Risk Assessment in the Design phase of Maritime Autonomous Ships – A Human-centered approach

Norsk sammendrag Maritime Autonome Skips-System (MASS) er spådd å ha en betydelig innvirkning på shipping-industriens bærekraft med lovnader om grønnere og sikrere løsninger (se Fan et al. (2020); Porathe et al. (2018)). En av de største utfordringene med ny teknologi er dannelsen av nye risikomønstre og sårbarheter. Teknologier fungerer ikke i et vakuum, og automatiserte systemoperasjoner vil involvere menneskeelementet, da deres handling fortsatt representerer den siste og viktigste barrieren mot ulykker i sosiotekniske systemer. Dermed vil et betydelig bidrag til risikoer ligge i interaksjonen og samspillet mellom operatøren (menneskeelementet) og de teknologiske systemene. I overskuelig fremtid må en menneskelig operatør på en eller annen måte være "i loopen", overvåke operasjonen og være i beredskap for å ta over kontrollen fra et kontrollsenter (ofte referert til som et Shore Control Center (SCC)). Det overordnede formålet med avhandlingen er å bidra med nødvendig kunnskap for utvikling av forbedrede metoder for risikovurderinger og risikoreduserende tiltak i designfasen av MASS. Målet er detaljert i tre delmål som adresseres i fem forskningsartikler. Artiklene har et tverrfaglig fokus og benytter kvalitative metoder med forskningssyntese som bærende metodikk. Hovedbidraget er et initielt rammeverk for en menneskesentrert risikoanalyse for designfasen av MASS. I denne avhandlingen er nåværende metoder, verktøy og tilnærminger for risikoanalyse blitt gjennomgått for å vurdere deres anvendbarhet for MASS, spesielt i designet av brukergrensesnittet mellom menneske og maskin (HMI) i et SCC. Oppgaven utfordrer den tradisjonelle risikoforståelsen, der risiko defineres kvantitativt som produktet av sannsynlighet og konsekvenser. Med begrenset empirisk data om MASS-prestasjon og den komplekse og programvareintensive teknologien til MASS, er nøyaktige kvantitative risikovurderinger ikke mulig. I stedet er et bredere bilde som reflekterer ulike synspunkter, antagelser og tenkemåter, som fremhever hendelser, konsekvenser og usikkerheter, utforsket. Dette inkluderer aspekter knyttet til «Meaningful Human Control», «Human-centred Design» og tilnærminger innen Safety I, II og III. Oppgaven problematiserer også at risikovurderinger ofte er isolert eller separert fra designprosessen. Den vanligste konsekvensen er at sikkerhet behandles som en bekreftelsesaktivitet etter faktum (Leveson & Thomas, 2018). Dette er typisk en summativ tilnærming til risikovurderinger, der fokus er å evaluere om et forhåndsdefinert sikkerhetsmål (risikoakseptkriterier) er oppfylt. Formativ analyse fokuserer derimot på prosessen, det vil si å forbedre kvaliteten på designet. Risikovurderinger kan forbedre forståelsen av systemet, sikkerhetskontrollene og farene for aktivitetene som undersøkes. Forskjellige risikovurderingsmetoder bør anvendes til forskjellige formål i forskjellige faser av designprosessen. Ved å fokusere på målet med å utføre en risikovurdering som et verktøy for å «designe for sikkerhet» og beslutningstaking i designfasen av MASS-konsepter, er hovedbidraget fra oppgaven et initielt rammeverk for en tverrfaglig risikovurdering som fokuserer på menneskelige aspekter. Den menneskesentrerte risikoanalysen i designfasen av MASS er inspirert av scenarioanalysen i «Crisis and Operability»-studie (CRIOP). Risikoanalysen identifiserer sikkerhetsutfordringer ved å involvere sluttbrukeren, det vil si å inkludere operatørens perspektiv, og kan bidra til å avgjøre MASS-teknologisystemets og operatørenes roller, og hvem som har ansvar for å utføre ulike funksjoner i ulike operasjoner.English summary Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs) are said to have a considerable impact on the shipping industry's sustainability, promising greener and safer solutions (e.g., Fan et al. (2020); Porathe et al. (2018)). Technological developments within software and hardware have led to a rapid increase in automation in many systems and applications. However, because it will change the way work is done, the chance is that it will introduce new risks. One of the biggest challenges of new technologies is the creation of new risk patterns and vulnerabilities. Technologies do not operate in a vacuum, and highly automated system operations will involve the human element as their action still represents the final and most important barrier against accident occurrence in sociotechnical systems. Hence, a considerable contribution to risks will lie in the interaction between the human element as an operator and the technological systems. In the foreseeable future, a human operator must in some way be "in the loop," supervising the operation and on stand-by to take over control from a land-based control interface referred to as a Shore Control Centre (SCC). The overall objective of the thesis is to provide necessary knowledge for the development of improved methods for risk assessments and mitigation in the design phase of MASS. The objective is detailed in three sub-objectives addressed in five research articles. The articles have an interdisciplinary focus and utilise qualitative methods with research synthesis as the bearing methodology. In this thesis, current risk assessment methods, tools and approaches have been reviewed to evaluate their applicability for MASS, particularly in the design of the Human Machine Interface (HMI) at the SCC. The thesis challenges the traditional risk concept, where risk is defined quantitatively as a product of probability and consequences. With the limited empirical data on MASS performance and the complex and software-intensive technology of MASS, accurate quantitative risk estimations are not feasible. Instead, a broader picture reflecting different views, assumptions, and ways of thinking, highlighting events, consequences, and uncertainties has been explored. This includes aspects related to Meaningful Human Control, Human-centred Design, and approaches within Safety I, II and III. The thesis also problematises that, too often, risk assessments are isolated or separated from the design or systems engineering process. The most common consequence is that safety is treated as an after-the-fact assurance activity (Leveson & Thomas, 2018). This is typically a summative approach to risk assessments, where the focus is to evaluate if a predefined safety target (risk acceptance criteria) is met. Formative analysis, on the contrary, focuses on the process, i.e., improving the quality of the design. Risk assessments can improve the understanding of the system, safety controls and hazards of the activities under investigation. Different risk assessment methods should be applied for different purposes at different phases of the design process. By focusing on the goal of carrying out a risk assessment as a tool for designing for safety, and decision making in the design phase of MASS concepts, the main contribution of the thesis is an initial framework for an interdisciplinary risk assessment focusing on human aspects. The Human-centred Risk Assessment in the design phase of MASS is inspired by the Scenario Analysis from the Crisis Intervention and Operability Study (CRIOP) framework. The assessment identifies safety issues by involving the end-user, i.e., including the operators' perspective, and can contribute to determining the MASS technical system's and operators' roles and responsibilities in executing different functions across various operations and situations. A stepwise approach is described in the thesis, and a qualitative case study of applying the method on an HMI prototype in a SCC for an autonomous urban passenger ferry is presented. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to advancing theory and practice by promoting an initial framework for a formative risk assessment where the operator capabilities are considered together with the capabilities and dependencies of the MASS technical system. Further research is, however, necessary for testing and further developing the method

Probing for proof, plausibility, principle and possibility: a new approach to assessing evidence in a systematic evidence review

This article proposes a new approach to assessing evidence during a systematic evidence review aiming to inform international development policy. Drawing lessons from a number of social science systematic evidence reviews, the paper identifies how the method’s limiting perspective on evidence (including the exclusive focus on ‘golden standard’ empirical information) has serious disadvantages for the usability of evidence reviews for policy. This article aims to provide an alternative framework that allows for a less exclusionary, yet policy-practical way of assessing evidence. We propose four perspectives on evidence, appropriate for different stages in the policy process: principle when setting or prioritising broad policy goals, plausibility when assessing specific future policies, proof when evaluating past policies and possibility when striving for innovation and allowing exchange of ideas

Hvordan kan den enkelte sykepleier bidra til trygg legemiddelhåndtering ved norske sykehus?

Bakgrunn Hver dag gjøres det feil i legemiddelhåndteringen ved norske sykehus. Gjennom årene på sykepleiestudiet, både i praksis og i jobb, har jeg observert og opplevd situasjoner der legemiddelhåndteringen utføres på måter som øker risikoen for feil. Dette har gjort at jeg har ønsket å undersøke hva sykepleiere kan gjøre for å bidra til trygg legemiddelhåndtering. Hensikt Hensikten med denne oppgaven er å belyse hvordan den enkelte sykepleier kan bidra til trygg håndtering av legemidler. Metode For å besvare denne oppgaven har jeg utført en litteraturstudie, der jeg har analysert fem forskningsartikler som omhandler sykepleieres oppfatninger og erfaringer knyttet til feil ved håndtering av legemidler. Resultater Resultatene viser at sykepleiere opplever at det er mange faktorer som påvirker tryggheten i legemiddelhåndteringen. Det kan knyttes til den enkelte sykepleieren, med faktorer knyttet til nøyaktighet, kunnskap og holdninger, til samarbeid, mellom sykepleiere, tverrfaglig eller med pasienten, og til strukturelle faktorer som arbeidsforhold, arbeidsbelastning og sikkerhetskultur. Jeg fant at travelhet kan knyttes til flere av disse faktorene. Travelheten påvirker hvordan den enkelte sykepleier møter oppgaven med istandgjøring, tilbereding og utdeling av legemidler, og hvor nøye sykepleier utfører kvalitetssikring og kontroll. I tillegg fant jeg at normer og holdninger bør få økt oppmerksomhet, og at sykepleier i større grad må sette spørsmålstegn ved eksisterende sikkerhetskultur i avdelingen

A Song of Ice and a Warm Southern Ocean: The paleoceanographic evolution of the Oligocene–Miocene Southern Ocean

The Oligocene-Miocene (~34-5 Ma) was likely characterized by globally relatively warm temperatures, high and variable CO2 levels (300-750 ppm) and fluctuating Antarctic ice volumes, and can thus function as a past analogues for future climates, considering the projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the end of this century and beyond. Yet, fundamental questions remain about the past Southern Ocean structure and its role in the (in)stability of Antarctic ice-sheets from this critical deep time slice. With my collaborators, in this thesis, I provide this context by reconstructing the latitudinal SST gradients, variability and position of ocean frontal systems and oceanic environmental conditions of Tasmanian Gateway and Drake Passage regions of the Southern Ocean from the Late Eocene until Late Miocene (37-5 Ma) using new TEX86-based SSTs and dinoflagellate cyst assemblage data. By quantifying Oligocene to Miocene oceanic conditions from critical locations around Antarctica we provide new insights for an improved mechanistic understanding of Southern Ocean paleoceanographic evolution. This involves new reconstructions of Southern Ocean circulation and frontal system migrations during past warm Oligocene and Miocene climates, which shows us how the southern polar ocean operates under warmer-than-present-day conditions. The information on Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and ecology/environment provided in this thesis can be used as fundamental boundary condition to improve model simulations and to test the fitness of models simulating past oceanographic conditions

Human‑centred risk assessment for a land‑based control interface for an autonomous vessel

Autonomous ferries are providing new opportunities for urban transport mobility. With this change comes a new risk picture, which is characterised to a large extent by the safe transition from autonomous mode to manual model in critical situations. The paper presents a case study of applying an adapted risk assessment method based on the Scenario Analysis in the Crisis Intervention and Operability study (CRIOP) framework. The paper focuses on the applicability of the Scenario Analysis to address the human-automation interaction. This is done by presenting a case study applying the method on a prototype of a Human–Machine Interface (HMI) in the land-based control centre for an autonomous ferry. Hence, the paper presents findings on two levels: a method study and a case study. A concept of operation (CONOPS) and a preliminary hazard analysis lay the foundation for the scenario development, the analysis, and the discussion in a case study workshop. The case study involved a Scenario Analysis of a handover situation where the autonomous system asked for assistance from the operator in a land-based control centre. The results include a list of identified safety issues such as missing procedures, an alarm philosophy and an emergency preparedness plan, and a need for explainable AI. Findings from the study show that the Scenario Analysis method can be a valuable tool to address the human element in risk assessment by focusing on the operators’ ability to handle critical situations.publishedVersio

Characterization of Autonomy in Merchant Ships

utonomous ships are creating significant interest in the maritime world and the need for a more consistent definition framework is very apparent. This paper suggests building a framework based on the SAE J3016 standard for autonomous cars, but to extend it where necessary. One main difference is that ships are larger, slower and fewer than cars, but that consequences of accidents may be more severe. This is a typical characteristic of industrial autonomous systems. For ships one also must consider a more complex functional system (duration of voyage, energy, steering, hull integrity and stability etc.) as well as a very likely possibility that autonomous ships will be supervised form shore. This points to a constrained autonomy, where the system has programmable limits to the actions it may take. This creates a more complex taxonomy, in terms of the operational scenario possibilities, in how the control problem is solved and how responsibilities are divided between humans and computer systems.Characterization of Autonomy in Merchant ShipsacceptedVersio

Adopting the CRIOP Framework as an Interdisciplinary Risk Analysis Method in the Design of Remote Control Centre for Maritime Autonomous Systems

Humans are increasingly asked to interact with automation in complex and large-scale systems. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has started working on regulations for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). For the foreseeable future, unmanned ships will most likely be under supervision from a Remote Control Centre (RCC), called constrained autonomy. We see a need to include the end-user and carry out a risk-based design analysis, considering the operational quality of the RCC. This paper proposes an approach based on the CRIOP method, short for Crisis Intervention and Operability analysis. Could this framework be adapted to the evaluation of RCC used for MASS operations? What critical scenarios should be used for evaluations of the design/HMI of an RCC? The paper recommends Operational Envelopes to describe the constraints of the system and concludes with recommendations regarding an interdisciplinary, collaborative, and anticipatory analysis of the HMI to enhance operator performance and reliability.Adopting the CRIOP Framework as an Interdisciplinary Risk Analysis Method in the Design of Remote Control Centre for Maritime Autonomous SystemsacceptedVersio

Using narrative evidence synthesis in HRM research: an overview of the method, its application and the lessons learned

The use of systematic approaches to evidence review and synthesis has recently become more common in the field of organizational research, yet their value remains unclear and largely untested. First used in medical research, evidence review is a technique for identifying, evaluating and synthesizing existing empirical evidence. With greater demand for the best evidence about ‘what works’ in organizational settings, nuanced approaches to evidence synthesis have evolved to address more complex research questions. Narrative synthesis is perceived to be particularly suited to evaluating diverse evidence types spanning multiple disciplinary fields, characteristic of the HRM domain. This article evaluates the narrative evidence synthesis approach, explains how it differs from other techniques and describes a worked example in relation to employee engagement. We consider its strengths, the challenges of using it and its value in HRM research

The engagement of young people in their own advance care planning process: a systematic narrative synthesis.

Background: An increasing number of young people are living with life-limiting conditions. Current research about advance care planning for young people indicates differing experiences for those involved. Understanding how far young people are engaged in their own advance care plan is important to shape future practice and facilitate young people’s wishes. Aim: To identify and assess the current evidence to determine the barriers and facilitators to the engagement of young people in their own advance care planning process. Design: A systematic narrative synthesis according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Study quality was assessed using a quality assessment framework previously used in similar research. Data sources: CINAHL Complete, MEDLINE, PubMed and PsycINFO were searched for articles published between 1 January 1990 and 31 October 2017. Grey literature was searched using Google Scholar and Open Grey. Results: Most studies related to the engagement of young people were conducted in hospitals or other institutions. Research reported not only the aim to include young people in their own advance care planning but also potential barriers to engagement. Barriers include poor communication, conflict within relationships of those in the planning process and patchy education and training for healthcare professionals. Some existing studies are characterised by a lack of rigorous, high-quality research, limiting their impact. Conclusion: Irrespective of setting, engagement of young people would benefit their advance care planning. More detailed, high-quality research is needed to understand the extent of the barriers to young people’s engagement in their own advance care plan and how to facilitate their involvement.</p