Comparison of Two Detailed Models of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-­borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-­by-­side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito?s biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbedconditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivityto environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions.Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (director delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.Fil: Legros, Mathieu. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gould, Fred. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Lloyd, Alun L.. National Institutes of Health; Estados Unido

Highlights: Spring Council Meeting

Council members present at the May 24, 1981, meeting were Keiiti Aki, Steven Burges (for Jim Wallis), Peter S. Eagleson, E. R. Engdahl, Charles E. Helsley, James R. Heirtzler, Carl Kisslinger, Leslie H. Meredith, Chris N. K. Mooers, Norman F. Ness, Marcia M. Neugebauer, James J. O'Brien, Richard Rapp, Carl Sagan, James C. Savage, Joseph V. Smith, Fred Spilhaus, Donald L. Turcotte, James A. Van Allen, J. Tuzo Wilson, and Jay Winston (for Elmar R. Reiter until his arrival at 6:50 P.M.). David Strangway, representing the Canadian Geophysical Union, and Peter Steinhauser, representing the European Geophysical Society, were special observers at the meeting. Council meetings are open, and a number of section secretaries, committee chairmen, journal editors, and other members attended. The following major actions were adopted by the Council: The experiment of publishing oceanography and lower‐atmosphere papers in JGR Green issues alternate to those containing upper‐atmosphere papers will be continued through 1982. From preliminary indications the experiment seems to be working, but a full year of data, including a renewal cycle, is needed to assess the success of the experiment. Final decision will be made prior to the 1983 dues notices

Life table analysis of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) infesting sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) in São Paulo

An ecological life table for eggs and nymphs of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) was constructed with data obtained from orange orchards (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) in 2 regions of the State of São Paulo, over 4 generations in the period from XI-2006 to V-2007, comprising spring, summer, and fall seasons. Young growing shoots with D. citri eggs present were identifed, and live individuals were counted until adult emergence. No predatory arthropods were observed in association with D. citri eggs and nymphs during the study. The mean parasitism of fourth- and ffth-instar nymphs by Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) was 2.3%. The durations of the egg–adult period were similar among the 4 generations, ranging from 18.0 to 24.7 d (at mean temperatures ranging from 21.6 to 26.0 °C) and followed the temperature requirement models obtained in the laboratory for D. citri. However, survival from the egg to the adult stage for the same period varied considerably from 1.7 to 21.4%; the highest mortalities were observed in the egg and small nymphal (frst- to thirdinstar) stages, which were considered to be key phases for population growth of the pest.Uma tabela de vida ecológica foi construída para ovos e ninfas de Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) com dados obtidos em pomares de laranja (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) em 2 regiões do estado de São Paulo, com 4 gerações, no período de novembro de 2006 a maio de 2007, compreendendo as estações de primavera, verão e outono. Ramos jovens em crescimento com a presença de ovos de D. citri foram identificados e os indivíduos vivos foram contados até a emergência dos adultos. Nenhum predador foi observado associado a ovos e ninfas de D. citri durante o estudo. A taxa média de parasitismo de ninfas de quarto e quinto ínstares por Tamarixia radiata Waterson (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) foi de 2.3%. A duração do período de ovo a adulto foi semelhante entre as quatro gerações, variando de 18.0 a 24.7 dias (com temperaturas médias de 21.6 a 26.0 °C) e seguiram os modelos de exigencias térmicas obtidas em laboratório para D. citri. Todavia, a sobrevivencia de ovo até o estágio adulto variou consideravelmente para o mesmo período, de 1.7 a 21.4%, sendo que as maiores mortalidades foram observadas nos estágios de ovos e ninfas pequenas (de primeiro a terceiro ínstares), as quais foram consideradas fases chaves para o crescimento populacional desta praga.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dayside ionospheric convection changes in response to long-period interplanetary Magnetic field oscillations: Determination of the ionospheric phase velocity

Ground magnetic field perturbations recorded by the CANOPUS magnetometer network in the 7 to 13 MLT sector are used to examine how reconfigurations of the dayside polar ionospheric flow take place in response to north-south changes of the IMF. During the 6-hour interval in question IMF Bz oscillates between ±7 nT with about a 1-hour period. Corresponding variations in the ground magnetic disturbance are observed which we infer are due to changes in ionospheric flow. Cross correlation of the data obtained from two ground stations at 73.5° magnetic latitude, but separated by ∼2 hours in MLT, shows that changes in the flow are initiated in the prenoon sector (∼10 MLT) and then spread outward toward dawn and dusk with a phase speed of ∼5 km s−1 over the longitude range ∼8 to 12 MLT, slowing to ∼2 km s−1 outside this range. Cross correlating the data from these ground stations with IMP 8 IMF Bz records produces a MLT variation in the ground response delay relative to the IMF which is compatible with these deduced phase speeds. We interpret these observations in terms of the ionospheric response to the onset, expansion and decay of magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities

"Actual" does not imply "feasible"

The familiar complaint that some ambitious proposal is infeasible naturally invites the following response: Once upon a time, the abolition of slavery and the enfranchisement of women seemed infeasible, yet these things were actually achieved. Presumably, then, many of those things that seem infeasible in our own time may well be achieved too and, thus, turn out to have been perfectly feasible after all. The Appeal to History, as we call it, is a bad argument. It is not true that if some desirable state of affairs was actually achieved, then it was feasible that it was achieved. “Actual” does not imply “feasible,” as we put it. Here is our objection. “Feasible” implies “not counterfactually fluky.” But “actual” does not imply “not counterfactually fluky.” So, “actual” does not imply “feasible.” While something like the Flukiness Objection is sometimes hinted at in the context of the related literature on abilities, it has not been developed in any detail, and both premises are inadequately motivated. We offer a novel articulation of the Flukiness Objection that is both more precise and better motivated. Our conclusions have important implications, not only for the admissible use of history in normative argument, but also by potentially circumscribing the normative claims that are applicable to us

Why the Realist-Instrumentalist Debate about Rational Choice Rests on a Mistake

Within the social sciences, much controversy exists about which status should be ascribed to the rationality assumption that forms the core of rational choice theories. Whilst realists argue that the rationality assumption is an empirical claim which describes real processes that cause individual action, instrumentalists maintain that it amounts to nothing more than an analytically set axiom or ‘as if’ hypothesis which helps in the generation of accurate predictions. In this paper, I argue that this realist-instrumentalist debate about rational choice theory can be overcome once it is realised that the rationality assumption is neither an empirical description nor an ‘as if’ hypothesis, but a normative claim

Habitat filtering determines spatial variation of macroinvertebrate community traits in northern headwater streams

Although our knowledge of the spatial distribution of stream organisms has been increasing rapidly in the last decades, there is still little consensus about trait-based variability of macroinvertebrate communities within and between catchments in near-pristine systems. Our aim was to examine the taxonomic and trait based stability vs. variability of stream macroinvertebrates in three high-latitude catchments in Finland. The collected taxa were assigned to unique trait combinations (UTCs) using biological traits. We found that only a single or a highly limited number of taxa formed a single UTC, suggesting a low degree of redundancy. Our analyses revealed significant differences in the environmental conditions of the streams among the three catchments. Linear models, rarefaction curves and beta-diversity measures showed that the catchments differed in both alpha and beta diversity. Taxon- and trait-based multivariate analyses also indicated that the three catchments were significantly different in terms of macroinvertebrate communities. All these findings suggest that habitat filtering, i.e., environmental differences among catchments, determines the variability of macroinvertebrate communities, thereby contributing to the significant biological differences among the catchments. The main implications of our study is that the sensitivity of trait-based analyses to natural environmental variation should be carefully incorporated in the assessment of environmental degradation, and that further studies are needed for a deeper understanding of trait-based community patterns across near-pristine streams

On the multispacecraft determination of periodic surface wave phase speeds and wavelengths

Observations of surface waves on the magnetopause indicate a wide range of phase velocities and wavelengths. Their multispacecraft analysis allows a more precise determination of wave characteristics than ever before and reveal shortcomings of approximations to the phase speed that take a predetermined fraction of the magnetosheath speed or the average flow velocity in the boundary layer. We show that time lags between two or more spacecraft can give a qualitative upper estimate, and we confirm the unreliability of flow approximations often used by analyzing a few cases. Using two‐point distant magnetic field observations and spectral analysis of the tailward magnetic field component, we propose an alternative method to estimate the wavelength and phase speed at a single spacecraft from a statistical fit to the data at the other site