The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2 center dot 5th and 97 center dot 5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62 center dot 6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Generalized peritonitis after spontaneous rupture of pyonephrosis: a case report

Desalegn Markos Shifti,1 Kebebe Bekele2 1St. Paul Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; 2Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Madda Walabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia Background: Peritoneal fistulization of a pyonephrosis is an extremely rare event which invariably leads to generalized peritonitis. This is a very rare case report on generalized peritonitis after spontaneous rupture of pyonephrosis. Case presentation: A 28-year-old male patient from the rural part of Bale zone, Ethiopia, was admitted to Goba Referral Hospital with high-grade fever, diffused abdominal pain and abdominal distension. Initially, he experienced colicky and intermittent pain that made him stay at home for 2-3 days. He then started to develop constant left flank pain which gradually got worse and was associated with urinary frequency of approximately 5–6 times/day, high-grade intermittent fever, chills, rigors and loss of appetite. With the diagnosis of generalized peritonitis, we resuscitated him with two bags of normal saline and one bag of ringer lactate intravenously. During an abdominal ultrasound examination we identified that the left kidney was replaced by an abscess containing sac, and there was a huge intraperitoneal loculated abscess with internal septation and an associated free inter-loop and pelvic echo debris abscess. When we performed an exploratory laparotomy, 1 L-thick abscess from the general peritoneum was aspirated and early fibrinous inter-loop adhesion was identified. In addition, there was a large retroperitoneal cystic abscess containing sac extended from the spleen up to the pelvic brim crossing the midline to the right side and bulged intraperitoneally. Furthermore, a 1.5 cm wide perforation that pour abscess in to peritoneal cavity was found. A total of 4 L of puss was removed from the left kidney. As treatment, since the left kidney lost all function and became a pus-contacting sac, we performed a left-sided nephrectomy and abdominal lavage. Postoperatively, the patient had an uneventful recovery and was discharged from the hospital on the eighth day. We followed him for 6 months, and kidney function tests were normal and he did not develop any complications. Conclusion: This case report highlighted the importance of recognizing the possibility of underlying kidney rupture in a patient with generalized peritonitis. Uretero-pelvic junction obstruction (UPJO) might be the possible cause of pyonephrosis in our case. As a treatment, nephrectomy is a preferable option when the affected kidney is not fully functional and the contralateral kidney is normal. Keywords: pyonephrosis, generalized peritonitis, abscess, perforation, nephrectomy, case repor

Effects of short birth interval on child malnutrition in the Asia-Pacific region: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Child malnutrition remains a significant concern in the Asia-Pacific region, with short birth intervals recognised as a potential risk factor. However, evidence of this association is inconclusive. This study aimed to systematically review the existing evidence and assess the summary effects of short birth interval on child malnutrition in the Asia-Pacific region. Five electronic databases were searched in May 2023 to identify relevant studies reporting the association between short birth interval and child malnutrition, including stunting, wasting, underweight, anaemia and overall malnutrition, in Asia-Pacific region between September 2000 and May 2023. Fixed-effects or random-effects meta-analysis was performed to estimate the summary effects of short birth interval on child malnutrition. Out of 56 studies meeting the inclusion criteria, 48 were included in quantitative synthesis through meta-analysis. We found a slightly higher likelihood of stunting (n = 25, odds ratio [OR] = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97-1.32) and overall malnutrition (n = 3, OR = 2.42; 95% CI: 0.88-6.65) among children born in short birth intervals compared to those with nonshort intervals, although the effect was not statistically significant. However, caution is warranted due to identified heterogeneity across studies. Subgroup analysis demonstrated significant effects of short birth intervals on child malnutrition in national-level studies and studies with larger sample sizes. These findings underscore short birth intervals as a significant contributor to child malnutrition in the Asia-Pacific region. Implementing effective policies and programs is vital to alleviate this burden, ultimately reducing child malnutrition and associated adverse outcomes, including child mortality