Increasing the resilience of the Australian alpine flora to climate change

 The alpine region around Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko, is part of one of the three most at risk ecosystems in Australia from climate change. With higher temperatures and decreased precipitation, snow cover is already declining with even greater reductions predicted in the short to medium term (2020 to 2050). Consequently the distribution of many native plants and animals may contract, while the distribution of weeds and feral animals may expand. Wildfires in the region are also likely to be more frequent and intense. To contribute to our understanding of how changes in the environment alter plant composition and ecological process, we conducted a series of functional trait analyses of existing composition datasets. We collected trait data in the field for 220 species including canopy height, leaf area, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area (SLA). Variation in traits among the alpine flora was not related to species distributional ranges. Traits were strongly associated with growth forms, with shrubs often taller than herbs and graminoids, but often had small, tough, long-lasting leaves. Species traits were combined with relative cover values to calculate community trait weighted means, a commonly used measure of functional diversity. Functional diversity varied with altitude/duration of snow cover. For example, shrubs which are taller with small tough leaves dominated lower altitude summits, while at higher altitude summits, large, soft leaved herbs and graminoids dominated. Late lying snowpatches areas with short growing seasons were dominated by low growing herbs and graminoids with small leaves while areas with longer growing seasons were dominated by herbs and graminoids that were taller and had larger leaves. Recovery from fire differed among plant communities. The composition and functional diversity of recovering tall alpine herbfield is trending towards that of equivalent unburnt sites, while burnt windswept feldmark was colonised by graminoids and herbs that are often found in tall alpine herbfield species, with limited shrub recovery in the first nine years post fire. Grazing by feral hares had no effect on composition or functional diversity, while vegetation recovering from cattle grazing showed clear changes in composition and functional diversity even 43 years later. Prioritising management for this high value conservation region, therefore, involves enhancing resilience by minimising existing threats, particularly those from fire, weeds and hard-hooved grazing animals which will be exacerbate by climate change.Please cite as: Pickering, C, & Venn, S, 2013 Increasing the resilience of the Australian flora to climate change and associated threats: a plant functional traits approach National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 94 Abstract The alpine region around Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko, is part of one of the three most at risk ecosystems in Australia from climate change. With higher temperatures and decreased precipitation, snow cover is already declining with even greater reductions predicted in the short to medium term (2020 to 2050). Consequently the distribution of many native plants and animals may contract, while the distribution of weeds and feral animals may expand. Wildfires in the region are also likely to be more frequent and intense. To contribute to our understanding of how changes in the environment alter plant composition and ecological process, we conducted a series of functional trait analyses of existing composition datasets. We collected trait data in the field for 220 species including canopy height, leaf area, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area (SLA). Variation in traits among the alpine flora was not related to species distributional ranges. Traits were strongly associated with growth forms, with shrubs often taller than herbs and graminoids, but often had small, tough, long-lasting leaves. Species traits were combined with relative cover values to calculate community trait weighted means, a commonly used measure of functional diversity. Functional diversity varied with altitude/duration of snow cover. For example, shrubs which are taller with small tough leaves dominated lower altitude summits, while at higher altitude summits, large, soft leaved herbs and graminoids dominated. Late lying snowpatches areas with short growing seasons were dominated by low growing herbs and graminoids with small leaves while areas with longer growing seasons were dominated by herbs and graminoids that were taller and had larger leaves. Recovery from fire differed among plant communities. The composition and functional diversity of recovering tall alpine herbfield is trending towards that of equivalent unburnt sites, while burnt windswept feldmark was colonised by graminoids and herbs that are often found in tall alpine herbfield species, with limited shrub recovery in the first nine years post fire. Grazing by feral hares had no effect on composition or functional diversity, while vegetation recovering from cattle grazing showed clear changes in composition and functional diversity even 43 years later. Prioritising management for this high value conservation region, therefore, involves enhancing resilience by minimising existing threats, particularly those from fire, weeds and hard-hooved grazing animals which will be exacerbate by climate change

Timing of snowmelt affects species composition via plant strategy filtering

Plant strategy schemes aim to classify plants according to measurable traits and group species according to their shared evolutionary responses to selective pressures. In this way, it becomes possible to make meaningful comparisons among ecosystems and communities and to predict how plant communities might respond to changes in their environment. Here, we classified common alpine plants which occur in snowpatches (Early and Late snowmelt sites) and in adjacent vegetation (Snow-free sites which melt early in the growing season) using Grime's CSR plant strategy scheme. Alpine plant communities are largely driven by environmental filters associated with a relatively constant gradient of snowmelt timing. Since snow persistence influences the abiotic environment and plant assemblages alike, we hypothesised that these patterns would be reflected in community CSR scores. Weighted community CSR scores were clustered towards the stress-tolerator (S) corner of the triangular CSR space, and Snow-free communities were significantly more stress-tolerant than Early and Late snowmelt communities. This suggests that snowpatch communities are functionally distinct from surrounding vegetation when considering the major axes of plant variation identified by CSR theory. These results lend further support to the importance of the timing of snowmelt as a key filter, influencing how species and plant strategy types distribute themselves across the alpine landscape

Germination at extreme temperatures : implications for alpine shrub encroachment

Worldwide, shrub cover is increasing across alpine and tundra landscapes in response to warming ambient temperatures and declines in snowpack. With a changing climate, shrub encroachment may rely on recruitment from seed occurring outside of the optimum temperature range. We used a temperature gradient plate in order to determine the germination niche of 14 alpine shrub species. We then related the range in laboratory germination temperatures of each species to long-term average temperature conditions at: (1) the location of the seed accession site and (2) across each species geographic distribution. Seven of the species failed to germinate sufficiently to be included in the analyses. For the other species, the germination niche was broad, spanning a range in temperatures of up to 17 ◦C, despite very low germination rates in some species. Temperatures associated with the highest germination percentages were all above the range of temperatures present at each specific seed accession site. Optimum germination temperatures were consistently within or higher than the range of maximum temperatures modelled across the species’ geographic distribution. Our results indicate that while some shrub species germinate well at high temperatures, others are apparently constrained by an inherent seed dormancy. Shrub encroachment in alpine areas will likely depend on conditions that affect seed germination at the microsite-scale, despite overall conditions becoming more suitable for shrubs at high elevations

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement : an Australian mountain ecosystems case study

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which has already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we used a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold-standard in informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and paucity of data

The thermal tolerance of photosynthetic tissues: a global systematic review and agenda for future research

Understanding plant thermal tolerance is fundamental to predicting impacts of extreme temperature events that are increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe. Extremes, not averages, drive species evolution, determine survival, and increased crop performance. To better prioritise agricultural and natural system research, it is crucial to evaluate how researchers are assessing the capacity of plants to tolerate extreme events. We conducted a systematic review to determine how plant thermal tolerance research is distributed across wild and domesticated plants, growth forms and biomes, and identify crucial knowledge gaps. Our review shows that most thermal tolerance research examines cold tolerance of cultivated species; ~5% of articles consider both heat and cold tolerance. Plants of extreme environments are understudied, and techniques widely applied in cultivated systems are largely unused in natural systems. Lastly, we find that lack of standardised methods and metrics compromises the potential for mechanistic insight. Our review provides an entry point for those new to the methods used in plant thermal tolerance research and bridges often disparate ecological and agricultural perspectives for the more experienced. We present a considered agenda of thermal tolerance research priorities to stimulate efficient, reliable, and repeatable research across the spectrum of plant thermal tolerance

Increased Soil Frost Versus Summer Drought as Drivers of Plant Biomass Responses To Reduced Precipitation: Results from A Globally-Coordinated Field Experiment

Reduced precipitation treatments often are used in field experiments to explore the effects of drought on plant productivity and species composition. However, in seasonally snow-covered regions reduced precipitation also reduces snow cover, which can increase soil frost depth, decrease minimum soil temperatures and increase soil freeze-thaw cycles. Therefore, in addition to the effects of reduced precipitation on plants via drought, freezing damage to overwintering plant tissues at or below the soil surface could further affect plant productivity and relative species abundances during the growing season. We examined the effects of both reduced rainfall (via rain-out shelters) and reduced snow cover (via snow removal) at 13 sites globally (primarily grasslands) within the framework of the International Drought Experiment, a coordinated distributed experiment. Plant cover was estimated at the species level and aboveground biomass was quantified at the functional group level. Among sites, we observed a negative correlation between the snow removal effect on minimum soil temperature and plant biomass production the next growing season. Three sites exhibited significant rain-out shelter effects on plant productivity, but there was no correlation among sites between the rain-out shelter effect on minimum soil moisture and plant biomass. There was no interaction between snow removal and rain-out shelters for plant biomass, although these two factors only exhibited significant effects simultaneously for a single site. Overall, our results reveal that reduced snowfall, when it decreases minimum soil temperatures, can be an important component of the total effect of reduced precipitation on plant productivity

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types