Camelina Oil as a Promising Substrate for mcl-PHA Production in Pseudomonas sp. Cultures

Background and objective: Polyhydroxyalkanoates are biodegradable polyesters synthesized by some prokaryotic organisms from renewable sources. Medium-chain-length Polyhydroxyalkanoates show interesting properties as elastic and adhesive specialty polymers. Medium-chain-length Polyhydroxyalkanoates producers such as Pseudomonas sp. have demonstrated high yields on fats and oils. Camelina sativa is non-food chain competing crop, whose seed contain about 43% (w w-1) oil in dry matter with about 90% (w w-1) of unsaturated fatty acids. Camelina oil was for the first time tested for the production of medium-chainlength Polyhydroxyalkanoates by different Pseudomonas strains.Material and methods: The production of Polyhydroxyalkanoate was evaluated in a nitrogen-limited minimal medium supplemented with crude Camelina oil or saponified oil to compare the production capability of Pseudomonas sp. strains. A phosphates-limited medium was used to optimize polyhydroxyalkanoate production in fed-batch assays. Experiments were carried out by duplicates.Results and conclusion: Pseudomonas resinovorans was used for direct fermentation of Camelina oil without prior hydrolysis. A first approach to process development in bioreactor has provided up to 40% (w w-1) polymer content, matching highest medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoates titer reported from plant oils (13.2 g l-1). Camelina oil was shown to be a suitable substrate for production of medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoates. This non-food vegetable oil gave good results for Pseudomonas resinovorans DSM 21078 without any pre-treatment.Conflict of interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest

Toward Value-Based Healthcare through Interactive Process Mining in Emergency Rooms: The Stroke Case

[EN] The application of Value-based Healthcare requires not only the identification of key processes in the clinical domain but also an adequate analysis of the value chain delivered to the patient. Data Science and Big Data approaches are technologies that enable the creation of accurate systems that model reality. However, classical Data Mining techniques are presented by professionals as black boxes. This evokes a lack of trust in those techniques in the medical domain. Process Mining technologies are human-understandable Data Science tools that can fill this gap to support the application of Value-Based Healthcare in real domains. The aim of this paper is to perform an analysis of the ways in which Process Mining techniques can support health professionals in the application of Value-Based Technologies. For this purpose, we explored these techniques by analyzing emergency processes and applying the critical timing of Stroke treatment and a Question-Driven methodology. To demonstrate the possibilities of Process Mining in the characterization of the emergency process, we used a real log with 9046 emergency episodes from 2145 stroke patients that occurred from January 2010 to June 2017. Our results demonstrate how Process Mining technology can highlight the differences between the flow of stroke patients compared with that of other patients in an emergency. Further, we show that support for health professionals can be provided by improving their understanding of these techniques and enhancing the quality of care.This research was funded by Hospital General de Valencia thanks to the LOPEZ TRIGO 2017 AWARD and by the CONICYT grant REDI 170136 Project. The APC was funded by the APE/2019/007 (D.O.G.V. 8355/06.08.2018 Annex XIII).Ibáñez Sánchez, G.; Fernández Llatas, C.; Martinez-Millana, A.; Celda, A.; Mandingorra, J.; Aparici-Tortajada, L.; Valero Ramon, Z.... (2019). Toward Value-Based Healthcare through Interactive Process Mining in Emergency Rooms: The Stroke Case. International Journal of Environmental research and Public Health. 16(10):1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16101783S1221610Berwick, D. M., Nolan, T. W., & Whittington, J. (2008). The Triple Aim: Care, Health, And Cost. Health Affairs, 27(3), 759-769. doi:10.1377/hlthaff.27.3.759Porter, M. E. (2010). What Is Value in Health Care? New England Journal of Medicine, 363(26), 2477-2481. doi:10.1056/nejmp1011024Mamlin, B. W., & Tierney, W. M. (2016). The Promise of Information and Communication Technology in Healthcare: Extracting Value From the Chaos. The American Journal of the Medical Sciences, 351(1), 59-68. doi:10.1016/j.amjms.2015.10.015Murdoch, T. B., & Detsky, A. S. (2013). The Inevitable Application of Big Data to Health Care. JAMA, 309(13), 1351. doi:10.1001/jama.2013.393Bates, D. W., Saria, S., Ohno-Machado, L., Shah, A., & Escobar, G. (2014). Big Data In Health Care: Using Analytics To Identify And Manage High-Risk And High-Cost Patients. Health Affairs, 33(7), 1123-1131. doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2014.0041Fernández-Llatas, C., Meneu, T., Traver, V., & Benedi, J.-M. (2013). Applying Evidence-Based Medicine in Telehealth: An Interactive Pattern Recognition Approximation. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 10(11), 5671-5682. doi:10.3390/ijerph10115671Rojas, E., Sepúlveda, M., Munoz-Gama, J., Capurro, D., Traver, V., & Fernandez-Llatas, C. (2017). Question-Driven Methodology for Analyzing Emergency Room Processes Using Process Mining. Applied Sciences, 7(3), 302. doi:10.3390/app7030302Sackett, D. L., Rosenberg, W. M. C., Gray, J. A. M., Haynes, R. B., & Richardson, W. S. (1996). Evidence based medicine: what it is and what it isn’t. BMJ, 312(7023), 71-72. doi:10.1136/bmj.312.7023.71Is Evidence-Based Medicine Patient-Centered and Is Patient-Centered Care Evidence-Based? (2006). 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Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 61, 224-236. doi:10.1016/j.jbi.2016.04.007Fernandez-Llatas, C., Lizondo, A., Monton, E., Benedi, J.-M., & Traver, V. (2015). Process Mining Methodology for Health Process Tracking Using Real-Time Indoor Location Systems. Sensors, 15(12), 29821-29840. doi:10.3390/s151229769Baker, K., Dunwoodie, E., Jones, R. G., Newsham, A., Johnson, O., Price, C. P., … Hall, G. (2017). Process mining routinely collected electronic health records to define real-life clinical pathways during chemotherapy. International Journal of Medical Informatics, 103, 32-41. doi:10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2017.03.011Rebuge, Á., & Ferreira, D. R. (2012). Business process analysis in healthcare environments: A methodology based on process mining. Information Systems, 37(2), 99-116. doi:10.1016/j.is.2011.01.003Partington, A., Wynn, M., Suriadi, S., Ouyang, C., & Karnon, J. (2015). Process Mining for Clinical Processes. ACM Transactions on Management Information Systems, 5(4), 1-18. doi:10.1145/2629446Storm-Versloot, M. N., Ubbink, D. T., Kappelhof, J., & Luitse, J. S. K. (2011). Comparison of an Informally Structured Triage System, the Emergency Severity Index, and the Manchester Triage System to Distinguish Patient Priority in the Emergency Department. Academic Emergency Medicine, 18(8), 822-829. doi:10.1111/j.1553-2712.2011.01122.xFeigin, V. L., Roth, G. A., Naghavi, M., Parmar, P., Krishnamurthi, R., Chugh, S., … Forouzanfar, M. H. (2016). Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet Neurology, 15(9), 913-924. doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(16)30073-4Howard, G., & Goff, D. C. (2012). Population shifts and the future of stroke: forecasts of the future burden of stroke. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1268(1), 14-20. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2012.06665.xGustavsson, A., Svensson, M., Jacobi, F., Allgulander, C., Alonso, J., Beghi, E., … Olesen, J. (2011). Cost of disorders of the brain in Europe 2010. European Neuropsychopharmacology, 21(10), 718-779. doi:10.1016/j.euroneuro.2011.08.008Alberts, M. J. (2000). Recommendations for the Establishment of Primary Stroke Centers. JAMA, 283(23), 3102. doi:10.1001/jama.283.23.3102Conca, T., Saint-Pierre, C., Herskovic, V., Sepúlveda, M., Capurro, D., Prieto, F., & Fernandez-Llatas, C. (2018). Multidisciplinary Collaboration in the Treatment of Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in Primary Care: Analysis Using Process Mining. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 20(4), e127. doi:10.2196/jmir.8884Chavalarias, D., Wallach, J. D., Li, A. H. T., & Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2016). Evolution of ReportingPValues in the Biomedical Literature, 1990-2015. JAMA, 315(11), 1141. doi:10.1001/jama.2016.195

Low birth weight as a potential risk factor for severe COVID-19 in adults

The identification of factors predisposing to severe COVID-19 in young adults remains partially characterized. Low birth weight (LBW) alters cardiovascular and lung development and predisposes to adult disease. We hypothesized that LBW is a risk factor for severe COVID-19 in non-elderly subjects. We analyzed a prospective cohort of 397 patients (18-70 years) with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection attended in a tertiary hospital, where 15% required admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Perinatal and current potentially predictive variables were obtained from all patients and LBW was defined as birth weight ≤ 2.500 g. Age (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.04 [1-1.07], P = 0.012), male sex (aOR 3.39 [1.72-6.67], P < 0.001), hypertension (aOR 3.37 [1.69-6.72], P = 0.001), and LBW (aOR 3.61 [1.55-8.43], P = 0.003) independently predicted admission to ICU. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of this model was 0.79 [95% CI, 0.74-0.85], with positive and negative predictive values of 29.1% and 97.6% respectively. Results were reproduced in an independent cohort, from a web-based survey in 1822 subjects who self-reported laboratory-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection, where 46 patients (2.5%) needed ICU admission (AUC 0.74 [95% CI 0.68-0.81]). LBW seems to be an independent risk factor for severe COVID-19 in non-elderly adults and might improve the performance of risk stratification algorithms

First-in-human PeriCord cardiac bioimplant : scalability and GMP manufacturing of an allogeneic engineered tissue graft

Altres ajuts: La Marató de TV3 Foundation, Government of Catalonia, Catalan Society of Cardiology, "La Caixa" Banking Foundation, Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Institute of Health Carlos III, and the European Regional Development Fund.Small cardiac tissue engineering constructs show promise for limiting post-infarct sequelae in animal models. This study sought to scale-up a 2-cm 2 preclinical construct into a human-size advanced therapy medicinal product (ATMP; PeriCord), and to test it in a first-in-human implantation. The PeriCord is a clinical-size (12-16 cm 2) decellularised pericardial matrix colonised with human viable Wharton's jelly-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (WJ-MSCs). WJ-MSCs expanded following good manufacturing practices (GMP) met safety and quality standards regarding the number of cumulative population doublings, genomic stability, and sterility. Human decellularised pericardial scaffolds were tested for DNA content, matrix stiffness, pore size, and absence of microbiological growth. PeriCord implantation was surgically performed on a large non-revascularisable scar in the inferior wall of a 63-year-old male patient. Coronary artery bypass grafting was concomitantly performed in the non-infarcted area. At implantation, the 16-cm 2 pericardial scaffold contained 12·5 × 10 6 viable WJ-MSCs (85·4% cell viability; <0·51 endotoxin units (EU)/mL). Intraoperative PeriCord delivery was expeditious, and secured with surgical glue. The post-operative course showed non-adverse reaction to the PeriCord, without requiring host immunosuppression. The three-month clinical follow-up was uneventful, and three-month cardiac magnetic resonance imaging showed ~9% reduction in scar mass in the treated area. This preliminary report describes the development of a scalable clinical-size allogeneic PeriCord cardiac bioimplant, and its first-in-human implantation. La Marató de TV3 Foundation, Government of Catalonia, Catalan Society of Cardiology, "La Caixa" Banking Foundation, Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Institute of Health Carlos III, and the European Regional Development Fund

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97\ub71 (95% UI 95\ub78-98\ub71) in Iceland, followed by 96\ub76 (94\ub79-97\ub79) in Norway and 96\ub71 (94\ub75-97\ub73) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18\ub76 (13\ub71-24\ub74) in the Central African Republic, 19\ub70 (14\ub73-23\ub77) in Somalia, and 23\ub74 (20\ub72-26\ub78) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91\ub75 (89\ub71-93\ub76) in Beijing to 48\ub70 (43\ub74-53\ub72) in Tibet (a 43\ub75-point difference), while India saw a 30\ub78-point disparity, from 64\ub78 (59\ub76-68\ub78) in Goa to 34\ub70 (30\ub73-38\ub71) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4\ub78-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20\ub79-point to 17\ub70-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17\ub72-point to 20\ub74-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation