Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80

The study is divided into four broad parts, beginning with an exploratory analysis of the data on expost returns on corporate equities and bonds for the 1926-80 period. In Part 2, we estimate the relationships between one-month expost returns on corporate bonds and equities andvariations in Treasury bill rates, economic activity, and other variables.The major other variable is unanticipated changes in new issue coupon rates on long-term Treasury bonds. Parts 3 and 4 contain econometric investigations of the determinants of one-month Treasury bill rates and unanticipated changes in long-term Treasury coupon rates, respectively. These parts extend the analysis of Part 2 by explaining variables that determine expost corporate bond and equity returns and provide evidence on the determination of new-issue yields on short- and long-term default-free debt. The last three parts ofthe study report econometric results based on data from the 1953-83 period.A number of important issues are addressed in the econometric parts of the paper. These include: the validity of the Modigliani-Cohn valuation-error hypothesis, the measurement of Merton's "excess return on the market", the relationship between real new-issue debt rates and real economic activity, and the usefulness of the Livingston survey data in explaining financial returns.

The Impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Operations

The Federal Reserve Bank has the ability to change the money supply and to shape the expectations of market participants through their open market operations. These operations may amount to 20% of the day's volume and are concentrated during the half hour known as `Fed Time'. Using previously unavailable data on open market operations, our paper provides the first comprehensive examination of the impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's trading on both fixed income instruments and foreign currencies. Our results detail a dramatic increase in volatility during Fed Time. Surprisingly, the Fed Time volatility is higher on days when open market operations are absent. In addition, little systematic differences in market impact are observed for reserve-draining versus reserve-adding operations. These results suggest that the financial markets correctly anticipate the purpose of open market operations but are unable to forecast the timing of the operations.

Constraints on Supersymmetric Dark Matter for Heavy Scalar Superpartners

We study the constraints on neutralino dark matter in minimal low energy supersymmetry models and the case of heavy lepton and quark scalar superpartners. For values of the Higgsino and gaugino mass parameters of the order of the weak scale, direct detection experiments are already putting strong bounds on models in which the dominant interactions between the dark matter candidates and nuclei are governed by Higgs boson exchange processes, particularly for positive values of the Higgsino mass parameter mu. For negative values of mu, there can be destructive interference between the amplitudes associated with the exchange of the standard CP-even Higgs boson and the exchange of the non-standard one. This leads to specific regions of parameter space which are consistent with the current experimental constraints and a thermal origin of the observed relic density. In this article we study the current experimental constraints on these scenarios, as well as the future experimental probes, using a combination of direct and indirect dark matter detection and heavy Higgs and electroweakino searches at hadron colliders.Comment: 32 pages, 13 figure

Male Clients of Male Sex Workers in China: An Ignored High-Risk Population.

BackgroundThere is a high prevalence of HIV/syphilis among male sex workers, but no formal study has ever been conducted focusing on male clients of male sex workers (MCM). A detailed investigation was thus called for, to determine the burden and sociobehavioral determinants of HIV and syphilis among these MCM in China.MethodsAs part of a multicenter cross-sectional study, using respondent-driven and snowball sampling, 2958 consenting adult men who have sex with men (MSM) were recruited, interviewed, and tested for HIV and syphilis between 2008 and 2009. The distributions of sociodemographic characteristics, risk behaviors, and HIV/syphilis prevalence were determined and compared between MCM and other MSM.ResultsAmong recruited MSM, 5.0% (n = 148) were MCM. HIV prevalences for MCM and other MSM were 7.4% and 7.7%, whereas 18.9% and 14.0% were positive for syphilis, respectively. Condomless anal intercourse (CAI) was reported by 59.5% of MCM and 48.2% of MSM. Multiple logistic regression revealed that compared with other MSM, MCM were more likely to have less education [for ≤ elementary level, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.13, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.42 to 6.90], higher income (for >500 US Dollars per month, aOR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.53 to 5.77), more often found partners at parks/restrooms (aOR = 4.01, 95% CI: 2.34 to 6.85), reported CAI (aOR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.05 to 2.10), reported a larger sexual network (for ≥ 10, aOR = 2.70, 95% CI: 1.44 to 5.07), and higher odds of syphilis (aOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.00 to 2.38).ConclusionsThe greater frequency of risk behaviors and high prevalence of HIV and syphilis indicated that HIV/syphilis prevention programs in China need to pay special attention to MCM as a distinct subgroup, which was completely ignored until date

Dense and accurate motion and strain estimation in high resolution speckle images using an image-adaptive approach

Digital image processing methods represent a viable and well acknowledged alternative to strain gauges and interferometric techniques for determining full-field displacements and strains in materials under stress. This paper presents an image adaptive technique for dense motion and strain estimation using high-resolution speckle images that show the analyzed material in its original and deformed states. The algorithm starts by dividing the speckle image showing the original state into irregular cells taking into consideration both spatial and gradient image information present. Subsequently the Newton-Raphson digital image correlation technique is applied to calculate the corresponding motion for each cell. Adaptive spatial regularization in the form of the Geman-McClure robust spatial estimator is employed to increase the spatial consistency of the motion components of a cell with respect to the components of neighbouring cells. To obtain the final strain information, local least-squares fitting using a linear displacement model is performed on the horizontal and vertical displacement fields. To evaluate the presented image partitioning and strain estimation techniques two numerical and two real experiments are employed. The numerical experiments simulate the deformation of a specimen with constant strain across the surface as well as small rigid-body rotations present while real experiments consist specimens that undergo uniaxial stress. The results indicate very good accuracy of the recovered strains as well as better rotation insensitivity compared to classical techniques

The Mesozoic along-strike tectono-metamorphic segmentation of Longmen Shan (eastern Tibetan plateau)

The Longmen Shan belt (eastern border of the Tibetan plateau) constitutes a tectonically active region as demonstrated by the occurrence of the unexpected 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquakes in the central and southern parts of the belt respectively. These events revealed the necessity of a better understanding of the long‐term geological evolution of the belt and its effect on the present dynamics and crustal structure. New structural and thermobarometric data offer a comprehensive dataset of the paleo‐temperatures across the belt and P‐T estimates for low‐grade metamorphic domains. In the central Longmen Shan, two metamorphic jumps of 150‐200°C, 5‐6 kbar and ~50 °C, 3‐5 kbar acquired during the Early Mesozoic are observed across the Wenchuan and Beichuan faults respectively, attesting to their thrusting movement and unrevealing a major decollement between the allochtonous Songpan‐Garze metasedimentary cover (at T > 500°C) and the autochtonous units and the basement (T < 400°C). In the southern Longmen Shan, the only greenschist‐facies metamorphism is observed both in the basement (360 ± 30°C, 6 ± 2 kbar) and in the metasedimentary cover (350 ± 30°C, 3 ± 1 kbar). Peak conditions were reached at c. 80‐60 Ma in the basement and c. 55‐33 Ma in the cover, c. 50 Ma after the greenschist‐facies metamorphic overprint observed in the central Longmen Shan (c. 150‐120 Ma). This along‐strike metamorphic segmentation coincides well with the present fault segmentation and reveals that the central and southern Longmen Shan experienced different tectono‐metamorphic histories since the Mesozoic

The calcilytic agent NPS 2143 rectifies hypocalcemia in a mouse model with an activating calcium-sensing-receptor (CaSR) mutation:relevance to autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 (ADH1)

Autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 (ADH1) is caused by germline gain-of-function mutations of the calcium-sensing receptor (CaSR) and may lead to symptomatic hypocalcemia, inappropriately low serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) concentrations and hypercalciuria. Negative allosteric CaSR modulators, known as calcilytics, have been shown to normalise the gain-of-function associated with ADH-causing CaSR mutations in vitro and represent a potential targeted therapy for ADH1. However, the effectiveness of calcilytic drugs for the treatment of ADH1-associated hypocalcemia remains to be established. We have investigated NPS 2143, a calcilytic compound, for the treatment of ADH1 by in vitro and in vivo studies involving a mouse model, known as Nuf, which harbors a gain-of-function CaSR mutation, Leu723Gln. Wild-type (Leu723) and Nuf mutant (Gln723) CaSRs were expressed in HEK293 cells and the effect of NPS 2143 on their intracellular calcium responses determined by flow cytometry. NPS 2143 was also administered as a single intraperitoneal bolus to wild-type and Nuf mice and plasma concentrations of calcium and PTH, and urinary calcium excretion measured. In vitro administration of NPS 2143 decreased the intracellular calcium responses of HEK293 cells expressing the mutant Gln723 CaSR in a dose-dependent manner, thereby rectifying the gain-of-function associated with the Nuf mouse CaSR mutation. Intraperitoneal injection of NPS 2143 in Nuf mice led to significant increases in plasma calcium and PTH without elevating urinary calcium excretion. These studies of a mouse model with an activating CaSR mutation demonstrate NPS 2143 to normalize the gain-of-function causing ADH1, and improve the hypocalcemia associated with this disorder

Local modes, phonons, and mass transport in solid 4^4He

We propose a model to treat the local motion of atoms in solid $^{4}$He as a local mode. In this model, the solid is assumed to be described by the Self Consistent Harmonic approximation, combined with an array of local modes. We show that in the bcc phase the atomic local motion is highly directional and correlated, while in the hcp phase there is no such correlation. The correlated motion in the bcc phase leads to a strong hybridization of the local modes with the T$_{1}(110)$ phonon branch, which becomes much softer than that obtained through a Self Consistent Harmonic calculation, in agreement with experiment. In addition we predict a high energy excitation branch which is important for self-diffusion. Both the hybridization and the presence of a high energy branch are a consequence of the correlation, and appear only in the bcc phase. We suggest that the local modes can play the role in mass transport usually attributed to point defects (vacancies). Our approach offers a more overall consistent picture than obtained using vacancies as the predominant point defect. In particular, we show that our approach resolves the long standing controversy regarding the contribution of point defects to the specific heat of solid $^{4}$He.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figure

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS

Selenoprotein gene nomenclature

The human genome contains 25 genes coding for selenocysteine-containing proteins (selenoproteins). These proteins are involved in a variety of functions, most notably redox homeostasis. Selenoprotein enzymes with known functions are designated according to these functions: TXNRD1, TXNRD2, and TXNRD3 (thioredoxin reductases), GPX1, GPX2, GPX3, GPX4 and GPX6 (glutathione peroxidases), DIO1, DIO2, and DIO3 (iodothyronine deiodinases), MSRB1 (methionine-R-sulfoxide reductase 1) and SEPHS2 (selenophosphate synthetase 2). Selenoproteins without known functions have traditionally been denoted by SEL or SEP symbols. However, these symbols are sometimes ambiguous and conflict with the approved nomenclature for several other genes. Therefore, there is a need to implement a rational and coherent nomenclature system for selenoprotein-encoding genes. Our solution is to use the root symbol SELENO followed by a letter. This nomenclature applies to SELENOF (selenoprotein F, the 15 kDa selenoprotein, SEP15), SELENOH (selenoprotein H, SELH, C11orf31), SELENOI (selenoprotein I, SELI, EPT1), SELENOK (selenoprotein K, SELK), SELENOM (selenoprotein M, SELM), SELENON (selenoprotein N, SEPN1, SELN), SELENOO (selenoprotein O, SELO), SELENOP (selenoprotein P, SeP, SEPP1, SELP), SELENOS (selenoprotein S, SELS, SEPS1, VIMP), SELENOT (selenoprotein T, SELT), SELENOV (selenoprotein V, SELV) and SELENOW (selenoprotein W, SELW, SEPW1). This system, approved by the HUGO Gene Nomenclature Committee, also resolves conflicting, missing and ambiguous designations for selenoprotein genes and is applicable to selenoproteins across vertebrates