Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley/AGU via the DOI in this record.We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a-1. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 μmol m-2 day-1. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic

Different flavours of oxygen help quantify seasonal variations of the biological carbon pump in the Celtic Sea

Shelf seas represent only 10% of the World’s Ocean by area but support up to 30% of its primary production. There are few measurements of biological production at high spatial and temporal resolution in these physically and biologically dynamic systems. Here, we use dissolved oxygen to-argon (O2/Ar) ratios and oxygen triple isotopes in O2 (16O, 17O, 18O) to estimate net community production, N(O2/Ar), and gross O2 production, G(17O), in summer and autumn 2014 and spring and summer 2015 in the Celtic Sea, as part of the UK Shelf-Sea Biogeochemistry Programme. Surface O2/Ar concentration ratios were measured continuously using a shipboard membrane inlet mass spectrometer. Additional depth profiles of O2/Ar concentration ratios, δ(17O) and δ(18O) were measured in discrete water samples from hydrocasts. The data were combined with wind-speed based gas exchange parameterisations to calculate biological air-sea oxygen fluxes. These fluxes were corrected for diapycnal diffusion, entrainment, production below the mixed layer, and changes over time to derive N(O2/Ar) and G(17O). The Celtic Sea showed the highest G(17O) in summer 2014 (825 mmol m–2 d–1) and lowest during autumn 2014 (153 mmol m–2 d–1). N(O2/Ar) was highest in spring 2015 (43 mmol m–2 d–1), followed by summer 2014 (42 mmol m–2 d–1), with a minimum in autumn 2014 (–24 mmol m–2 d–1). Dividing the survey region into three hydrographically distinct areas (Celtic Deep, Central Celtic Sea and Shelf Edge), we found that Celtic Deep and Shelf Edge had higher N(O2/Ar) in summer (71 and 63 mmol m–2 d–1, respectively) than in spring (49 and 22 mmol m–2 d–1). This study shows regional differences in the metabolic balance within the same season, as well as higher net community production in summer than in spring in some areas and years. The seasonal patterns in biological production rates and the export efficiency (f-ratio) identified the importance of biology for supporting the Celtic Sea’s ability to act as a net CO2 sink. Our measurements thus help improve our understanding of the biological carbon pump in temperate shelf seas

Satellites will address critical science priorities for quantifying ocean carbon

The ability to routinely quantify global carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption by the oceans has become crucial: it provides a powerful constraint for establishing global and regional carbon (C) budgets, and enables identification of the ecological impacts and risks of this uptake on the marine environment. Advances in understanding, technology, and international coordination have made it possible to measure CO2 absorption by the oceans to a greater degree of accuracy than is possible in terrestrial landscapes. These advances, combined with new satellite‐based Earth observation capabilities, increasing public availability of data, and cloud computing, provide important opportunities for addressing critical knowledge gaps. Furthermore, Earth observation in synergy with in‐situ monitoring can provide the large‐scale ocean monitoring that is necessary to support policies to protect ocean ecosystems at risk, and motivate societal shifts toward meeting C emissions targets; however, sustained effort will be needed

A statistical modeling framework for characterising uncertainty in large datasets: Application to ocean colour

Uncertainty estimation is crucial to establishing confidence in any data analysis, and this is especially true for Essential Climate Variables, including ocean colour. Methods for deriving uncertainty vary greatly across data types, so a generic statistics-based approach applicable to multiple data types is an advantage to simplify the use and understanding of uncertainty data. Progress towards rigorous uncertainty analysis of ocean colour has been slow, in part because of the complexity of ocean colour processing. Here, we present a general approach to uncertainty characterisation, using a database of satellite-in situ matchups to generate a statistical model of satellite uncertainty as a function of its contributing variables. With an example NASA MODIS-Aqua chlorophyll-a matchups database mostly covering the north Atlantic, we demonstrate a model that explains 67% of the squared error in log(chlorophyll-a) as a potentially correctable bias, with the remaining uncertainty being characterised as standard deviation and standard error at each pixel. The method is quite general, depending only on the existence of a suitable database of matchups or reference values, and can be applied to other sensors and data types such as other satellite observed Essential Climate Variables, empirical algorithms derived from in situ data, or even model data

Foraging ecology of Mediterranean juvenile loggerhead turtles: insights from C and N stable isotope ratios

Bycatch is one of the key threats to juvenile marine turtles in the Mediterranean Sea. As fishing methods are regional or habitat specific, the susceptibility of marine turtles may differ according to inter- and intra-population variations in foraging ecology. An understanding of these variations is necessary to assess bycatch susceptibility and to implement region-specific management. To determine if foraging ecology differs with region, sex, and size of juvenile loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen was performed on 171 juveniles from a range of foraging regions across the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. Isotope ratios differed with geographical region, likely due to baseline variations in δ13C and δ15N values. The absence of sex-specific differences suggests that within an area, all comparably sized animals likely exploit similar foraging strategies, and therefore, their susceptibility to fisheries threats will likely be similar. The isotope ratios of juveniles occupying the North East Adriatic and North Levantine basin increased with size, potentially due to increased consumption of more prey items at higher trophic levels from a more neritic source. Isotope ratios of juveniles with access to both neritic and oceanic habitats did not differ with size which is consistent with them consuming prey items from both habitats interchangeably. With foraging habitats exploited differently among size classes in a population, the susceptibility to fisheries interactions will likely differ with size; therefore, region-specific management approaches will be needed

Controls on Open‐Ocean North Atlantic ΔpCO2 at Seasonal and Interannual Time Scales Are Different

The North Atlantic is a substantial sink for anthropogenic CO2. Understanding the mechanisms driving the sink's variability is key to assessing its current state and predicting its potential response to global climate change. Here we apply a time series decomposition technique to satellite and in situ data to examine separately the factors (both biological and nonbiological) that affect the sea‐air CO2 difference (ΔpCO2) on seasonal and interannual time scales. We demonstrate that on seasonal time scales, the subpolar North Atlantic ΔpCO2 signal is predominantly correlated with biological processes, whereas seawater temperature dominates in the subtropics. However, the same factors do not necessarily control ΔpCO2 on interannual time scales. Our results imply that the mechanisms driving seasonal variability in ΔpCO2 cannot necessarily be extrapolated to predict how ΔpCO2, and thus the North Atlantic CO2 sink, may respond to increases in anthropogenic CO2 over longer time scales

Carbon on the Northwest European Shelf: Contemporary Budget and Future Influences

A carbon budget for the northwest European continental shelf seas (NWES) was synthesized using available estimates for coastal, pelagic and benthic carbon stocks and flows. Key uncertainties were identified and the effect of future impacts on the carbon budget were assessed. The water of the shelf seas contains between 210 and 230 Tmol of carbon and absorbs between 1.3 and 3.3 Tmol from the atmosphere annually. Off-shelf transport and burial in the sediments account for 60–100 and 0–40% of carbon outputs from the NWES, respectively. Both of these fluxes remain poorly constrained by observations and resolving their magnitudes and relative importance is a key research priority. Pelagic and benthic carbon stocks are dominated by inorganic carbon. Shelf sediments contain the largest stock of carbon, with between 520 and 1600 Tmol stored in the top 0.1 m of the sea bed. Coastal habitats such as salt marshes and mud flats contain large amounts of carbon per unit area but their total carbon stocks are small compared to pelagic and benthic stocks due to their smaller spatial extent. The large pelagic stock of carbon will continue to increase due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, with associated pH decrease. Pelagic carbon stocks and flows are also likely to be significantly affected by increasing acidity and temperature, and circulation changes but the net impact is uncertain. Benthic carbon stocks will be affected by increasing temperature and acidity, and decreasing oxygen concentrations, although the net impact of these interrelated changes on carbon stocks is uncertain and a major knowledge gap. The impact of bottom trawling on benthic carbon stocks is unique amongst the impacts we consider in that it is widespread and also directly manageable, although its net effect on the carbon budget is uncertain. Coastal habitats are vulnerable to sea level rise and are strongly impacted by management decisions. Local, national and regional actions have the potential to protect or enhance carbon storage, but ultimately global governance, via controls on emissions, has the greatest potential to influence the long-term fate of carbon stocks in the northwestern European continental shelf

Carbon on the Northwest European Shelf: Contemporary Budget and Future Influences

© Copyright © 2020 Legge, Johnson, Hicks, Jickells, Diesing, Aldridge, Andrews, Artioli, Bakker, Burrows, Carr, Cripps, Felgate, Fernand, Greenwood, Hartman, Kröger, Lessin, Mahaffey, Mayor, Parker, Queirós, Shutler, Silva, Stahl, Tinker, Underwood, Van Der Molen, Wakelin, Weston and Williamson. A carbon budget for the northwest European continental shelf seas (NWES) was synthesized using available estimates for coastal, pelagic and benthic carbon stocks and flows. Key uncertainties were identified and the effect of future impacts on the carbon budget were assessed. The water of the shelf seas contains between 210 and 230 Tmol of carbon and absorbs between 1.3 and 3.3 Tmol from the atmosphere annually. Off-shelf transport and burial in the sediments account for 60–100 and 0–40% of carbon outputs from the NWES, respectively. Both of these fluxes remain poorly constrained by observations and resolving their magnitudes and relative importance is a key research priority. Pelagic and benthic carbon stocks are dominated by inorganic carbon. Shelf sediments contain the largest stock of carbon, with between 520 and 1600 Tmol stored in the top 0.1 m of the sea bed. Coastal habitats such as salt marshes and mud flats contain large amounts of carbon per unit area but their total carbon stocks are small compared to pelagic and benthic stocks due to their smaller spatial extent. The large pelagic stock of carbon will continue to increase due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, with associated pH decrease. Pelagic carbon stocks and flows are also likely to be significantly affected by increasing acidity and temperature, and circulation changes but the net impact is uncertain. Benthic carbon stocks will be affected by increasing temperature and acidity, and decreasing oxygen concentrations, although the net impact of these interrelated changes on carbon stocks is uncertain and a major knowledge gap. The impact of bottom trawling on benthic carbon stocks is unique amongst the impacts we consider in that it is widespread and also directly manageable, although its net effect on the carbon budget is uncertain. Coastal habitats are vulnerable to sea level rise and are strongly impacted by management decisions. Local, national and regional actions have the potential to protect or enhance carbon storage, but ultimately global governance, via controls on emissions, has the greatest potential to influence the long-term fate of carbon stocks in the northwestern European continental shelf

High-resolution net and gross biological production during a Celtic Sea spring bloom

Shelf seas represent only 10% of the ocean area, but support up to 30% of all oceanic primary production. There are few measurements of shelf-sea biological production at high spatial and temporal resolution in such heterogeneous and physically dynamic systems. Here, we use dissolved oxygen-to-argon (O2/Ar) ratios and oxygen triple isotopes (16O, 17O, 18O) to estimate net and gross biological production in the Celtic Sea during spring 2015. O2/Ar ratios were measured continuously using a shipboard membrane inlet mass spectrometer (MIMS). Additional discrete water samples from CTD hydrocasts were used to measure O2/Ar depth profiles and the δ(17O) and δ(18O) values of dissolved O2. These high-resolution data were combined with wind-speed based gas exchange parameterisations to calculate biologically driven air-sea oxygen fluxes. After correction for disequilibrium terms and diapycnal diffusion, these fluxes yielded estimates of net community (N(O2/Ar)) and gross O2 production (G(17O)). N(O2/Ar) was spatially heterogeneous and showed predominantly autotrophic conditions, with an average of (33±41) mmol m-2 d-1. G(17O) showed high variability between 0 and 424 mmol m-2 d-1. The ratio of N(O2/Ar) to G(17O), ƒ(O2), was (0.18±0.03) corresponding to 0.34±0.06 in carbon equivalents. We also observed rapid temporal changes in N(O2/Ar), e.g. an increase of 80 mmol m-2 d-1 in less than 6 hours during the spring bloom, highlighting the importance of high-resolution biological production measurements. Such measurements will help reconcile the differences between satellite and in situ productivity observations, and improve our understanding of the biological carbon pump