The relationship between irrigation-induced electrical loads and antecedent weather conditions in Tasmania, Australia

Over the past decade in Australia, there has been a general trend towards the introduction of electrical motors to operate irrigation pumps. While electrical motors provide many advantages over the alternatives, electrical loads can aggregate in some areas to become large peaks, which challenge the existing electrical distribution networks. This is especially true during extreme hot or dry periods, when irrigators collectively demand significant electrical resources at the same time. While there is an inherent link between weather conditions and the amount of electricity used for irrigation, this relationship is poorly understood. Previous studies have either focused on localised data related to concurrent temperature, rainfall and soil moisture, or they have annualised summaries over large areas. In this study, we compare intensive irrigation periods with the drought factor at a case study irrigation scheme in Tasmania, Australia, finding a strong relationship between electrical load and periods when the drought factor is > 6. This relatively simple relationship may be useful for managers of electricity supply and distribution, managers of water resources, and irrigators, as it may be used to minimise the risk of exceeding the capacity of the electricity network, improve water availability and optimise irrigation scheduling

Heatwave and health impact research : a global review

Background Observed increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwave events, together with the projected acceleration of these events worldwide, has led to a rapid expansion in research on the health impacts of extreme heat. Objective To examine how research on heatwaves and their health-related impact is distributed globally. Methods A systematic review was undertaken. Four online databases were searched for articles examining links between specific historical heatwave events and their impact on mortality or morbidity. The locations of these events were mapped at a global scale, and compared to other known characteristics that influence heat-related illness and death. Results When examining the location of heatwave and health impact research worldwide, studies were concentrated on mid-latitude, high-income countries of low- to medium-population density. Regions projected to experience the most extreme heatwaves in the future were not represented. Furthermore, the majority of studies examined mortality as a key indicator of population-wide impact, rather than the more sensitive indicator of morbidity. Conclusion While global heatwave and health impact research is prolific in some regions, the global population most at risk of death and illness from extreme heat is under-represented. Heatwave and health impact research is needed in regions where this impact is expected to be most severe

The value of local heatwave impact assessment : a case-crossover analysis of hospital emergency department presentations in Tasmania, Australia

Heatwaves have been identified as a threat to human health, with this impact projected to rise in a warming climate. Gaps in local knowledge can potentially undermine appropriate policy and preparedness actions. Using a case-crossover methodology, we examined the impact of heatwave events on hospital emergency department (ED) presentations in the two most populous regions of Tasmania, Australia, from 2008–2016. Using conditional logistic regression, we analyzed the relationship between ED presentations and severe/extreme heatwaves for the whole population, specific demographics including age, gender and socio-economic advantage, and diagnostic conditions that are known to be impacted in high temperatures. ED presentations increased by 5% (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01–1.09) across the whole population, by 13% (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.24) for children 15 years and under, and by 19% (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04–1.36) for children 5 years and under. A less precise association in the same direction was found for those over 65 years. For diagnostic subgroups, non-significant increases in ED presentations were observed for asthma, diabetes, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation. These findings may assist ED surge capacity planning and public health preparedness and response activities for heatwave events in Tasmania, highlighting the importance of using local research to inform local practice

Investigating the effects of APSIM model configuration on model outputs across different environments

IntroductionSoil type plays a major role in nutrient dynamics and soil water which impacts crop growth and yield. The influence of soil characteristics on crop growth is usually evaluated through field experimentation (in the short term) and through crop-soil modelling (in the long-term). However, there has been limited research which has looked at the effect of model structural uncertainty of model outputs in different soil types.MethodsTo analyze the impact of soil inputs on model structural uncertainty, we developed eight model structures (a combination of two crop models, two soil water models and two irrigation models) within the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) across three soil types (Ferralsols, Alisols and Chernozems). By decomposing the mean proportion of variance and simulated values of the model outputs (yield, irrigation, drainage, nitrogen leaching and partial gross margin) we identified the influence of soil type on the magnitude of model structural uncertainty.ResultsFor all soil types, crop model was the most significant source of structural uncertainty, contributing >60% to variability for most modelled variables, except irrigation demand which was dominated by the choice of irrigation model applied. Relative to first order interactions, there were minimal (<12%) contributions to uncertainty from the second order interactions (i.e., inter-model components). We found that a higher mean proportion of variance does not necessarily imply a high magnitude of uncertainty in actual values. Despite the significant impact of the choice of crop model on yield and PGM variance (contributing over 90%), the small standard deviations in simulated yield (ranging from 0.2 to 1 t ha-1) and PGM (ranging from 50.6 to 374.4 USD ha-1) compared to the mean values (yield: 14.6 t ha-1, PGM: 4901 USD ha-1) indicate relatively low actual uncertainty in the values. Similarly, the choice of irrigation model had a contribution of over 45% to variance, but the relatively small standard deviations ranging from 11 to 33.3 mm compared to the overall mean irrigation of 500 mm suggest low actual uncertainty in the values. In contrast, for the environmental variables- drainage and nitrogen leaching, the choice of crop model had contributions of more than 60% and 70% respectively, yet the relatively large standard deviations ranging from 7.1 to 30.6 mm and 0.6 to 7.7 kg ha-1 respectively, compared to the overall mean values of drainage (44.4 mm) and nitrogen leaching (3.2 kg ha-1), indicate significant actual uncertainty.DiscussionWe identified the need to include not only fractional variance of model uncertainty, but also magnitude of the contribution in measured units (e.g. t ha-1, mm, kg ha-1, USD ha-1) for crop model uncertainty assessments to provide more useful agronomic or policy decision-making information. The findings of this study highlight the sensitivity of agricultural models to the impacts of moisture availability, suggesting that it is important to give more attention to structural uncertainty when modelling dry/wet conditions depending on the output analyzed

A First Global Oceanic Compilation of Observational Dissolved Aluminum Data With Regional Statistical Data Treatment

Large national and international observational efforts over recent decades have provided extensive and invaluable datasets of a range of ocean variables. Compiled large datasets, structured, or unstructured, are a powerful tool that allow scientists to access and synthesize data collected over large spatial and temporal scales. The data treatment approaches for any element in the ocean could lead to new global perspectives of their distribution patterns and to a better understanding of large-scale oceanic processes and their impact on other biogeochemical cycles, which may not be evident otherwise. Ocean chemistry Big Data analysis may not just be limited to distribution patterns, but may be used to assess how sampling efforts and analytical methodologies can be improved. Furthermore, a systematic global scale assessment of data is important to evaluate the gaps in knowledge and to provide avenues for future research. In this context, here we provide an extensive compilation of oceanic aluminum (Al) concentration data from global ocean basins, including data available in the GEOTRACES Intermediate Data product (Schlitzer et al., 2018), but also thus far unpublished data

Biogeochemical iron budgets of the Southern Ocean south of Australia : decoupling of iron and nutrient cycles in the subantarctic zone by the summertime supply

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23 (2009): GB4034, doi:10.1029/2009GB003500.Climate change is projected to significantly alter the delivery (stratification, boundary currents, aridification of landmasses, glacial melt) of iron to the Southern Ocean. We report the most comprehensive suite of biogeochemical iron budgets to date for three contrasting sites in subantarctic and polar frontal waters south of Australia. Distinct regional environments were responsible for differences in the mode and strength of iron supply mechanisms, with higher iron stocks and fluxes observed in surface northern subantarctic waters, where atmospheric iron fluxes were greater. Subsurface waters southeast of Tasmania were also enriched with particulate iron, manganese and aluminum, indicative of a strong advective source from shelf sediments. Subantarctic phytoplankton blooms are thus driven by both seasonal iron supply from southward advection of subtropical waters and by wind-blown dust deposition, resulting in a strong decoupling of iron and nutrient cycles. We discuss the broader global significance our iron budgets for other ocean regions sensitive to climate-driven changes in iron supply.T.W. was supported by a BDI grant from CNRS and Région PACA, by CNRS PICS project 3604, and by the “Soutien à la mer” CSOA CNRS-INSU. P.W.B. was supported by the New Zealand FRST Coasts and Oceans OBI. This research was supported by the Australian Government Cooperative Research Centres Programme through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC (ACE CRC) and Australian Antarctic Science project 2720

The GEOTRACES Intermediate Data Product 2014

The GEOTRACES Intermediate Data Product 2014 (IDP2014) is the first publicly available data product of the international GEOTRACES programme, and contains data measured and quality controlled before the end of 2013. It consists of two parts: (1) a compilation of digital data for more than 200 trace elements and isotopes (TEIs) as well as classical hydrographic parameters, and (2) the eGEOTRACES Electronic Atlas providing a strongly inter-linked on-line atlas including more than 300 section plots and 90 animated 3D scenes. The IDP2014 covers the Atlantic, Arctic, and Indian oceans, exhibiting highest data density in the Atlantic. The TEI data in the IDP2014 are quality controlled by careful assessment of intercalibration results and multi-laboratory data comparisons at cross-over stations. The digital data are provided in several formats, including ASCII spreadsheet, Excel spreadsheet, netCDF, and Ocean Data View collection. In addition to the actual data values the IDP2014 also contains data quality flags and 1-? data error values where available. Quality flags and error values are useful for data filtering. Metadata about data originators, analytical methods and original publications related to the data are linked to the data in an easily accessible way. The eGEOTRACES Electronic Atlas is the visual representation of the IDP2014 data providing section plots and a new kind of animated 3D scenes. The basin-wide 3D scenes allow for viewing of data from many cruises at the same time, thereby providing quick overviews of large-scale tracer distributions. In addition, the 3D scenes provide geographical and bathymetric context that is crucial for the interpretation and assessment of observed tracer plumes, as well as for making inferences about controlling processes

Evaluating the Risk of Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma: Lessons from Australia

Epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETA) is an emerging public health threat in Australia, highlighted by the 2016 event in Melbourne, Victoria, that overwhelmed health services and caused loss of life. However, there is limited understanding of the regional variations in risk. We evaluated the public health risk of ETA in the nearby state of Tasmania by quantifying the frequency of potential ETA episodes and applying a standardized natural disaster risk assessment framework. Using a case–control approach, we analyzed emergency presentations in Tasmania’s public hospitals from 2002 to 2017. Cases were defined as days when asthma presentations exceeded four standard deviations from the mean, and controls as days when asthma presentations were less than one standard deviation from the mean. Four controls were randomly selected for each case. Independently, a meteorologist identified the dates of potential high-risk thunderstorm events. No case days coincided with thunderstorms during the study period. ETA was assessed as a very low risk to the Tasmanian population, with these findings informing risk prioritization and resource allocation. This approach may be scaled and applied in other settings to determine local ETA risk. Furthermore, the identification of hazards using this method allows for critical analysis of existing public health systems

Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events

The interaction of gradual climate trends and extreme weather events since the turn of the century has triggered complex and, in some cases, catastrophic ecological responses around the world. We illustrate this using Australian examples within a press-pulse framework. Despite the Australian biota being adapted to high natural climate variability, recent combinations of climatic presses and pulses have led to population collapses, loss of relictual communities and shifts into novel ecosystems. These changes have been sudden and unpredictable, and may represent permanent transitions to new ecosystem states without adaptive management interventions. The press-pulse framework helps illuminate biological responses to climate change, grounds debate about suitable management interventions and highlights possible consequences of (non-) intervention.This paper is the result of a workshop on climate variability and biodiversity (past, present, future), funded by The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) and organized by N. Roslyn. D. Rosauer participated in the workshop