Estimating the Risk-Adjusted Capital is an Affair in the Tails

Abstract (Re)insurance companies need to model their liabilities' portfolio to compute the risk-adjusted capital (RAC) needed to support their business. The RAC depends on both the distribution and the dependence functions that are applied among the risks in a portfolio. We investigate the impact of those assumptions on an important concept for (re)insurance industries: the diversification gain. Several copulas are considered in order to focus on the role of dependencies. To be consistent with the frameworks of both Solvency II and the Swiss Solvency Test, we deal with two risk measures: the Value-at-Risk and the expected shortfall. We highlight the behavior of different capital allocation principles according to the dependence assumptions and the choice of the risk measure

Paralarvae of the complex Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis-Dosidicus gigas (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) in the northern limit of the shallow oxygen minimum zone of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean (April 2012)

18 páginas, 10 figuras, 3 tablasThe three-dimensional distribution of the paralarvae of the complex Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis-Dosidicus gigas (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) was analyzed at the northern limit of the shallow oxygen minimum zone in the Eastern Tropical Pacific in April 2012. The upper limit of the oxygen minimum water (∼44 µmol/kg or 1 mL/L) rises from ∼100 m depth in the entrance of the Gulf of California to ∼20 m depth off Cabo Corrientes. Most of the paralarvae of this complex, dominated by D. gigas, were concentrated in the Gulf entrance, between the thermocline (∼20 to ∼50 m depth) and the sea surface, in the warmest (>19°C) oxygenated (>176 µmol/kg) layer. The highest abundance of paralarvae was detected in an anticyclonic eddy (∼120 km diameter and >500 m deep), which contained lower-salinity water (<35 g/kg), consistent with formation in the California Current. Lower paralarvae abundance was recorded further south off Cabo Corrientes, where hypoxic layers were elevated as water shoaled nearshore. Almost no paralarvae were found in the north of the study area beyond the strong salinity front (∼34.8–35.4 g/kg) that bounded the anticyclone. These results showed an affinity of the paralarvae for lower-salinity, oxygenated water, illustrated by the influence of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy and the salinity front in their distribution. Based on this study, it can be concluded that the expansion of the depth range of hypoxic water observed in the Eastern Tropical Pacific may be increasing environmental stress on the paralarvae by vertically restricting their habitat, and so affecting their survivalThis work was made possible thanks to the financial support of SEP-CONACyT (contracts 2014-236864) and by the Instituto Politécnico Nacional (Multidisciplinary Project 2015-0176)Peer reviewe

Anatomical and/or pathological predictors for the “incorrect” classification of red dot markers on wrist radiographs taken following trauma

OBJECTIVE: To establish the prevalence of red dot markers in a sample of wrist radiographs and to identify any anatomical and/or pathological characteristics that predict “incorrect” red dot classification. METHODS: Accident and emergency (A&E) wrist cases from a digital imaging and communications in medicine/digital teaching library were examined for red dot prevalence and for the presence of several anatomical and pathological features. Binary logistic regression analyses were run to establish if any of these features were predictors of incorrect red dot classification. RESULTS: 398 cases were analysed. Red dot was “incorrectly” classified in 8.5% of cases; 6.3% were “false negatives” (“FNs”)and 2.3% false positives (FPs) (one decimal place). Old fractures [odds ratio (OR), 5.070 (1.256–20.471)] and reported degenerative change [OR, 9.870 (2.300–42.359)] were found to predict FPs. Frykman V [OR, 9.500 (1.954–46.179)], Frykman VI [OR, 6.333 (1.205–33.283)] and non-Frykman positive abnormalities [OR, 4.597 (1.264–16.711)] predict “FNs”. Old fractures and Frykman VI were predictive of error at 90% confidence interval (CI); the rest at 95% CI. CONCLUSION: The five predictors of incorrect red dot classification may inform the image interpretation training of radiographers and other professionals to reduce diagnostic error. Verification with larger samples would reinforce these findings. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: All healthcare providers strive to eradicate diagnostic error. By examining specific anatomical and pathological predictors on radiographs for such error, as well as extrinsic factors that may affect reporting accuracy, image interpretation training can focus on these “problem” areas and influence which radiographic abnormality detection schemes are appropriate to implement in A&E departments

Mineral phase analysis of deep-sea hydrothermal particulates by a Raman spectroscopy expert algorithm : toward autonomous in situ experimentation and exploration

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 10 (2009): Q05T05, doi:10.1029/2008GC002314.This paper demonstrates that a Raman spectroscopy, point-counting technique can be used for phase analysis of minerals commonly found in deep-sea hydrothermal plumes, even for minerals with similar chemical compositions. It also presents our robust autonomous identification algorithm and spectral database, both of which were developed specifically for deep-sea hydrothermal studies. The Raman spectroscopy expert algorithm was developed and tested against multicomponent mixtures of minerals relevant to the deep-sea hydrothermal environment. It is intended for autonomous classification where many spectra must be examined with little or no human involvement to increase analytic precision, accuracy, and data volume or to enable in situ measurements and experimentation.Support for J.A.B. was provided through a RIDGE 2000 Postdoctoral Fellowship (NSF OCE-0550331)

Glacial meltwater identification in the Amundsen Sea

Pine Island Ice Shelf, in the Amundsen Sea, is losing mass because of warm ocean waters melting the ice from below. Tracing meltwater pathways from ice shelves is important for identifying the regions most affected by the increased input of this water type. Here, optimum multiparameter analysis is used to deduce glacial meltwater fractions from water mass characteristics (temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen concentrations), collected during a ship-based campaign in the eastern Amundsen Sea in February–March 2014. Using a one-dimensional ocean model, processes such as variability in the characteristics of the source water masses on shelf and biological productivity/respiration are shown to affect the calculated apparent meltwater fractions. These processes can result in a false meltwater signature, creating misleading apparent glacial meltwater pathways. An alternative glacial meltwater calculation is suggested, using a pseudo–Circumpolar Deep Water endpoint and using an artificial increase in uncertainty of the dissolved oxygen measurements. The pseudo–Circumpolar Deep Water characteristics are affected by the under ice shelf bathymetry. The glacial meltwater fractions reveal a pathway for 2014 meltwater leading to the west of Pine Island Ice Shelf, along the coastline

Combined impacts of elevated CO2 and anthropogenic noise on European sea bass

There is another record in ORE for this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32962Ocean acidification (OA) and anthropogenic noise are both known to cause stress and induce physiological and behavioural changes in fish, with consequences for fitness. OA is also predicted to reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb low-frequency sounds produced by human activity. Consequently, anthropogenic noise could propagate further under an increasingly acidic ocean. For the first time, this study investigated the independent and combined impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and anthropogenic noise on the behaviour of a marine fish, the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). In a fully factorial experiment crossing two CO2 levels (current day and elevated) with two noise conditions (ambient and pile driving), D. labrax were exposed to four CO2/noise treatment combinations: 400 µatm/ambient, 1000 µatm/ambient, 400 µatm/pile-driving, and 1000 µatm/pile-driving. Pile-driving noise increased ventilation rate (indicating stress) compared with ambient noise conditions. Elevated CO2 did not alter the ventilation rate response to noise. Furthermore, there was no interaction effect between elevated CO2 and pile-driving noise, suggesting that OA is unlikely to influence startle or ventilatory responses of fish to anthropogenic noise. However, effective management of anthropogenic noise could reduce fish stress, which may improve resilience to future stressors.Natural Environment Research Counci