Computing marine plankton connectivity under thermal constraints

Ocean currents are a key driver of plankton dispersal across the oceanic basins. However, species specific temperature constraints may limit the plankton dispersal. We propose a methodology to estimate the connectivity pathways and timescales for plankton species with given constraints on temperature tolerances, by combining Lagrangian modeling with network theory. We demonstrate application of two types of temperature constraints: thermal niche and adaptation potential and compare it to the surface water connectivity between sample stations in the Atlantic Ocean. We find that non-constrained passive particles representative of a plankton species can connect all the stations within three years at the surface with pathways mostly along the major ocean currents. However, under thermal constraints, only a subset of stations can establish connectivity. Connectivity time increases marginally under these constraints, suggesting that plankton can keep within their favorable thermal conditions by advecting via slightly longer paths. Effect of advection depth on connectivity is observed to be sensitive to the width of the thermal constraints, along with decreasing flow speeds with depth and possible changes in pathways

Strategies for simulating the drift of marine debris

Modelling the drift of marine debris in quasi-real time can be of societal relevance. One pertinent example is Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. The aircraft is assumed to have crashed in the Indian Ocean, leaving floating wreckage to drift on the surface. Some of these items were recovered around the western Indian Ocean. We use ocean currents simulated by an operational ocean model in conjunction with surface Stokes drift to determine the possible paths taken by the debris. We consider: (1) How important is the influence of surface waves on the drift? (2) What are the relative benefits of forward- and backward-tracking in time? (3) Does including information from more items refine the most probable crash-site region? Our results highlight a critical contribution of Stokes drift and emphasise the need to know precisely the buoyancy characteristics of the items. The differences between the tracking approaches provide a measure of uncertainty which can be minimised by simulating a sufficiently large number of virtual debris. Given the uncertainties associated with the timings of the debris sightings, we show that at least 5 items are required to achieve an optimal most probable crash-site region. The results have implications for other drift simulation applications

Do tidal sand waves always regenerate after dredging?

Tidal sand waves are rhythmic bedforms found on sandy continental shelves that pose a threat to offshore activities. While emphasis is placed on studying their natural morphodynamic evolution, little is known about if and how fast sand waves recover after dredging. This work presents an analysis of multibeam echosounder data collected at three former sand extraction sites on the Belgian continental shelf. At one of the sites, sand waves seemed to reappear approximately 5 years after dredging had stopped, which did not happen at the other two sites during the measurement period (5 and 9 years). The lack of recovery in those sites is likely the result of larger depths and smaller local sediment availability compared with the site where recovery occurred. Furthermore, these data reveal that in the latter site sand wave recovery was established mainly through local sediment redistribution. • Tidal sand waves are isolated from bathymetric data of the Belgian continental shelf. • At only one of the three sites, sand waves seemed to regenerate after dredging. • Possible explanations are differences in water depth and local sediment availability. • The regenerating tidal sand waves do so as a result of local redistribution of sand

Modelling submerged biofouled microplastics and their vertical trajectories

The fate of (micro)plastic particles in the open ocean is controlled by biological and physical processes. Here, we model the effects of biofouling on the subsurface vertical distribution of spherical, virtual plastic particles with radii of 0.01–1 mm. The biological specifications include the attachment, growth and loss of algae on particles. The physical specifications include four vertical velocity terms: advection, wind-driven mixing, tidally induced mixing and the sinking velocity of the biofouled particle. We track 10 000 particles for 1 year in three different regions with distinct biological and physical properties: the low-productivity region of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, the high-productivity region of the equatorial Pacific and the high mixing region of the Southern Ocean. The growth of biofilm mass in the euphotic zone and loss of mass below the euphotic zone result in the oscillatory behaviour of particles, where the larger (0.1–1.0 mm) particles have much shorter average oscillation lengths (5000 m). Our results show that the vertical movement of particles is mainly affected by physical (wind-induced mixing) processes within the mixed-layer and biological (biofilm) dynamics below the mixed layer. Furthermore, positively buoyant particles with radii of 0.01–1.0 mm can sink far below the euphotic zone and mixed layer in regions with high near-surface mixing or high biological activity. This work can easily be coupled to other models to simulate open-ocean biofouling dynamics, in order to reach a better understanding of where ocean (micro)plastic ends up

Laboratory experiments reveal intrinsic self-sustained oscillations in ocean relevant rotating fluid flows

Several ocean Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) encounter a lateral gap along their path. Examples are the Kuroshio Current penetrating into the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait and the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current leaping from the Yucatan peninsula to Florida as part of the Gulf Stream system. Here, we present results on WBC relevant flows, generated in the world’s largest rotating platform, where the Earth’s sphericity necessary to support WBCs is realized by an equivalent topographic effect. The fluid is put in motion by a pump system, which produces a current that is stationary far from the gap. When the jet reaches the gap entrance, time-dependent patterns with complex spatial structures appear, with the jet leaking, leaping or looping through the gap. The occurrence of these intrinsic self-sustained periodic or aperiodic oscillations depending on current intensity is well known in nonlinear dynamical systems theory and occurs in many real systems. It has been observed here for the first time in real rotating fluid flows and is thought to be highly relevant to explain low-frequency variability in ocean WBCs

Tropical biogeomorphic seagrass landscapes for coastal protection:Persistence and wave attenuation during major storms events

The intensity of major storm events generated within the Atlantic Basin is projected to rise with the warming of the oceans, which is likely to exacerbate coastal erosion. Nature-based flood defence has been proposed as a sustainable and effective solution to protect coastlines. However, the ability of natural ecosystems to withstand major storms like tropical hurricanes has yet to be thoroughly tested. Seagrass meadows both stabilise sediment and attenuate waves, providing effective coastal protection services for sandy beaches. To examine the tolerance of Caribbean seagrass meadows to extreme storm events, and to investigate the extent of protection they deliver to beaches, we employed a combination of field surveys, biomechanical measurements and wave modelling simulations. Field surveys of sea- grass meadows before and after a direct hit by the category 5 Hurricane Irma documented that estab- lished seagrass meadows of Thalassia testudinum re- mained unaltered after the extreme storm event. The flexible leaves and thalli of seagrass and calci- fying macroalgae inhabiting the meadows were shown to sustain the wave forces that they are likely to experience during hurricanes. In addition, the seagrass canopy and the complex biogeomorphic landscape built by the seagrass meadows combine to significantly dissipate extreme wave forces, ensuring that erosion is minimised within sandy beach fore- shores. The persistence of the Caribbean seagrass meadows and their coastal protection services dur- ing extreme storm events ensures that a stable coastal ecosystem and beach foreshore is maintained in tropical regions

Restricted dispersal in a sea of gene flow

Howfar domarine larvae disperse in the ocean? Decades of population genetic studies have revealed generally low levels of genetic structure at large spatial scales (hundreds of kilometres). Yet this result, typically based on discrete sampling designs, does not necessarily imply extensive dispersal. Here, we adopt a continuous sampling strategy along 950 km of coast in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea to address this question in four species. In line with expectations, we observe weak genetic structure at a large spatial scale. Nevertheless, our continuous sampling strategy uncovers a pattern of isolation by distance at small spatial scales (few tens of kilometres) in two species. Individual- based simulations indicate that this signal is an expected signature of restricted dispersal. At the other extreme of the connectivity spectrum, two pairs of individuals that are closely related genetically were found more than 290 km apart, indicating long-distance dispersal. Such a combination of restricted dispersal with rare long-distance dispersal events is supported by a high-resolution biophysical model of larval dispersal in the study area, and we posit that it may be common in marine species. Our results bridge population genetic studies with direct dispersal studies and have implications for the design of marine reserve networksVersión del edito

Exceptional freshening and cooling in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic caused by reduced Labrador Sea surface heat loss

Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Published theories for the mechanisms driving the freshening include: reduced transport of saltier, warmer surface waters northwards from the subtropics associated with reduced meridional overturning; shifts in the pathways of fresher, cooler surface water from the Labrador Sea driven by changing patterns of wind stress; and the eastward expansion of the subpolar gyre. Using output from a high-resolution hindcast model simulation, we propose that the primary cause of the exceptional freshening and cooling is reduced surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea. Tracking virtual fluid particles in the model backwards from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic between 1990 and 2020 shows the major cause of the freshening and cooling to be an increased outflow of relatively fresh and cold surface waters from the Labrador Sea; with a minor contribution from reduced transport of warmer, saltier surface water northward from the subtropics. The cooling, but not the freshening, produced by these changing proportions of waters of subpolar and subtropical origin is mitigated by reduced along-track heat loss to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic Current. We analyse modelled boundary exchanges and water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea to show that since 2000, while inflows of lighter surface waters remain steady, the increasing output of these waters is due to reduced surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea beginning in the early 2000s. Tracking particles further upstream reveals that the primary source of the increased volume of lighter water transported out of the Labrador Sea is increased recirculation of water, and therefore longer residence times, in the upper 500–1000 m of the subpolar gyre

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports

Measuring currents, ice drift, and waves from space: the Sea Surface KInematics Multiscale monitoring (SKIM) concept

We propose a new satellite mission that uses a near-nadir Ka-band Doppler radar to measure surface currents, ice drift and ocean waves at spatial scales of 40?km and more, with snapshots at least every day for latitudes 75 to 82, and every few days otherwise. The use of incidence angles at 6 and 12 degrees allows a measurement of the directional wave spectrum which yields accurate corrections of the wave-induced bias in the current measurements. The instrument principle, algorithm for current velocity and mission performance are presented here. The proposed instrument can reveal features on tropical ocean and marginal ice zone dynamics that are inaccessible to other measurement systems, as well as a global monitoring of the ocean mesoscale that surpasses the capability of today?s nadir altimeters. Measuring ocean wave properties facilitates many applications, from wave-current interactions and air-sea fluxes to the transport and convergence of marine plastic debris and assessment of marine and coastal hazards