COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND: Updatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status. FINDINGS: Among 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1. INTERPRETATION: Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK

Consensus guidelines for the use and interpretation of angiogenesis assays

The formation of new blood vessels, or angiogenesis, is a complex process that plays important roles in growth and development, tissue and organ regeneration, as well as numerous pathological conditions. Angiogenesis undergoes multiple discrete steps that can be individually evaluated and quantified by a large number of bioassays. These independent assessments hold advantages but also have limitations. This article describes in vivo, ex vivo, and in vitro bioassays that are available for the evaluation of angiogenesis and highlights critical aspects that are relevant for their execution and proper interpretation. As such, this collaborative work is the first edition of consensus guidelines on angiogenesis bioassays to serve for current and future reference

Sequencing of 640,000 exomes identifies GPR75 variants associated with protection from obesity

Large-scale human exome sequencing can identify rare protein-coding variants with a large impact on complex traits such as body adiposity. We sequenced the exomes of 645,626 individuals from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Mexico and estimated associations of rare coding variants with body mass index (BMI). We identified 16 genes with an exome-wide significant association with BMI, including those encoding five brain-expressed G protein-coupled receptors (CALCR, MC4R, GIPR, GPR151, and GPR75). Protein-truncating variants in GPR75 were observed in ∼4/10,000 sequenced individuals and were associated with 1.8 kilograms per square meter lower BMI and 54% lower odds of obesity in the heterozygous state. Knock out of Gpr75 in mice resulted in resistance to weight gain and improved glycemic control in a high-fat diet model. Inhibition of GPR75 may provide a therapeutic strategy for obesity

Germline Mutations in CIDEB and Protection against Liver Disease

BACKGROUND Exome sequencing in hundreds of thousands of persons may enable the identification of rare protein-coding genetic variants associated with protection from human diseases like liver cirrhosis, providing a strategy for the discovery of new therapeutic targets. METHODS We performed a multistage exome sequencing and genetic association analysis to identify genes in which rare protein-coding variants were associated with liver phenotypes. We conducted in vitro experiments to further characterize associations. RESULTS The multistage analysis involved 542,904 persons with available data on liver aminotransferase levels, 24,944 patients with various types of liver disease, and 490,636 controls without liver disease. We found that rare coding variants in APOB, ABCB4, SLC30A10, and TM6SF2 were associated with increased aminotransferase levels and an increased risk of liver disease. We also found that variants in CIDEB, which encodes a structural protein found in hepatic lipid droplets, had a protective effect. The burden of rare predicted loss-of-function variants plus missense variants in CIDEB (combined carrier frequency, 0.7%) was associated with decreased alanine aminotransferase levels (beta per allele, -1.24 U per liter; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.66 to -0.83; P=4.8×10-9) and with 33% lower odds of liver disease of any cause (odds ratio per allele, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.79; P=9.9×10-7). Rare coding variants in CIDEB were associated with a decreased risk of liver disease across different underlying causes and different degrees of severity, including cirrhosis of any cause (odds ratio per allele, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.70). Among 3599 patients who had undergone bariatric surgery, rare coding variants in CIDEB were associated with a decreased nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (beta per allele in score units, -0.98; 95% CI, -1.54 to -0.41 [scores range from 0 to 8, with higher scores indicating more severe disease]). In human hepatoma cell lines challenged with oleate, CIDEB small interfering RNA knockdown prevented the buildup of large lipid droplets. CONCLUSIONS Rare germline mutations in CIDEB conferred substantial protection from liver disease

Age and frailty are independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality and increased care needs in survivors: results of an international multi-centre study

Introduction: Increased mortality has been demonstrated in older adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the effect of frailty has been unclear. Methods: This multi-centre cohort study involved patients aged 18 years and older hospitalised with COVID-19, using routinely collected data. We used Cox regression analysis to assess the impact of age, frailty and delirium on the risk of inpatient mortality, adjusting for sex, illness severity, inflammation and co-morbidities. We used ordinal logistic regression analysis to assess the impact of age, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and delirium on risk of increased care requirements on discharge, adjusting for the same variables. Results: Data from 5,711 patients from 55 hospitals in 12 countries were included (median age 74, interquartile range [IQR] 54–83; 55.2% male). The risk of death increased independently with increasing age (>80 versus 18–49: hazard ratio [HR] 3.57, confidence interval [CI] 2.54–5.02), frailty (CFS 8 versus 1–3: HR 3.03, CI 2.29–4.00) inflammation, renal disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer, but not delirium. Age, frailty (CFS 7 versus 1–3: odds ratio 7.00, CI 5.27–9.32), delirium, dementia and mental health diagnoses were all associated with increased risk of higher care needs on discharge. The likelihood of adverse outcomes increased across all grades of CFS from 4 to 9. Conclusion: Age and frailty are independently associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19. Risk of increased care needs was also increased in survivors of COVID-19 with frailty or older age.</p