An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories cross after several decades, before diverging again. We find that their global mean temperatures are, to first order, linear with cumulative emissions, though regional differences in temperature of up to 1.5K exist when cumulative emissions of each pair coincide. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above cumulative emissions of around one trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). Most carbon fluxes and stores are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. Averaged over the two fixed-emissions experiments, the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC-1, at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of 0.8-2.5 K TtC-1

Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

CO<sub>2</sub> and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation

[Letter] Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions

Quantum Gravity Effects in Black Holes at the LHC

We study possible back-reaction and quantum gravity effects in the evaporation of black holes which could be produced at the LHC through a modification of the Hawking emission. The corrections are phenomenologically taken into account by employing a modified relation between the black hole mass and temperature. The usual assumption that black holes explode around $1$TeV is also released, and the evaporation process is extended to (possibly much) smaller final masses. We show that these effects could be observable for black holes produced with a relatively large mass and should therefore be taken into account when simulating micro-black hole events for the experiments planned at the LHC.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, extended version of hep-ph/0601243 with new analysis of final products, final version accepted for publication in J. Phys.

An Application of Physical Flexibility and Software Reconfigurability for the Automation of Battery Module Assembly

Batteries are a strategic technology to decarbonize conventional automotive powertrains and enable energy policy turnaround from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The demand for battery packs is rising, but they remain unable to compete with conventional technologies, primarily due to higher costs. Major sources of cost remain in manufacturing and assembly. These costs can be attributed to a need for high product quality, material handling complexity, uncertain and fluctuating production volumes, and an unpredictable breadth of product variants. This research paper applies the paradigms of flexibility from a mechanical engineering perspective, and reconfigurability from a software perspective to form a holistic, integrated manufacturing solution to better realize product variants. This allows manufacturers to de-risk investment as there is increased confidence that a facility can meet new requirements with reduced effort, and also shows how part of the vision of Industry 4.0 associated with the integration and exploitation of data can be fulfilled. A functional decomposition of battery packs is used to develop a foundational understanding of how changes in customer requirements can result in physical product changes. A Product, Process, and Resource (PPR) methodology is employed to link physical product characteristics to physical and logical characteristics of resources. This mapping is leveraged to enable the design of a gripper with focused flexibility by the Institute for Machine Tools and Industrial Management (iwb) at the Technical University of Munich, as it is acknowledged that mechanical changes are challenging to realize within industrial manufacturing facilities. Reconfigurability is realised through exploitation of data integration across the PPR domains, through the extension of the capabilities of a non-commercial virtual engineering toolset developed by the Automation Systems Group at the University of Warwick. The work shows an “end-to-end” approach that practically demonstrates the application of the flexibility and reconfigurability paradigms within an industrial engineering context

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

International audienceGlobal temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%–95%: 47%–63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N–90N) from 1920–1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963–1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989–2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%–31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988–2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future

Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe

Changes in intensity, frequency, and location of temperature extreme events are a focus for many studies that often rely on simulations from climate models to assess changes in temperature extremes. Given the use of climate models for attributing such events to human and natural influences and for projecting future changes, an assessment of the capability of climate models to properly simulate the mechanisms associated with temperature extreme events is necessary. In this study, known mechanisms and relevant meteorological variables are explored in a composite analysis to identify and quantify a climatology of synoptic weather patterns related to hot and cold seasonal temperature extreme events over Central Europe. The analysis is based on extremes that recur once or several times per season for better sampling. Weather patterns from a selection of CMIP5 models are compared with patterns derived from the ERA interim reanalysis. The results indicate that climate models simulate mechanisms associated with temperature extreme events reasonably well, in particular circulation-based mechanisms. The amplitude and average length of events is assessed, where in some cases significant deviations from ERA interim are found. In three cases, the models have on average significantly more days per season with extreme events than ERA interim. Quantitative analyses of physical links between extreme temperature and circulation, relative humidity, and radiation reveal that the strength of the link between the temperature and the variables does not vary greatly from model to model and ERA interim

Climate change amplifies plant invasion hotspots in Nepal

Aim Climate change has increased the risk of biological invasions, particularly by increasing the climatically suitable regions for invasive alien species. The distribution of many native and invasive species has been predicted to change under future climate. We performed species distribution modelling of invasive alien plants (IAPs) to identify hotspots under current and future climate scenarios in Nepal, a country ranked among the most vulnerable countries to biological invasions and climate change in the world. Location Nepal. Methods We predicted climatically suitable niches of 24 out of the total 26 reported IAPs in Nepal under current and future climate (2050 for RCP 6.0) using an ensemble of species distribution models. We also conducted hotspot analysis to highlight the geographic hotspots for IAPs in different climatic zones, land cover, ecoregions, physiography and federal states. Results Under future climate, climatically suitable regions for 75% of IAPs will expand in contrast to a contraction of the climatically suitable regions for the remaining 25% of the IAPs. A high proportion of the modelled suitable niches of IAPs occurred on agricultural lands followed by forests. In aggregation, both extent and intensity (invasion hotspots) of the climatically suitable regions for IAPs will increase in Nepal under future climate scenarios. The invasion hotspots will expand towards the high‐elevation mountainous regions. In these regions, land use is rapidly transforming due to the development of infrastructure and expansion of tourism and trade. Main conclusions Negative impacts on livelihood, biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as economic loss caused by IAPs in the future, may be amplified if preventive and control measures are not immediately initiated. Therefore, the management of IAPs in Nepal should account for the vulnerability of climate change‐induced biological invasions into new areas, primarily in the mountains