Spaceborne monitoring of Arctic lake ice in a changing climate

Lake ice phenology (timing of ice-on and ice-off) and thickness are changing in response to generally warmer climate conditions at high northern latitudes observed during recent decades. Monitoring changes in the lake ice cover provides valuable evidence in assessing climate variability in the Arctic. To enhance our understanding of the role of lake ice in the Arctic cryosphere and to evaluate the extent to which Arctic lakes have been impacted by the contemporary changing climate, development of a lake ice monitoring system at pan-Arctic scale is needed. While large lakes across the Arctic are currently being monitored through satellite observations, there are extremely sparse and mostly non-existent records tracking the changes in small high-latitude lakes. Employing a combination of spaceborne observations from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical sensors, and simulations from the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), this researched aimed to investigate changes in winter ice growth and ice phenology of lakes across the Arctic, focus being given to smaller lakes on the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and lakes of various sizes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). To determine the changes in the fraction of lakes that freeze to bed (grounded ice) in late winter on the NSA from 1991 to 2011, a time series of ERS-1/2 was analysed. Results show a trend toward increasing floating ice fractions from 1991 to 2011, with the greatest change occurring in April, when the grounded ice fraction declined by 22% (α = 0.01). This finding is in good agreement with the decrease in ice thickness simulated with CLIMo, a lower fraction of lakes frozen to the bed corresponding to a thinner ice cover. Model simulations over the same period as SAR acquisitions (1991-2011) indicate a trend toward thinner ice covers by 18-22 cm (no-snow and 53% snow depth scenarios, α = 0.01). The results emphasize the regime shifts that these lakes are currently undergoing, including shorter ice seasons. The longer-term trends (1950-2011) derived from model simulations show a decrease in the ice cover duration by ~ 24 days consequent to later freeze-up dates by 5.9 days (α = 0.1) and earlier break-up dates by 17.7-18.6 days (α = 0.001). The temporal evolution of backscatter (σ0) from two C-band SAR sensors – Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath and RADARSAT-2 ScanSAR Wide Swath – was then used to investigate the potential of high temporal-frequency SAR for determining lake ice phenological events (e.g. freeze onset, melt onset and water-clear-of-ice). Results show that combined SAR observations are generally suitable for detection of important lake ice events timing. However, the wide range of incidence angles and to a certain extent the orbit differences between the observations, the wind effect, particularly during fall freeze-up, the low differences in σ0 during transition from a grounded-ice cover to melt onset of ice in early spring, complicate the detection of lake ice phenological events. In order to order to document the response of ice cover of lakes in the Canadian High Arctic to climate conditions during recent years, a 15-year time series (1997-2011) of RADARSAT-1/2 ScanSAR Wide Swath, ASAR Wide Swath and Landsat acquisitions were analyzed. Results show that earlier melt onset occurred earlier for all 11 polar-desert and polar-oasis lakes that were investigated. With the exception of Lower Murray Lake, all lakes experienced earlier ice-minimum and water-clear-of-ice dates, with greater changes being observed for polar-oasis lakes (9-23.6 days earlier water-clear-of-ice for lakes located in polar oases and 1.6-20 days earlier water-clear-of-ice for polar-desert lakes). Additionally, results suggest that some lakes may be transitioning from a perennial to a seasonal ice regime, with only a few lakes maintaining a perennial ice cover on occasional years. Aside Lake Hazen and Murray Lakes that preserved their ice cover during the summer of 2009, no residual ice was observed on any of the other lakes from 2007 to 2011. This research provides the foundation of a lake-ice monitoring network that can be built on with the newly launched and future SAR and multispectral missions. Additionally, this study shows that in response to warmer climate conditions, Arctic lakes are experiencing regime shifts with overall shorter ice seasons, thinner ice covers, fewer lakes that freeze to the bottom and more lakes that lose the perennial ice cover and experience a seasonal ice regime

Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis

Air temperature and winter precipitation changes over the last five decades have impacted the timing, duration, and thickness of the ice cover on Arctic lakes as shown by recent studies. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3 m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in thinner ice covers and consequently, in a smaller fraction of lakes freezing to their bed in winter. However, these changes have not yet been comprehensively documented. The analysis of a 20 yr time series of European remote sensing satellite ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and a numerical lake ice model were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to the bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last six decades. Given the large area covered by these lakes, changes in the regional climate and weather are related to regime shifts in the ice cover of the lakes. Analysis of available SAR data from 1991 to 2011, from a sub-region of the NSA near Barrow, shows a reduction in the fraction of lakes that freeze to the bed in late winter. This finding is in good agreement with the decrease in ice thickness simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), a lower fraction of lakes frozen to the bed corresponding to a thinner ice cover. Observed changes of the ice cover show a trend toward increasing floating ice fractions from 1991 to 2011, with the greatest change occurring in April, when the grounded ice fraction declined by 22% (α = 0.01). Model results indicate a trend toward thinner ice covers by 18–22 cm (no-snow and 53% snow depth scenarios, α = 0.01) during the 1991–2011 period and by 21–38 cm (α = 0.001) from 1950 to 2011. The longer trend analysis (1950–2011) also shows a decrease in the ice cover duration by ~24 days consequent to later freeze-up dates by 5.9 days (α = 0.1) and earlier break-up dates by 17.7–18.6 days (α = 0.001)

Analytical solutions of the microscopic two-band theory for the temperature dependence of the upper critical fields of pure MgB₂ compared with experimental data

Main theoretical results of the microscopic two-band theory for the temperature dependence of the upper critical fields H c₂(ab) and Hc₂(c) in pure two-band systems like MgB₂ are presented. The analytical solutions for the upper critical fields near the superconducting transition temperature and near the zero temperature were transformed to be directly compared with experimental data. The experimental Hc₂(ab) and Hc₂(c) temperature dependences of textured MgB2 films near the superconducting transition temperature were measured and compared with the respective theoretical formulas. The results of this theoretical approach were also compared with earlier published experimental data of other authors. The chosen method allows obtaining an accurate match between the theoretical expressions and experimental results

Effects of aerosol size and coating thickness on the molecular detection using extractive electrospray ionization

Extractive electrospray ionization (EESI) has been a well-known technique for high-throughput online molecular characterization of chemical reaction products and intermediates, detection of native biomolecules, in vivo metabolomics, and environmental monitoring with negligible thermal and ionization-induced fragmentation for over two decades. However, the EESI extraction mechanism remains uncertain. Prior studies disagree on whether particles between 20 and 400nm diameter are fully extracted or if the extraction is limited to the surface layer. Here, we examined the analyte extraction mechanism by assessing the influence of particle size and coating thickness on the detection of the molecules therein. We find that particles are extracted fully: organics-coated NH4NO3 particles with a fixed core volume (156 and 226nm in diameter without coating) showed constant EESI signals for NH4NO3 independent of the shell coating thickness, while the signals of the secondary organic molecules comprising the shell varied proportionally to the shell volume. We also found that the EESI sensitivity exhibited a strong size dependence, with an increase in sensitivity by 1-3 orders of magnitude as particle size decreased from 300 to 30nm. This dependence varied with the electrospray (ES) droplet size, the particle size and the residence time for coagulation in the EESI inlet, suggesting that the EESI sensitivity was influenced by the coagulation coefficient between particles and ES droplets. Overall, our results indicate that, in the EESI, particles are fully extracted by the ES droplets regardless of the chemical composition, when they are collected by the ES droplets. However, their coalescence is not complete and depends strongly on their size. This size dependence is especially relevant when EESI is used to probe size-varying particles as is the case in aerosol formation and growth studies with size ranges below 100nm. © 2021 The Author(s)

Bulk and molecular-level composition of primary organic aerosol from wood, straw, cow dung, and plastic burning

During the past decades, the source apportionment of organic aerosol (OA) in ambient air has been improving substantially. The database of source retrieval model-resolved mass spectral profiles for different sources has been built with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, distinguishing similar sources (such as wildfires and residential wood burning) remains challenging, as the hard ionization of the AMS mostly fragments compounds and therefore cannot capture detailed molecular information. Recent mass spectrometer technologies of soft ionization and high mass resolution have allowed for aerosol characterization at the molecular formula level. In this study, we systematically estimated the emission factors and characterized the primary OA (POA) chemical composition with the AMS and the extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF) for the first time from a variety of solid fuels, including beech logs, spruce and pine logs, spruce and pine branches and needles, straw, cow dung, and plastic bags. The emission factors of organic matter estimated by the AMS and hydrocarbon gases estimated by the total hydrocarbon analyzer are 16.2 ± 10.8 g kg−1 and 30.3 ± 8.5 g kg−1 for cow dung burning, which is generally higher than that of wood (beech, spruce, and pine), straw, and plastic bag burning (in the range from 1.1 to 6.2 g kg−1 and 14.1 to 19.3 g kg−1). The POA measured by the AMS shows that the f60 (mass fraction of m/z 60) varies from 0.003 to 0.04 based on fuel types and combustion efficiency for wood (beech, spruce, and pine) and cow dung burning. On a molecular level, the dominant compound of POA from wood, straw, and cow dung is C6H10O5 (mainly levoglucosan), contributing ∼ 7 % to ∼ 30 % of the total intensity, followed by C8H12O6 with fractions of ∼ 2 % to ∼ 9 %. However, as they are prevalent in all burning of biomass material, they cannot act as tracers for the specific sources. By using the Mann–Whitney U test among the studied fuels, we find specific potential new markers for these fuels from the measurement of the AMS and EESI-TOF. Markers from spruce and pine burning are likely related to resin acids (e.g., compounds with 20–21 carbon atoms). The product from the pyrolysis of hardwood lignins is found especially in beech log burning. Nitrogen-containing species are selected markers primarily for cow dung open burning. These markers in the future will provide support for the source apportionment.</p

Once bitten, not necessarily shy? Determinants of foreign market re-entry commitment strategies

We investigate foreign market re-entry commitment strategies, namely the changes in the modes of operation (commitment) undertaken by multinational enterprises (MNEs) as they return to foreign markets from which they had previously exited. We combine organisational learning theory with the institutional change literature to examine the antecedents of re-entry commitment strategies. From an analysis of 1,020 re-entry events between 1980 and 2016, we find that operation mode prior to exit is a strong predictor of subsequent re-entry mode. Contrary to the predictions of learning theory, we did not find support for the effect of experience accumulated during the initial market endeavour on the re-entry commitment strategies of MNEs. In turn, exit motives significantly impact on the re-entrants' decision to re-enter via a different mode of operation, by either increasing or decreasing their commitment to the market. We show that re-entrants do not replicate unsuccessful operation mode strategies if they had previously underperformed in the market. When favourable host institutional changes occur during the time-out period re-entrants tend to increase commitment in the host market irrespective of the degree of prior experience accumulated in the market

Ethical Issues in Measuring Biomarkers in Children’s Environmental Health

Background: Studying the impact of environmental exposures is important in children because they are more vulnerable to adverse effects on growth, development, and health. Assessing exposure in children is difficult, and measuring biomarkers is potentially useful. Research measuring biomarkers in children raises a number of ethical issues, some of which relate to children as research subjects and some of which are specific to biomarker research. Objective: As an international group with experience in pediatric research, biomarkers, and the ethics of research in children, we highlight the ethical issues of undertaking biomarker research in children in these environments. Discussion: Significant issues include undertaking research in vulnerable communities, especially in developing countries; managing community expectations; obtaining appropriate consent to conduct the research; the potential conflicts of obtaining permission from an ethics review board in an economically developed country to perform research in a community that may have different cultural values; returning research results to participants and communities when the researchers are uncertain of how to interpret the results; and the conflicting ethical obligations of maintaining participant confidentiality when information about harm or illegal activities mandate reporting to authorities. Conclusion: None of these challenges are insurmountable and all deserve discussion. Pediatric biomarker research is necessary for advancing child health

Molecular characterization of ultrafine particles using extractive electrospray time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s).Aerosol particles negatively affect human health while also having climatic relevance due to, for example, their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei. Ultrafine particles (diameter Dp < 100 nm) typically comprise the largest fraction of the total number concentration, however, their chemical characterization is difficult because of their low mass. Using an extractive electrospray time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF), we characterize the molecular composition of freshly nucleated particles from naphthalene and b-caryophyllene oxidation products at the CLOUD chamber at CERN. We perform a detailed intercomparison of the organic aerosol chemical composition measured by the EESI-TOF and an iodide adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer equipped with a filter inlet for gases and aerosols (FIGAERO-I-CIMS). We also use an aerosol growth model based on the condensation of organic vapors to show that the chemical composition measured by the EESI-TOF is consistent with the expected condensed oxidation products. This agreement could be further improved by constraining the EESI-TOF compound-specific sensitivity or considering condensed-phase processes. Our results show that the EESI-TOF can obtain the chemical composition of particles as small as 20 nm in diameter with mass loadings as low as hundreds of ng m_3 in real time. This was until now difficult to achieve, as other online instruments are often limited by size cutoffs, ionization/thermal fragmentation and/or semicontinuous sampling. Using real-time simultaneous gas- and particle-phase data, we discuss the condensation of naphthalene oxidation products on a molecular level.Peer reviewe

A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making

While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies – using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules – have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called “IMAGE” to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed

An intercomparison study of four different techniques for measuring the chemical composition of nanoparticles

Currently, the complete chemical characterization of nanoparticles (< 100 nm) represents an analytical challenge, since these particles are abundant in number but have negligible mass. Several methods for particle-phase characterization have been recently developed to better detect and infer more accurately the sources and fates of sub-100 nm particles, but a detailed comparison of different approaches is missing. Here we report on the chemical composition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) nanoparticles from experimental studies of α-pinene ozonolysis at −50, −30, and −10 ∘C and intercompare the results measured by different techniques. The experiments were performed at the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). The chemical composition was measured simultaneously by four different techniques: (1) thermal desorption–differential mobility analyzer (TD–DMA) coupled to a NO$^-_3$ chemical ionization–atmospheric-pressure-interface–time-of-flight (CI–APi–TOF) mass spectrometer, (2) filter inlet for gases and aerosols (FIGAERO) coupled to an I$^−$ high-resolution time-of-flight chemical ionization mass spectrometer (HRToF-CIMS), (3) extractive electrospray Na$^+$ ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF), and (4) offline analysis of filters (FILTER) using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) and heated electrospray ionization (HESI) coupled to an Orbitrap high-resolution mass spectrometer (HRMS). Intercomparison was performed by contrasting the observed chemical composition as a function of oxidation state and carbon number, by estimating the volatility and comparing the fraction of volatility classes, and by comparing the thermal desorption behavior (for the thermal desorption techniques: TD–DMA and FIGAERO) and performing positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis for the thermograms. We found that the methods generally agree on the most important compounds that are found in the nanoparticles. However, they do see different parts of the organic spectrum. We suggest potential explanations for these differences: thermal decomposition, aging, sampling artifacts, etc. We applied PMF analysis and found insights of thermal decomposition in the TD–DMA and the FIGAERO