Were The Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?

During the 1990’s several fixed or quasi-fixed exchange rate systems collapsed. Currency crises have happened in both developed and emerging countries so it is necessary to forecast and avoid them. However, financial market crises have been extremely di¢cult to forecast. Economic agents’ expectations are non-observable variables that cannot be ignored in our models. In addition, if we want to study the European case during the 1990’s, the censored disposition of the exchange rate cannot be ignored either. We propose a discrete time target zones model where these aspects are taken into account. It will be tested in a peseta/deutsche mark exchange rate framework, from June 1989 to December 1998. The results indicate differences between before and after the shift in band widths in August 1993.Target Zones, Currency Crises, Mean Reversion, Realignment Probability

An update on hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease is a major public health issue globally and the risk of cancer (including HCC) is greater in patients on long-term dialysis and kidney transplant compared with the general population. According to an international study on 831,804 patients on long-term dialysis, the standardized incidence ratio for liver cancer was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0–1.4) and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3–1.7) in European and USA cohorts, respectively. It appears that important predictors of HCC in dialysis population are hepatotropic viruses (HBV and HCV) and cirrhosis. 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates are lower in HCC patients on long-term dialysis than those with HCC and intact kidneys. NAFLD is a metabolic disease with increasing prevalence worldwide and recent evidence shows that it is an important cause of liver-related and extra liver-related diseases (including HCC and CKD, respectively). Some longitudinal studies have shown that patients with chronic hepatitis B are aging and the frequency of comorbidities (such as HCC and CKD) is increasing over time in these patients; it has been suggested to connect these patients to an appropriate care earlier. Antiviral therapy of HBV and HCV plays a pivotal role in the management of HCC in CKD and some combinations of DAAs (elbasvir/grazoprevir, glecaprevir/pibrentasvir, sofosbuvir-based regimens) are now available for HCV positive patients and advanced chronic kidney disease. The interventional management of HCC includes liver resection. Some ablative techniques have been suggested for HCC in CKD patients who are not appropriate candidates to surgery. Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization has been proposed for HCC in patients who are not candidates to liver surgery due to comorbidities. The gold standard for early-stage HCC in patients with chronic liver disease and/or cirrhosis is still liver transplant.Fil: Fabrizi, Fabrizio. No especifíca;Fil: Cerutti, Roberta. No especifíca;Fil: Alfieri, Carlo M.. Università degli Studi di Milano; ItaliaFil: Ridruejo, Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. CEMIC-CONICET. Centro de Educaciones Médicas e Investigaciones Clínicas "Norberto Quirno". CEMIC-CONICET; Argentin

Serious liver injury induced by Nimesulide: an international collaboration study reporting 57 cases

Nimesulide is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug still marketed in many countries. We aim to analyze the clinical phenotype, outcome, and histological features of nimesulide-induced liver injury (nimesulide-DILI). We analyzed 57 cases recruited from the Spanish and LATIN DILI registries. Causality was assessed by the RUCAM scale. Mean age of the whole case series was 59 years (86% women) with a median time to onset of 40 days. A total of 46 patients (81%) were jaundiced. Nimesulide-DILI pattern was hepatocellular in 38 (67%), mixed in 12 (21%), and cholestatic in 7 (12%) cases. Transaminases were elevated with a mean of nearly 20-fold the upper limit of normality (ULN), while alkaline phosphatase showed a 2-fold mean elevation above ULN. Total bilirubin showed a mean elevation of 13-fold the ULN. Liver histology was obtained in 14 cases (25%), most of them with a hepatocellular pattern. Median time to recovery was 60 days. Overall, 12 patients (21%) developed acute liver failure (ALF), five (8.8%) died, three underwent liver transplantation (5.3%), and the remaining four resolved. Latency was ≤15 days in 12 patients (21%) and one patient developed ALF within seven days from treatment initiation. Increased total bilirubin and aspartate transaminase levels were independently associated with the development of ALF. In summary, nimesulide-DILI affects mainly women and presents typically with a hepatocellular pattern. It is associated with ALF and death in a high proportion of patients. Shorter (≤15 days) duration of therapy does not prevent serious nimesulide hepatotoxicity, making its risk/benefit ratio clearly unfavorable.The present study has been supported by grants of Instituto de Salud Carlos III cofounded by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional - FEDER (contract numbers: PI18-00901; PI 18/01804; PT20/00127) and Agencia Española del Medicamento. Plataforma ISCiii de Investigación Clínica and CIBERehd are funded by ISCIII. MRD holds a Joan Rodes (JR16/00015)/Acción B clinicos investigadores (B-0002-2019) research contract from ISCIII and Consejería de Salud de Andalucía, IAA holds a Sara Borrell research contract from the National Health System, ISCIII (CD 20/00083)

Outcome of COVID-19 in Patients With Autoimmune Hepatitis: An International Multicenter Study

Background and Aims: Data regarding outcome of COVID-19 in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are lacking. Approach and Results: We performed a retrospective study on patients with AIH and COVID-19 from 34 centers in Europe and the Americas. We analyzed factors associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, defined as the need for mechanical ventilation, intensive care admission, and/or death. The outcomes of patients with AIH were compared to a propensity score?matched cohort of patients without AIH but with chronic liver diseases (CLD) and COVID-19. The frequency and clinical significance of new-onset liver injury (alanine aminotransferase > 2 × the upper limit of normal) during COVID-19 was also evaluated. We included 110 patients with AIH (80% female) with a median age of 49 (range, 18-85) years at COVID-19 diagnosis. New-onset liver injury was observed in 37.1% (33/89) of the patients. Use of antivirals was associated with liver injury (P = 0.041; OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.05-10.78), while continued immunosuppression during COVID-19 was associated with a lower rate of liver injury (P = 0.009; OR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.09-0.71). The rates of severe COVID-19 (15.5% versus 20.2%, P = 0.231) and all-cause mortality (10% versus 11.5%, P = 0.852) were not different between AIH and non-AIH CLD. Cirrhosis was an independent predictor of severe COVID-19 in patients with AIH (P < 0.001; OR, 17.46; 95% CI, 4.22-72.13). Continuation of immunosuppression or presence of liver injury during COVID-19 was not associated with severe COVID-19. Conclusions: This international, multicenter study reveals that patients with AIH were not at risk for worse outcomes with COVID-19 than other causes of CLD. Cirrhosis was the strongest predictor for severe COVID-19 in patients with AIH. Maintenance of immunosuppression during COVID-19 was not associated with increased risk for severe COVID-19 but did lower the risk for new-onset liver injury during COVID-19.Fil: Efe, Cumali. Harran University Hospital; TurquíaFil: Dhanasekaran, Renumathy. University of Stanford; Estados UnidosFil: Lammert, Craig. University School of Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Ebik, Berat. Gazi Yaşargil Education and Research Hospital; TurquíaFil: Higuera de la Tijera, Fatima. Hospital General de México; MéxicoFil: Aloman, Costica. Rush University Medical Center; Estados UnidosFil: Rıza Calışkan, Ali. Adıyaman University; TurquíaFil: Peralta, Mirta. Latin American Liver Research Educational And Awareness Network; Argentina. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Infecciosas "Dr. Francisco Javier Muñiz"; ArgentinaFil: Gerussi, Alessio. University of Milano Bicocca; Italia. San Gerardo Hospital; ItaliaFil: Massoumi, Hatef. Montefiore Medical Center; Estados UnidosFil: Catana, Andreea M.. Harvard Medical School; Estados UnidosFil: Torgutalp, Murat. Universitätsmedizin Berlin; AlemaniaFil: Purnak, Tugrul. McGovern Medical School; Estados UnidosFil: Rigamonti, Cristina. Azienda Ospedaliera Maggiore Della Carita Di Novara; Italia. Università del Piemonte Orientale; ItaliaFil: Gomez Aldana, Andres Jose. Universidad de los Andes; ColombiaFil: Khakoo, Nidah. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Kacmaz, Hüseyin. Adıyaman University; TurquíaFil: Nazal, Leyla. Clínica Las Condes; ChileFil: Frager, Shalom. Montefiore Medical Center; Estados UnidosFil: Demir, Nurhan. Haseki Training and Research Hospita; TurquíaFil: Irak, Kader. SBU Kanuni Sultan Süleyman Training and Research Hospital; TurquíaFil: Ellik, Zeynep Melekoğlu. Ankara University Medical Faculty; TurquíaFil: Balaban, Yasemin. Hacettepe University; TurquíaFil: Atay, Kadri. Mardin State Hospital; TurquíaFil: Eren, Fatih. Ordu State Hospital; TurquíaFil: Cristoferi, Laura. University of Milano Bicocca; Italia. San Gerardo Hospital; ItaliaFil: Batibay, Ersin. Harran University Hospital; TurquíaFil: Urzua, Álvaro. Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Medicina.; ChileFil: Snijders, Romee. Radboud University Medical Center; Países BajosFil: Ridruejo, Ezequiel. Latin American Liver Research Educational and Awareness Network; Argentina. Cerrahpaşa School of Medicine; Turquía. Centro de Educación Médica e Investigaciones Clínicas "Norberto Quirno"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Effects of immunosuppressive drugs on COVID-19 severity in patients with autoimmune hepatitis

Background: We investigated associations between baseline use of immunosuppressive drugs and severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). Patients and methods: Data of AIH patients with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 were retrospectively collected from 15 countries. The outcomes of AIH patients who were on immunosuppression at the time of COVID-19 were compared to patients who were not on AIH medication. The clinical courses of COVID-19 were classified as (i)-no hospitalization, (ii)-hospitalization without oxygen supplementation, (iii)-hospitalization with oxygen supplementation by nasal cannula or mask, (iv)-intensive care unit (ICU) admission with non-invasive mechanical ventilation, (v)-ICU admission with invasive mechanical ventilation or (vi)-death and analysed using ordinal logistic regression. Results: We included 254 AIH patients (79.5%, female) with a median age of 50 (range, 17-85) years. At the onset of COVID-19, 234 patients (92.1%) were on treatment with glucocorticoids (n = 156), thiopurines (n = 151), mycophenolate mofetil (n = 22) or tacrolimus (n = 16), alone or in combinations. Overall, 94 (37%) patients were hospitalized and 18 (7.1%) patients died. Use of systemic glucocorticoids (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.73, 95% CI 1.12-25.89) and thiopurines (aOR 4.78, 95% CI 1.33-23.50) for AIH was associated with worse COVID-19 severity, after adjusting for age-sex, comorbidities and presence of cirrhosis. Baseline treatment with mycophenolate mofetil (aOR 3.56, 95% CI 0.76-20.56) and tacrolimus (aOR 4.09, 95% CI 0.69-27.00) were also associated with more severe COVID-19 courses in a smaller subset of treated patients. Conclusion: Baseline treatment with systemic glucocorticoids or thiopurines prior to the onset of COVID-19 was significantly associated with COVID-19 severity in patients with AIH.Fil: Efe, Cumali. Harran University Hospita; TurquíaFil: Lammert, Craig. University School of Medicine Indianapolis; Estados UnidosFil: Taşçılar, Koray. Universitat Erlangen-Nuremberg; AlemaniaFil: Dhanasekaran, Renumathy. University of Stanford; Estados UnidosFil: Ebik, Berat. Gazi Yasargil Education And Research Hospital; TurquíaFil: Higuera de la Tijera, Fatima. Hospital General de México; MéxicoFil: Calışkan, Ali R.. No especifíca;Fil: Peralta, Mirta. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Infecciosas "Dr. Francisco Javier Muñiz"; ArgentinaFil: Gerussi, Alessio. Università degli Studi di Milano; ItaliaFil: Massoumi, Hatef. No especifíca;Fil: Catana, Andreea M.. Harvard Medical School; Estados UnidosFil: Purnak, Tugrul. University of Texas; Estados UnidosFil: Rigamonti, Cristina. Università del Piemonte Orientale ; ItaliaFil: Aldana, Andres J. G.. Fundacion Santa Fe de Bogota; ColombiaFil: Khakoo, Nidah. Miami University; Estados UnidosFil: Nazal, Leyla. Clinica Las Condes; ChileFil: Frager, Shalom. Montefiore Medical Center; Estados UnidosFil: Demir, Nurhan. Haseki Training And Research Hospital; TurquíaFil: Irak, Kader. Kanuni Sultan Suleyman Training And Research Hospital; TurquíaFil: Melekoğlu Ellik, Zeynep. Ankara University Medical Faculty; TurquíaFil: Kacmaz, Hüseyin. Adıyaman University; TurquíaFil: Balaban, Yasemin. Hacettepe University; TurquíaFil: Atay, Kadri. No especifíca;Fil: Eren, Fatih. No especifíca;Fil: Alvares da-Silva, Mario R.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Cristoferi, Laura. Università degli Studi di Milano; ItaliaFil: Urzua, Álvaro. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Eşkazan, Tuğçe. Cerrahpaşa School of Medicine; TurquíaFil: Magro, Bianca. No especifíca;Fil: Snijders, Romee. No especifíca;Fil: Barutçu, Sezgin. No especifíca;Fil: Lytvyak, Ellina. University of Alberta; CanadáFil: Zazueta, Godolfino M.. Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubiran; MéxicoFil: Demirezer Bolat, Aylin. Ankara City Hospital; TurquíaFil: Aydın, Mesut. Van Yuzuncu Yil University; TurquíaFil: Amorós Martín, Alexandra Noemí. No especifíca;Fil: De Martin, Eleonora. No especifíca;Fil: Ekin, Nazım. No especifíca;Fil: Yıldırım, Sümeyra. No especifíca;Fil: Yavuz, Ahmet. No especifíca;Fil: Bıyık, Murat. Necmettin Erbakan University; TurquíaFil: Narro, Graciela C.. Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubiran; MéxicoFil: Bıyık, Murat. Uludag University; TurquíaFil: Kıyıcı, Murat. No especifíca;Fil: Kahramanoğlu Aksoy, Evrim. No especifíca;Fil: Vincent, Maria. No especifíca;Fil: Carr, Rotonya M.. University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Günşar, Fulya. No especifíca;Fil: Reyes, Eira C.. Hepatology Unit. Hospital Militar Central de México; MéxicoFil: Harputluoğlu, Murat. Inönü University School of Medicine; TurquíaFil: Aloman, Costica. Rush University Medical Center; Estados UnidosFil: Gatselis, Nikolaos K.. University Hospital Of Larissa; GreciaFil: Üstündağ, Yücel. No especifíca;Fil: Brahm, Javier. Clinica Las Condes; ChileFil: Vargas, Nataly C. E.. Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo; PerúFil: Güzelbulut, Fatih. No especifíca;Fil: Garcia, Sandro R.. Hospital Iv Víctor Lazarte Echegaray; PerúFil: Aguirre, Jonathan. Hospital Angeles del Pedregal; MéxicoFil: Anders, Margarita. Hospital Alemán; ArgentinaFil: Ratusnu, Natalia. Hospital Regional de Ushuaia; ArgentinaFil: Hatemi, Ibrahim. No especifíca;Fil: Mendizabal, Manuel. Universidad Austral; ArgentinaFil: Floreani, Annarosa. Università di Padova; ItaliaFil: Fagiuoli, Stefano. No especifíca;Fil: Silva, Marcelo. Universidad Austral; ArgentinaFil: Idilman, Ramazan. No especifíca;Fil: Satapathy, Sanjaya K.. No especifíca;Fil: Silveira, Marina. University of Yale. School of Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Drenth, Joost P. H.. No especifíca;Fil: Dalekos, George N.. No especifíca;Fil: N.Assis, David. University of Yale. School of Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Björnsson, Einar. No especifíca;Fil: Boyer, James L.. University of Yale. School of Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Yoshida, Eric M.. University of British Columbia; CanadáFil: Invernizzi, Pietro. Università degli Studi di Milano; ItaliaFil: Levy, Cynthia. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Montano Loza, Aldo J.. University of Alberta; CanadáFil: Schiano, Thomas D.. No especifíca;Fil: Ridruejo, Ezequiel. Universidad Austral; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. CEMIC-CONICET. Centro de Educaciones Médicas e Investigaciones Clínicas "Norberto Quirno". CEMIC-CONICET; ArgentinaFil: Wahlin, Staffan. No especifíca

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks