Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic

Historical accounts of the mortality outcomes of the Black Death plague pandemic are variable across Europe, with much higher death tolls suggested in some areas than others. Here the authors use a 'big data palaeoecology' approach to show that land use change following the pandemic was spatially variable across Europe, confirming heterogeneous responses with empirical data.The Black Death (1347-1352 ce) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe's population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic's causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, 'big data palaeoecology', which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death's mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death's mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics

Vegetation responses to climatic changes during the late glacial according to palaeobotanical data in western Lithuania : a preliminary results

The organic-rich material has been studied from the bottom part of lacustrine sediments of the Lake Kasuciai, western Lithuania. Radiocarbon dates and palaeobotanical data showed that these sediments accumulated between 13,500 and 9000 14C yr BP. The Late Glacial interstadial is defined by the dominance of Characeae and accumulation of carbonate. The Bolling is characterized by the pioneer taxa and the communities of open habitats. During the Allerod pine replaced the light demanding taxa that show development of a closer woodland habitat and dryness of climate. The short period between Bolling and Allerod with increasing representation of Betula and plants typical for the highly eroded habitats could be correlated with Older Dryas. The onset of the Younger Dryas is marked by degradation of the forest cover and expansion of heliophytic grasses. Entire vegetation cover with birch and pine forest was settled during the Preborial. Formation of calcareous sediments and appearance of thermophilous taxa confirm the climatic amelioration

Climate variability and associated vegetation response throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) between 60 and 8 ka

Abstract Records of past climate variability and associated vegetation response exist in various regions throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). To date, there has been no coherent synthesis of the existing palaeo-records. During an INTIMATE meeting (Cluj Napoca, Romania) focused on identifying CEE paleo-records, it was decided to address this gap by presenting the palaeo-community with a compilation of high-quality climatic and vegetation records for the past 60–8 ka. The compilation should also serve as a reference point for the use in the modelling community working towards the INTIMATE project goals, and in data-model inter-comparison studies. This paper is therefore a compilation of up to date, best available quantitative and semi-quantitative records of past climate and biotic response from CEE covering this period. It first presents the proxy and archive used. Speleothems and loess mainly provide the evidences available for the 60–20 ka interval, whereas pollen records provide the main source of information for the Lateglacial and Holocene. It then examines the temporal and spatial patterns of climate variability inferred from different proxies, the temporal and spatial magnitude of the vegetation responses inferred from pollen records and highlights differences and similarities between proxies and sub-regions and the possible mechanisms behind this variability. Finally, it identifies weakness in the proxies and archives and their geographical distribution. This exercise also provides an opportunity to reflect on the status of research in the area and to identify future critical areas and subjects of research

Climate Variability and Associated Vegetation Response throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) between 60 and 8 ka

Records of past climate variability and associated vegetation response exist in various regions throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). To date, there has been no coherent synthesis of the existing palaeo-records. During an INTIMATE meeting (Cluj Napoca, Romania) focused on identifying CEE paleo-records, it was decided to address this gap by presenting the palaeo-community with a compilation of high-quality climatic and vegetation records for the past 60–8 ka. The compilation should also serve as a reference point for the use in the modelling community working towards the INTIMATE project goals, and in data-model inter-comparison studies. This paper is therefore a compilation of up to date, best available quantitative and semi-quantitative records of past climate and biotic response from CEE covering this period. It first presents the proxy and archive used. Speleothems and loess mainly provide the evidences available for the 60–20 ka interval, whereas pollen records provide the main source of information for the Lateglacial and Holocene. It then examines the temporal and spatial patterns of climate variability inferred from different proxies, the temporal and spatial magnitude of the vegetation responses inferred from pollen records and highlights differences and similarities between proxies and sub-regions and the possible mechanisms behind this variability. Finally, it identifies weakness in the proxies and archives and their geographical distribution. This exercise also provides an opportunity to reflect on the status of research in the area and to identify future critical areas and subjects of research

Testing the Effect of Relative Pollen Productivity on the REVEALS Model: A Validated Reconstruction of Europe-Wide Holocene Vegetation

Reliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucial to improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effects of environmental variables and land-use change on ecosystems and biodiversity, and mitigating their effects in the future. We present here the most spatially extensive and temporally continuous pollen-based reconstructions of plant cover in Europe (at a spatial resolution of 1 degrees x 1 degrees) over the Holocene (last 11.7 ka BP) using the 'Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites' (REVEALS) model. This study has three main aims. First, to present the most accurate and reliable generation of REVEALS reconstructions across Europe so far. This has been achieved by including a larger number of pollen records compared to former analyses, in particular from the Mediterranean area. Second, to discuss methodological issues in the quantification of past land cover by using alternative datasets of relative pollen productivities (RPPs), one of the key input parameters of REVEALS, to test model sensitivity. Finally, to validate our reconstructions with the global forest change dataset. The results suggest that the RPPs.st1 (31 taxa) dataset is best suited to producing regional vegetation cover estimates for Europe. These reconstructions offer a long-term perspective providing unique possibilities to explore spatial-temporal changes in past land cover and biodiversity

Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked tospatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic

Historical accounts of the mortality outcomes of the Black Death plague pandemic are variable across Europe, with much higher death tolls suggested in some areas than others. Here the authors use a `big data palaeoecology' approach to show that land use change following the pandemic was spatially variable across Europe, confirming heterogeneous responses with empirical data. The Black Death (1347-1352 ce) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe's population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic's causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, `big data palaeoecology', which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death's mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death's mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics

Testing the Effect of Relative Pollen Productivity on the REVEALS Model: A Validated Reconstruction of Europe-Wide Holocene Vegetation

Reliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucial to improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effects of environmental variables and land-use change on ecosystems and biodiversity, and mitigating their effects in the future. We present here the most spatially extensive and temporally continuous pollen-based reconstructions of plant cover in Europe (at a spatial resolution of 1° × 1°) over the Holocene (last 11.7 ka BP) using the ‘Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites’ (REVEALS) model. This study has three main aims. First, to present the most accurate and reliable generation of REVEALS reconstructions across Europe so far. This has been achieved by including a larger number of pollen records compared to former analyses, in particular from the Mediterranean area. Second, to discuss methodological issues in the quantification of past land cover by using alternative datasets of relative pollen productivities (RPPs), one of the key input parameters of REVEALS, to test model sensitivity. Finally, to validate our reconstructions with the global forest change dataset. The results suggest that the RPPs.st1 (31 taxa) dataset is best suited to producing regional vegetation cover estimates for Europe. These reconstructions offer a long-term perspective providing unique possibilities to explore spatial-temporal changes in past land cover and biodiversity

Testing the Effect of Relative Pollen Productivity on the REVEALS Model : A Validated Reconstruction of Europe-Wide Holocene Vegetation

Funding Information: This research was funded by the TERRANOVA Project, H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 813904. Funding Information: The work was supported by the project TERRANOVA, the European Landscape Learning Initiative, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 813904. The output reflects the views of the authors only, and the European Union cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This study is also a contribution to the Past Global Change (PAGES) project and its working group LandCover6k ( http://pastglobalchanges.org/landcover6k , accessed on 24 April 2023) that in turn received support from the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Academy of Sciences, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. M.-J. Gaillard acknowledges the financial support from Linnaeus University’s Faculty of Health and Life Science and the Swedish strategic research area MERGE (ModEling the Regional and Global Earth system; www.merge.lu.se , accessed on 24 April 2023). Anneli Poska was supported by the project TrackLag, Tracking the time-lags of species response to environmental change using palaeo-proxy data and modelling (ETF grant PRG323). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.Reliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucial to improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effects of environmental variables and land-use change on ecosystems and biodiversity, and mitigating their effects in the future. We present here the most spatially extensive and temporally continuous pollen-based reconstructions of plant cover in Europe (at a spatial resolution of 1 degrees x 1 degrees) over the Holocene (last 11.7 ka BP) using the 'Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites' (REVEALS) model. This study has three main aims. First, to present the most accurate and reliable generation of REVEALS reconstructions across Europe so far. This has been achieved by including a larger number of pollen records compared to former analyses, in particular from the Mediterranean area. Second, to discuss methodological issues in the quantification of past land cover by using alternative datasets of relative pollen productivities (RPPs), one of the key input parameters of REVEALS, to test model sensitivity. Finally, to validate our reconstructions with the global forest change dataset. The results suggest that the RPPs.st1 (31 taxa) dataset is best suited to producing regional vegetation cover estimates for Europe. These reconstructions offer a long-term perspective providing unique possibilities to explore spatial-temporal changes in past land cover and biodiversity.Peer reviewe