake effect by raising hub height by 20 m, which contributed to recovering the active power deficit to 48% and so reduced the effects of upstream wind farms. Simulations were conducted for several scenarios on an actual test system modeled in MATLAB for comparative study using capacitor banks and different flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) devices. Using the SAM (System Advisor Model) and RETscreen, a complete technical, economic, and environmental study was done based on energy fed into the grid, payback time, net present value (NPV), and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission reduction. The studies suggest that the unified power flow controller (UPFC) is the optimum compensating device via comparison analysis as it improved the power handling capabilities of the power system. Our best-case scenario includes UPFC with hub height augmentation, demonstrating that it is technically, fiscally, and environmentally viable. Over the course of its lifespan, the planned system has the potential to save 1,011,957 tCO2, resulting in a greener environment. When the energy generated annually by a current wake-affected system is compared to our best-recommended scenario, a recovered shortfall of 4.851% is seen, with improved system stability. This modest investment in repowering boosts energy production due to wake effects, resulting in increased NPV, revenue, and fewer CO2 footprints

Prescription of medicines by medical students of Karachi, Pakistan: A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prescription of medicines by non-doctors is an issue with serious global implications. To our knowledge prescription of drugs by medical and non-medical students has not been studied before. We aimed to determine the practice and attitudes of drug prescription by medical students and: a) how non-medical students respond to this practice, b) How this compares with the attitudes and practices of non-medical students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 600 students randomly selected from 2 medical and 2 non-medical universities. Ethical requirements were ensured and data was collected using self administered questionnaires. The Chi square tests and logistic univariate regression analyses were performed using SPSS v 14 to identify associations and differences.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 572 forms were completed and the sample consisted of 295 medical students and 277 non-medical students with no significant difference in their demographic profile. Of the 295 medical students 163 (55.3%) had prescribed a medicine independently and most (48.5%) said that they did this 2–3 times a year. The commonest reasons for this were 'previous experience' (68.7%), 'problem too trivial' (34.4%) and 'we knew everything about the condition' (31.3%). One-third (33.6%) of the undergraduate medical students thought that it was alright to independently diagnose an illness while a vast majority (78.3%) thought that it was alright for them to prescribe medicines to others. Common prescriptions were pain-killers, antipyretics, antiallergics and antibiotics. Medical students who prescribed medicines were of lesser age (CI = 1.366–1.887) and more likely to belong to the 1^st(CI = 3.588–21.731), 2^nd(CI = 2.059– 10.869) or 3^rd(CI = 4.331–26.374) year of medical college. One-third (33.9%) of the non-medical students reported that a medical student had prescribed medicines to them and 21.3% said that they trusted medical students and would follow their advice blindly. Many students thought it alright for medical students to diagnose and treat illnesses. A similar proportion of non-medical students (58.5%) reported prescribing medicines to others.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Prescription of medicines by non-doctors is rampant and urgent corrective measures are warranted. We have highlighted areas for future research and intervention and have given a few recommendations.</p

Impact of age on outcome after colorectal cancer surgery in the elderly - a developing country perspective

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major source of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population and surgery is often the only definitive management option. The suitability of surgical candidates based on age alone has traditionally been a source of controversy. Surgical resection may be considered detrimental in the elderly solely on the basis of advanced age. Based on recent evidence suggesting that age alone is not a predictor of outcomes, Western societies are increasingly performing definitive procedures on the elderly. Such evidence is not available from our region. We aimed to determine whether age has an independent effect on complications after surgery for colorectal cancer in our population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective review of all patients who underwent surgery for pathologically confirmed colorectal cancer at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi between January 1999 and December 2008 was conducted. Using a cut-off of 70 years, patients were divided into two groups. Patient demographics, tumor characteristics and postoperative complications and 30-day mortality were compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with clinically relevant variables to determine whether age had an independent and significant association with the outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 271 files were reviewed, of which 56 belonged to elderly patients (≥ 70 years). The gender ratio was equal in both groups. Elderly patients had a significantly higher comorbidity status, Charlson score and American society of anesthesiologists (ASA) class (all p < 0.001). Upon multivariate analysis, factors associated with more complications were ASA status (95% CI = 1.30-6.25), preoperative perforation (95% CI = 1.94-48.0) and rectal tumors (95% CI = 1.21-5.34). Old age was significantly associated with systemic complications upon univariate analysis (p = 0.05), however, this association vanished upon multivariate analysis (p = 0.36).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Older patients have more co-morbid conditions and higher ASA scores, but increasing age itself is not independently associated with complications after surgery for CRC. Therefore patient selection should focus on the clinical status and ASA class of the patient rather than age.</p

HIV-1 subtype A infection in a community of intravenous drug users in Pakistan

BACKGROUND: Data on the subtypes of HIV in a population help in predicting the potential foci of epidemic, tracking the routes of infection and following the patterns of the virus' genetic divergence. Globally, the most prevalent HIV infection is the HIV-1 subtype C. In Asia, predominant subtypes of HIV-1 are B, C, and CRF-01AE. During the last few years, HIV prevalence in Pakistan has taken the form of a concentrated epidemic in at least two high risk groups, namely, Intravenous Drug Users (IDUs) and Male Sex Workers (MSWs). Factors that have facilitated the proliferation of HIV infection include transmission through a large number of repatriates and needle-sharing intravenous drug users, unscreened blood transfusions, and sexual illiteracy. The HIV subtypes infecting Pakistani populations have not been explored to date. In this study, we analyzed HIV-1 subtypes from in a high-risk community of IDUs in Karachi, the largest city of Pakistan. METHODS: Samples were collected from 34 IDUs after their informed consent. In addition, the study subjects were administered a questionnaire regarding their sexual behavior and travel history. For HIV analysis, DNA was extracted from the samples and analyzed for HIV types and subtypes using subtype-specific primers in a nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The results from this PCR were further confirmed using the Heteroduplex Mobility Assay (HMA). RESULTS: We found HIV-1 subtype A in all the 34 samples analyzed. A few of the study subjects were found to have a history of travel and stay in the United Arab Emirates. The same subjects also admitted to having contact with commercial sex workers during their stay abroad. CONCLUSION: Our study therefore shows clade A HIV-1 to be prevalent among the IDUs in Karachi. As the prevalence of HIV in Pakistan continues to rise, more work needs to be done to track the infection, and to analyze the strains of HIV spreading through the country

Impact of routine PCV7 (Prevenar) vaccination of infants on the clinical and economic burden of pneumococcal disease in Malaysia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pneumococcal disease is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable death in children younger than 5 years of age worldwide. The World Health Organization recommends pneumococcal conjugate vaccine as a priority for inclusion into national childhood immunization programmes. Pneumococcal vaccine has yet to be included as part of the national vaccination programme in Malaysia although it has been available in the country since 2005. This study sought to estimate the disease burden of pneumococcal disease in Malaysia and to assess the cost effectiveness of routine infant vaccination with PCV7.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A decision model was adapted taking into consideration prevalence, disease burden, treatment costs and outcomes for pneumococcal disease severe enough to result in a hospital admission. Disease burden were estimated from the medical records of 6 hospitals. Where local data was unavailable, model inputs were obtained from international and regional studies and from focus group discussions. The model incorporated the effects of herd protection on the unvaccinated adult population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At current vaccine prices, PCV7 vaccination of 90% of a hypothetical 550,000 birth cohort would incur costs of RM 439.6 million (US$128 million). Over a 10 year time horizon, vaccination would reduce episodes of pneumococcal hospitalisation by 9,585 cases to 73,845 hospitalisations with cost savings of RM 37.5 million (US$10.9 million) to the health system with 11,422.5 life years saved at a cost effectiveness ratio of RM 35,196 (US$10,261) per life year gained.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PCV7 vaccination of infants is expected to be cost-effective for Malaysia with an incremental cost per life year gained of RM 35,196 (US$10,261). This is well below the WHO's threshold for cost effectiveness of public health interventions in Malaysia of RM 71,761 (US$20,922).</p

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative sars-cov-2 infection: An international cohort study

Background The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (740%) had emergency surgery and 280 (248%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (261%) patients. 30-day mortality was 238% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (512%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 380% (219 of 577), accounting for 817% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 175 [95% CI 128-240], p&lt;00001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (230 [165-322], p&lt;00001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3-5 versus grades 1-2 (235 [157-353], p&lt;00001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (155 [101-239], p=0046), emergency versus elective surgery (167 [106-263], p=0026), and major versus minor surgery (152 [101-231], p=0047). Interpretation Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks