Where did the votes go? Reassessing American party realignments via vote transfers between major parties from 1860 to 2008

Political scientists have long debated theories of electoral party realignments. In this paper, we apply ecological inference methods to statistically analyze the transfer of votes within counties in US presidential elections since 1860. Through this analysis we are able to identify the major periods of party realignment in US history and the counties where these shifts took place. As a result, we are able to provide new insights into American electoral history, and provide strong evidence that the 2008 presidential election did not represent a realigning election as the phrase is generally understood

Cycles in politics : wavelet analysis of political time-series

Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time-series. Controversies about cycles, however, tend to revolve about an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address: the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time-series. This has led to two main consequences. On the one hand, proponents of cyclical theories have often dismissed established statistical techniques. On the other hand, proponents of established techniques have dismissed the possibility of cycles without fixed periodicity. Wavelets allow the detection of transient and coexisting cycles and structural breaks in periodicity. In this paper, we present the tools of wavelet analysis and apply them to the study to two lingering puzzles in the political science literature: the existence to cycles in election returns in the United States and in the severity of major power wars.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Assessing Observer Stations for Cislunar Space Domain Awareness

With renewed worldwide interest in cislunar space, the need for reliable domain awareness in that extended region of space is clear. This investigation quantifies the suitability of several possible stations for observer satellites in cislunar space by calculating the specific irradiance each would observe as they track satellites in various realistic lunar free-return trajectories across a decade, using reflected sunlight. This investigation includes one class of free return trajectories for target satellites, eleven distinct observer stations, and three different metrics for comparing the effectiveness of each observer station or combination of observer stations for sensing targets using reflected sunlight. The analysis showed that observer satellites in most, but not all, observer stations would be more effective than in low Earth orbit, and certain combinations of observer stations were significantly more effective. The exact ranking of least to most effective varied depending on the metric used