Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified automatically from existing geriatric assessment data, especially when combined with domain knowledge in a hybrid classification model. Further work is necessary to validate our approach in a controlled prospective setting.</p

Efficacy of Fumaric Acid Esters in the R6/2 and YAC128 Models of Huntington's Disease

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominantly inherited progressive neurodegenerative disease. The exact sequel of events finally resulting in neurodegeneration is only partially understood and there is no established protective treatment so far. Some lines of evidence speak for the contribution of oxidative stress to neuronal tissue damage. The fumaric acid ester dimethylfumarate (DMF) is a new disease modifying therapy currently in phase III studies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. DMF potentially exerts neuroprotective effects via induction of the transcription factor “nuclear factor E2-related factor 2” (Nrf2) and detoxification pathways. Thus, we investigated here the therapeutic efficacy of DMF in R6/2 and YAC128 HD transgenic mice which mimic many aspects of HD and are characterized by an enhanced generation of free radicals in neurons. Treatment with DMF significantly prevented weight loss in R6/2 mice between postnatal days 80–90. At the same time, DMF treatment led to an attenuated motor impairment as measured by the clasping score. Average survival in the DMF group was 100.5 days vs. 94.0 days in the placebo group. In the histological analysis on day 80, DMF treatment resulted in a significant preservation of morphologically intact neurons in the striatum as well as in the motor cortex. DMF treatment resulted in an increased Nrf2 immunoreactivity in neuronal subpopulations, but not in astrocytes. These beneficial effects were corroborated in YAC128 mice which, after one year of DMF treatment, also displayed reduced dyskinesia as well as a preservation of neurons. In conclusion, DMF may exert beneficial effects in mouse models of HD. Given its excellent side effect profile, further studies with DMF as new therapeutic approach in HD and other neurodegenerative diseases are warranted

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9

BACKGROUND: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. METHODS: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. RESULTS: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate

PCSK9 genetic variants and risk of type 2 diabetes: a mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND: Statin treatment and variants in the gene encoding HMG-CoA reductase are associated with reductions in both the concentration of LDL cholesterol and the risk of coronary heart disease, but also with modest hyperglycaemia, increased bodyweight, and modestly increased risk of type 2 diabetes, which in no way offsets their substantial benefits. We sought to investigate the associations of LDL cholesterol-lowering PCSK9 variants with type 2 diabetes and related biomarkers to gauge the likely effects of PCSK9 inhibitors on diabetes risk. METHODS: In this mendelian randomisation study, we used data from cohort studies, randomised controlled trials, case control studies, and genetic consortia to estimate associations of PCSK9 genetic variants with LDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, HbA1c, fasting insulin, bodyweight, waist-to-hip ratio, BMI, and risk of type 2 diabetes, using a standardised analysis plan, meta-analyses, and weighted gene-centric scores. FINDINGS: Data were available for more than 550 000 individuals and 51 623 cases of type 2 diabetes. Combined analyses of four independent PCSK9 variants (rs11583680, rs11591147, rs2479409, and rs11206510) scaled to 1 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol showed associations with increased fasting glucose (0·09 mmol/L, 95% CI 0·02 to 0·15), bodyweight (1·03 kg, 0·24 to 1·82), waist-to-hip ratio (0·006, 0·003 to 0·010), and an odds ratio for type diabetes of 1·29 (1·11 to 1·50). Based on the collected data, we did not identify associations with HbA1c (0·03%, -0·01 to 0·08), fasting insulin (0·00%, -0·06 to 0·07), and BMI (0·11 kg/m(2), -0·09 to 0·30). INTERPRETATION: PCSK9 variants associated with lower LDL cholesterol were also associated with circulating higher fasting glucose concentration, bodyweight, and waist-to-hip ratio, and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In trials of PCSK9 inhibitor drugs, investigators should carefully assess these safety outcomes and quantify the risks and benefits of PCSK9 inhibitor treatment, as was previously done for statins. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, and University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UCLH) National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre.This work was supported by a British Heart Foundation Programme Grant (RG/10/12/28456). AFS is funded by University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UCLH) National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC10200) and by a UCL springboard population science fellowship. FWA is supported by a Dekker scholarship-Junior Staff Member 2014T001–Netherlands Heart Foundation and UCL Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. ADH is an NIHR Senior Investigator. Funding information and acknowledgments for studies contributing data are reported in the appendix

Comprehensive and Integrated Genomic Characterization of Adult Soft Tissue Sarcomas

Summary Sarcomas are a broad family of mesenchymal malignancies exhibiting remarkable histologic diversity. We describe the multi-platform molecular landscape of 206 adult soft tissue sarcomas representing 6 major types. Along with novel insights into the biology of individual sarcoma types, we report three overarching findings: (1) unlike most epithelial malignancies, these sarcomas (excepting synovial sarcoma) are characterized predominantly by copy-number changes, with low mutational loads and only a few genes (TP53, ATRX, RB1) highly recurrently mutated across sarcoma types; (2) within sarcoma types, genomic and regulomic diversity of driver pathways defines molecular subtypes associated with patient outcome; and (3) the immune microenvironment, inferred from DNA methylation and mRNA profiles, associates with outcome and may inform clinical trials of immune checkpoint inhibitors. Overall, this large-scale analysis reveals previously unappreciated sarcoma-type-specific changes in copy number, methylation, RNA, and protein, providing insights into refining sarcoma therapy and relationships to other cancer types

Integrated genomic characterization of oesophageal carcinoma

Oesophageal cancers are prominent worldwide; however, there are few targeted therapies and survival rates for these cancers remain dismal. Here we performed a comprehensive molecular analysis of 164 carcinomas of the oesophagus derived from Western and Eastern populations. Beyond known histopathological and epidemiologic distinctions, molecular features differentiated oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas from oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas resembled squamous carcinomas of other organs more than they did oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Our analyses identified three molecular subclasses of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, but none showed evidence for an aetiological role of human papillomavirus. Squamous cell carcinomas showed frequent genomic amplifications of CCND1 and SOX2 and/or TP63, whereas ERBB2, VEGFA and GATA4 and GATA6 were more commonly amplified in adenocarcinomas. Oesophageal adenocarcinomas strongly resembled the chromosomally unstable variant of gastric adenocarcinoma, suggesting that these cancers could be considered a single disease entity. However, some molecular features, including DNA hypermethylation, occurred disproportionally in oesophageal adenocarcinomas. These data provide a framework to facilitate more rational categorization of these tumours and a foundation for new therapies.ope

Measurement of the branching fraction for B−→D0K∗−B^- \to D^0 K^{*-}

We present a measurement of the branching fraction for the decay B- --> D0 K*- using a sample of approximately 86 million BBbar pairs collected by the BaBar detector from e+e- collisions near the Y(4S) resonance. The D0 is detected through its decays to K- pi+, K- pi+ pi0 and K- pi+ pi- pi+, and the K*- through its decay to K0S pi-. We measure the branching fraction to be B.F.(B- --> D0 K*-)= (6.3 +/- 0.7(stat.) +/- 0.5(syst.)) x 10^{-4}

Observation of a significant excess of π0π0\pi^{0}\pi^{0} events in B meson decays

We present an observation of the decay $B^{0} \to \pi^{0} \pi^{0}$ based on a sample of 124 million $B\bar{B}$ pairs recorded by the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy $B$ Factory at SLAC. We observe $46 \pm 13 \pm 3$ events, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic, corresponding to a significance of 4.2 standard deviations including systematic uncertainties. We measure the branching fraction \BR(B^{0} \to \pi^{0} \pi^{0}) = (2.1 \pm 0.6 \pm 0.3) \times 10^{-6}, averaged over $B^{0}$ and $\bar{B}^{0}$ decays

Observation of the Decay B=> J/psi eta K and Search for X(3872)=> J/psi eta

We report the observation of the $B$ meson decay $B^\pm\to J/\psi \eta K^\pm$ and evidence for the decay $B^0\to J/\psi \eta K^0_S$, using {90} million $BBbar$ events collected at the \ensuremath{\Upsilon{(4S)}}\xspace resonance with the $BaBar$ detector at the PEP-II $e^+ e^-$ asymmetric-energy storage ring. We obtain branching fractions of $\cal{B}$$(B^\pm\to J/\psi \eta K^{\pm}$)=$(10.8\pm 2.3(\rm{stat.})\pm 2.4(\rm{syst.}))\times 10^{-5}$ and $\cal{B}$$(B^0\to J/\psi\eta K_{\rm{S}}^{0}$)=$(8.4\pm 2.6(\rm{stat.})\pm 2.7(\rm{syst.}))\times 10^{-5}$. We search for the new narrow mass state, the X(3872), recently reported by the Belle Collaboration, in the decay B^\pm\to X(3872)K^\pm, X(3872)\to \jpsi \eta and determine an upper limit of $\cal{B}$(B^\pm \to X(3872) K^\pm \to \jpsi \eta K^\pm) $<7.7\times 10^{-6}$ at 90% C.L.Comment: 7 pages and two figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett

Measurement of the Ratio of b Quark Production Cross Sections in Antiproton-Proton Collisions at 630 GeV and 1800 GeV

We report a measurement of the ratio of the bottom quark production cross section in antiproton-proton collisions at 630 GeV to 1800 GeV using bottom quarks with transverse momenta greater than 10.75 GeV identified through their semileptonic decays and long lifetimes. The measured ratio sigma(630)/sigma(1800) = 0.171 +/- .024 +/- .012 is in good agreement with next-to-leading order (NLO) quantum chromodynamics (QCD)