Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank

This paper analyses the performance of the inflation forecast-based (IFB) monetary policy rules in the quarterly projection model of the Czech National Bank. The paper begins by reviewing the model and its parametrization, including the variance-covariance matrix of disturbances employed in simulations. The main part of the paper presents the results of an extensive grid search over various targeting horizons and coefficient values for a simple IFB rule with optimized coefficients, and suggests three possibilities for improvement: a shorter targeting horizon, a higher relative weight placed on inflation gap stabilization, and a lower coefficient on partial interest rate adjustment. These results are supported by an analysis of the impact of individual shocks on the optimal coefficients of the IFB rule. The last section of the paper argues for inclusion of the real exchange rate stabilization objective in the policy maker’s loss function and repeats the grid search for an optimal rule allowing for the real exchange rate feedback term. The previous results are not dramatically altered and we conclude that the stabilization properties of the extended rules are comparable with the those of the original optimized IFB rules.Exchange rates, inflation targeting, monetary policy rules, open economy.

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries – economic structures, recent developments and role in the global economy

In the wake of high and rising oil prices since 2003, the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have seen dynamic economic development, enhancing their role in the global economy as investors and trade partners. Real GDP growth has been buoyant, with non-oil activity expanding faster than oil GDP. Macroeconomic developments have also been characterised by large fiscal and current account surpluses as a result of rising oil revenues, notwithstanding fiscal expansion and rapid import growth. The most significant macroeconomic challenge faced by GCC countries is rising inflation in an environment in which the contribution of monetary policy to containing inflationary pressure is constrained by the exchange rate regimes. The overall favourable macroeconomic backdrop of recent years has provided GCC countries with an opportunity to tackle long-standing structural challenges, such as the diversification of oil-centred economies and reform of the labour markets. In a global context, apart from developing into a pole of global economic growth, GCC countries – together with other oil-exporting countries – have become a major net supplier of capital in global markets, second only to East Asia. As a result, they have become part of the international policy debate on global imbalances. Furthermore, GCC countries are home to some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, which raises several financial stability issues. Their role as trade partners has also increased, with the European Union being the only major region in the world maintaining a significant surplus in bilateral trade with the GCC. GCC countries are also key players in global energy markets in terms of production, exports and the availability of spare capacity. Their role is likely to become even more pivotal in the future as they command vast oil and gas reserves and benefit from relatively low costs in exploiting oil reserves. JEL Classification: F40, F30, F14, E60, N15, O53, Q40.Gulf Cooperation Council, global imbalances, sovereign wealth funds, financial stability, oil markets.

Furtwänglers Taschentuch: Der Gebrauch dokumentarischer Materialien in Filmen über die Zeit des Nationalsozialismus

Taking Sides – Der Fall Furtwängler (2001), Der Untergang (2004), Sophie Scholl – die letzten Tage, Dresden (both 2006) and similar recent fiction films that tell stories of the time of National Socialism aim to not only entertain, but also to educate and to enhance historical knowledge. In order to fulfil this task, they usually explicitly or implicitly claim to show truth in a fiction film. As far as content is concerned, this claim to truth can often be seen in the references made to historical sources or memoirs. This study looks beyond the content level by investigating the impact that the claim to truth in fiction film has on style and structure of such films. It mainly focuses on the interaction of fictional and factual (often documentary) material. A close look at the different uses of factual materials in fiction films and other stylistic features such as colours, titles, and choices of actors, demonstrates the importance of these features for the films' claim for a high level authenticity and hence truth. Yet the examples examined in this study also reveal that this material, far from granting a neutral perspective, is used to underline and strengthen not the 'true story' but the interpretation of history favoured by the film makers

A zero-exposure time test on an erratic boulder: evaluating the problem of pre-exposure in Surface Exposure Dating

Die Oberflächendatierung mittels in-situ produzierten kosmogenen Nukliden hat sich in den letzten Jahren in der Quartärgeologie zu einer wichtigen und häufig angewandten Methode entwickelt. Eine Anwendung ist die Altersbestimmung von erratischen Blöcken auf Moränen. Ein wesentliches Problem ist jedoch die Ermittlung einer eventuellen vorherigen Bestrahlungsperiode eines Blockes. Wir haben dies getestet, indem wir alle Seiten eines kürzlich exponierten Blockes beprobten und die Proben auf schon vorhandene Nuklide hin untersuchten. Der untersuchte Block liegt auf der rechten lateralen Moräne des jüngsten Gletschervorstoßes des Glacier de Tsijiore Nouve im Val d’Arolla in der Schweiz. Die holozänen Gletscherschwankungen wurden durch eine Kartierung rekonstruiert. Durch die ideale geometrische Verteilung von Akkumulations- und Ablationsgebiet reagiert dieser Gletscher schnell auf Änderungen der Massenbilanz. Daher ist er besonders gut für einen solchen Test geeignet. Der beprobte Block wurde 1991 durch den Gletscher abgelagert. Durch die Annahme, dass er vorher keiner kosmogenen Strahlung ausgesetzt war, sollte seine Nuklidkonzentration annähernd null sein. Die gemessenen 10Be/9Be Verhältnisse der fünf Proben waren innerhalb der Fehler nicht zu unterscheiden von Blindprobenwerten. Dies zeigt, dass die Proben keiner Vorbestrahlung ausgesetzt waren. Gemessene 21Ne/20Ne und 22Ne/20Ne Verhältnisse bei drei Proben sind ähnlich derer in der Luft, mit keiner nachweisbaren vorhergehenden kosmogenen Ne Anreicherung.researc

Surface exposure ages imply multiple low-amplitude Pleistocene variations in East Antarctic Ice Sheet, Ricker Hills, Victoria Land

One of the major issues in (palaeo-) climatology is the response of Antarctic ice sheets to global climate changes. Antarctic ice volume has varied in the past but the extent and timing of these fluctuations are not well known. In this study, we address the question of amplitude and timing of past Antarctic ice level changes by surface exposure dating using in situ produced cosmogenic nuclides (10Be and 21Ne). The study area lies in the Ricker Hills, a nunatak at the boundary of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in southern Victoria Land. By determining exposure ages of erratic boulders from glacial drifts we directly date East Antarctic Ice Sheet variations. Erosion-corrected neon and beryllium exposure ages indicate that a major ice advance reaching elevations of about 500m above present ice levels occurred between 1.125 and 1.375 million years before present. Subsequent ice fluctuations were of lesser extent but timing is difficult as all erratic boulders from related deposits show complex exposure histories. Sample-specific erosion rates were on the order of 20-45cmMa-1 for a quartzite and 10-65cmMa-1 for a sandstone boulder and imply that the modern cold, arid climate has persisted since at least the early Pleistocen

State-of-the-art of spatial arch bridges

The paper describes a new form of bridge called a spatial arch bridge. This bridge type was developed in response to the demand for landmark structures, which have started to appear in the modern urban landscape to provide a symbol of originality, innovation and progress. Spatial arch bridges are defined as bridges in which the vertical deck loads produce bending moments and shear forces not contained in the arch plane, owing to their geometrical and structural configuration. Moreover, the arch itself may not be contained in a plane. The different variables and geometries that create such a structural configuration have been studied and classified. A wide compilation of examples of this bridge type has been made in chronological order, according to their construction date, from Maillarts first concrete spatial arch bridges to the latest designs and materials

Analysis of Eduardo Torroja's Tempul Aqueduct an important precursor of modern cable-stayed bridges, extradosed bridges and prestressed concrete

[EN] This paper describes a study of the Tempul Aqueduct, one of the first structures designed and built by Eduardo Torroja. At a time when computers did not exist, Torroja's courage and innovation were outstanding. He was in no way constrained by a lack of theoretical knowledge, inadequate materials and the contemporary doubts about cable-stayed structures. In fact, he was able to build one of the world's first prestressed concrete structures, and a precursor to modern cable-stayed and extradosed bridges. This paper briefly reviews the history of the Tempul Aqueduct, gives the results of the analysis of this structure by several Finite Element Models (FEMs), and compares the FEM results to those obtained by Torroja himself. The FEM results confirm the validity of Torroja's conceptual design. The paper also contains a detailed analysis of the influence of the structural system on the behavior of the bridge and the effect of removing the live loads with the aim of providing a better understanding of the context and behavior of the Tempul aqueduct.Funding for this research has been provided to Mr Lozano-Galant by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (Research Project BIA2013-47290-R from FEDER funds). The authors are also grateful to Prof. S. Buonopane of Bucknell University and J.L. Temprado, of COMPOSAN, for their assistance and support. The authors also want to thank the CEHOPU-Archivo Torroja, for all the information and support provided.Lozano-Galant, JA.; Paya-Zaforteza, I. (2017). Analysis of Eduardo Torroja's Tempul Aqueduct an important precursor of modern cable-stayed bridges, extradosed bridges and prestressed concrete. Engineering Structures. 150:955-968. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.07.057S95596815