Dual Beta Modeling of Karachi Stock Exchange

In the past three decades, the documentation of many features of returns in equity market has been noticed. But less attention has been paid to the feature attacks more commenting else, namely that there are extensive periods of time when equity prices rise and fall colloquially, these periods of time referred to as bull and bear markets respectively. The purpose of this research is to study the betas in the bull and bear market condition for a sample of stocks in the Karachi Stock Market (KSE), major stock market in Pakistan. The data consist of daily returns of two major sectors (Petroleum & Commercial banks) of KSE during the period of February 1997 to December 2007. The data pertains to the daily adjusted closing prices of 15 scripts that form a part of KSE index. This paper investigates whether betas of bull and bear market are statistically different from each other? KSE does not integrate any distribution so we use t-statistics.  Analysis shows that beta is higher when the market is bearish than that when market is bullish for nine stocks while the reverse is true for other six stocks. Keywords: Portfolio Beta, Portfolio Returns, KSE, Dual Bet

Numerical Solution of Airy Differential Equation by Using Haar Wavelet

Haar wavelet is exceedingly simple and optimized completely for computers, so that it can be used for solving ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations without a hassle. In this paper, numerical solutions of Airy differential equations have been obtained by using the Haar Wavelet Method . Comparisons with exact solutions make clear that the Haar Wavelet Method is a powerful candidate for solving the Airy differential equation. Moreover the use of Haar wavelets is found to be accurate, uncomplicated, speedy, adaptable and convenient with very small computation costs and the extra perk of being computationally attractive. Key Words: Orthogonal Wavelet, Airy Equation, Function Approximation, Operational Matri

Forecasting Gold Price: Evidence from Pakistan Market

In our day to day life, predictability of gold’s prices is significant in many domains such as economics financial and political environment. The main objective of this research is to forecasts the prices of gold, making use of ARIMA and two distinct versions of wavelet scheme. The monthly data consists of 221 observations starting from Dec 2005 to April 2013, has been used in this research. After evaluating the accuracy of these models by mean absolute error and mean square error, it turns out that wavelet neural transformation has better prediction accuracy than rest of the models. Also, this study utilizes the return forecasts from the above mentioned different models in a simple trading strategy and compare pay offs in order to know as to which framework serves a better forecasting model. Keywords: Gold Price, ARIMA, Wavelet, Multiple Regression, Wavelet Neural Transform, Error Analysi

Application of Elzaki Transform Method on Some Fractional Differential Equations

In the paper, we begin by introducing the origin of fractional calculus and the consequent application of the Elzaki transform on fractional derivatives. The Elzaki transformation may be used to solve mathematical problems without resorting to a new frequency domain. Once we establish this connection firmly in the general setting, we turn our attention to the application of the Elzaki transform method to some non-homogeneous fractional, ordinary differential equations. Ultimately, we acquire the graphical solution of the problem by using Matlab 2013a, developed by MathWorks Key Words: Elzaki Transform, Fractional Differential Equation, Linear and Non-linear, Initial Value Problem, Non-homogenou

A Hybrid Gold’s Returns Prediction Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

Consumers have produced extraordinary levels of demand of Gold since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008 and investment in small coins and bars striking a record high. Since the previous decade, the prices have reached the sky, but the demand for gold remains firm. With such an enormous need for gold coming from whole over the globe, forecast gold prices are of great interest. The main aim of this study is to forecast the price of gold returns, making use of Autoregressive (AR), Empirical Mode Decomposition Autoregressive (EMDAR) and hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Autoregressive Neural Network (EMDARNN). The daily data consists of 4837 observations starting from Jan 1995 to June 2013, has been used in this research. After assessing the accuracy of these models by mean absolute error and mean square error, it turns out that hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Autoregressive Neural Network excels all the other methods and produces better forecasting with high precision. Keywords: Gold Price, Autoregressive, Empirical Mode decomposition, Artificial Neural Networ

Solving linear and nonlinear klein-gordon equations by new perturbation iteration transform method

We present an effective algorithm to solve the Linear and Nonlinear KleinGordon equation, which is based on the Perturbation Iteration Transform Method (PITM). The Klein-Gordon equation is the name given to the equation of motion of a quantum scalar or pseudo scalar field, a field whose quanta are spin-less particles. It describes the quantum amplitude for finding a point particle in various places, the relativistic wave function, but the particle propagates both forwards and backwards in time. The Perturbation Iteration Transform Method (PITM) is a combined form of the Laplace Transform Method and Perturbation Iteration Algorithm. The method provides the solution in the form of a rapidly convergent series. Some numerical examples are used to illustrate the preciseness and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the PITM is very efficient, simple and can be applied to other nonlinear problems.Publisher's Versio

The Role of Foreign Aid in the Development of Pakistan’s Education Sector: A Time-Lag Analysis

This study examines the role of foreign aid in the development of Pakistan’s education sector by using the time series data of foreign aid and educational outcomes (number of schools, students, teachers and literacy rates) from 1967 to 2010. Time lag analysis shows, the foreign aid of the current year (T) has no impact on educational outcomes. However, foreign aid of the previous year (T-1) had a significant positive effect on all educational outcomes. Similarly, financial aid received by the country two years previous (T-2) also established a positive relationship with all the education development indicators, except literacy rates

Effect of early tranexamic acid administration on mortality, hysterectomy, and other morbidities in women with post-partum haemorrhage (WOMAN): an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Post-partum haemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal death worldwide. Early administration of tranexamic acid reduces deaths due to bleeding in trauma patients. We aimed to assess the effects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, hysterectomy, and other relevant outcomes in women with post-partum haemorrhage. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women aged 16 years and older with a clinical diagnosis of post-partum haemorrhage after a vaginal birth or caesarean section from 193 hospitals in 21 countries. We randomly assigned women to receive either 1 g intravenous tranexamic acid or matching placebo in addition to usual care. If bleeding continued after 30 min, or stopped and restarted within 24 h of the first dose, a second dose of 1 g of tranexamic acid or placebo could be given. Patients were assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Participants, care givers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. We originally planned to enrol 15 000 women with a composite primary endpoint of death from all-causes or hysterectomy within 42 days of giving birth. However, during the trial it became apparent that the decision to conduct a hysterectomy was often made at the same time as randomisation. Although tranexamic acid could influence the risk of death in these cases, it could not affect the risk of hysterectomy. We therefore increased the sample size from 15 000 to 20 000 women in order to estimate the effect of tranexamic acid on the risk of death from post-partum haemorrhage. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN76912190 (Dec 8, 2008); ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00872469; and PACTR201007000192283. Findings Between March, 2010, and April, 2016, 20 060 women were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive tranexamic acid (n=10 051) or placebo (n=10 009), of whom 10 036 and 9985, respectively, were included in the analysis. Death due to bleeding was significantly reduced in women given tranexamic acid (155 [1·5%] of 10 036 patients vs 191 [1·9%] of 9985 in the placebo group, risk ratio [RR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·65–1·00; p=0·045), especially in women given treatment within 3 h of giving birth (89 [1·2%] in the tranexamic acid group vs 127 [1·7%] in the placebo group, RR 0·69, 95% CI 0·52–0·91; p=0·008). All other causes of death did not differ significantly by group. Hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (358 [3·6%] patients in the tranexamic acid group vs 351 [3·5%] in the placebo group, RR 1·02, 95% CI 0·88–1·07; p=0·84). The composite primary endpoint of death from all causes or hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (534 [5·3%] deaths or hysterectomies in the tranexamic acid group vs 546 [5·5%] in the placebo group, RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·87-1·09; p=0·65). Adverse events (including thromboembolic events) did not differ significantly in the tranexamic acid versus placebo group. Interpretation Tranexamic acid reduces death due to bleeding in women with post-partum haemorrhage with no adverse effects. When used as a treatment for postpartum haemorrhage, tranexamic acid should be given as soon as possible after bleeding onset. Funding London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Pfizer, UK Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe