International Quality-Controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) v0.1: The Temperature Uncertainty Specification

Ocean temperature observations are crucial for a host of climate research and forecasting activities, such as climate monitoring, ocean reanalysis and state estimation, seasonal-to-decadal forecasts, and ocean forecasting. For all of these applications, it is crucial to understand the uncertainty attached to each of the observations, accounting for changes in instrument technology and observing practices over time. Here, we describe the rationale behind the uncertainty specification provided for all in situ ocean temperature observations in the International Quality-controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) v0.1, a value-added data product served alongside the World Ocean Database (WOD). We collected information from manufacturer specifications and other publications, providing the end user with uncertainty estimates based mainly on instrument type, along with extant auxiliary information such as calibration and collection method. The provision of a consistent set of observation uncertainties will provide a more complete understanding of historical ocean observations used to examine the changing environment. Moving forward, IQuOD will continue to work with the ocean observation, data assimilation and ocean climate communities to further refine uncertainty quantification. We encourage submissions of metadata and information about historical practices to the IQuOD project and WOD

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results in unprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems and human systems. The Earth heat inventory provides a measure of the Earth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifying how much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, as well as where the heat is stored. Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulate heat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020. This is equivalent to a heating rate (i.e., the EEI) of 0.48±0.1 W m−2. The majority, about 89 %, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6 % on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % available for melting the cryosphere. Over the most recent period (2006–2020), the EEI amounts to 0.76±0.2 W m−2. The Earth energy imbalance is the most fundamental global climate indicator that the scientific community and the public can use as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing anthropogenic climate change under control. Moreover, this indicator is highly complementary to other established ones like global mean surface temperature as it represents a robust measure of the rate of climate change and its future commitment. We call for an implementation of the Earth energy imbalance into the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based on best available science. The Earth heat inventory in this study, updated from von Schuckmann et al. (2020), is underpinned by worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration and demonstrates the critical importance of concerted international efforts for climate change monitoring and community-based recommendations and we also call for urgently needed actions for enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing, and calibrating efforts to assure improved and long-term monitoring capacity of the global climate observing system. The data for the Earth heat inventory are publicly available, and more details are provided in Table 4

Measuring global ocean heat content to estimate the earth energy imbalance

The energy radiated by the Earth toward space does not compensate the incoming radiation from the Sun leading to a small positive energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (0.4–1 Wm–2). This imbalance is coined Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI). It is mostly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is driving the current warming of the planet. Precise monitoring of EEI is critical to assess the current status of climate change and the future evolution of climate. But the monitoring of EEI is challenging as EEI is two orders of magnitude smaller than the radiation fluxes in and out of the Earth system. Over 93% of the excess energy that is gained by the Earth in response to the positive EEI accumulates into the ocean in the form of heat. This accumulation of heat can be tracked with the ocean observing system such that today, the monitoring of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and its long-term change provide the most efficient approach to estimate EEI. In this community paper we review the current four state-of-the-art methods to estimate global OHC changes and evaluate their relevance to derive EEI estimates on different time scales. These four methods make use of: (1) direct observations of in situ temperature; (2) satellite-based measurements of the ocean surface net heat fluxes; (3) satellite-based estimates of the thermal expansion of the ocean and (4) ocean reanalyses that assimilate observations from both satellite and in situ instruments. For each method we review the potential and the uncertainty of the method to estimate global OHC changes. We also analyze gaps in the current capability of each method and identify ways of progress for the future to fulfill the requirements of EEI monitoring. Achieving the observation of EEI with sufficient accuracy will depend on merging the remote sensing techniques with in situ measurements of key variables as an integral part of the Ocean Observing System

Heat stored in the Earth system:where does the energy go?

Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020)

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.HORIZON EUROPE Framework ProgrammeH2020 European Research CouncilResearch Councils UKEngineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilPeer Reviewe

Global Oceans

Global Oceans is one chapter from the State of the Climate in 2019 annual report and is avail-able from https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0105.1. Compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate in 2019 is based on contr1ibutions from scien-tists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instru-ments located on land, water, ice, and in space. The full report is available from https://doi.org /10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Global Oceans, BAMS State of the Climate in 2021, Chapter 3

Patterns of variability in ocean properties are often closely related to large-scale climate pattern indices, and 2021 is no exception. The year 2021 started and ended with La Niña conditions, charmingly dubbed a “double-dip” La Niña. Hence, stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds in the tropical south Pacific drove westward surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content in the eastern tropical Pacific; increased sea level, upper ocean heat content, and salinity in the western tropical Pacific; resulted in a rim of anomalously high chlorophyll-a (Chla) on the poleward and westward edges of the anomalously cold SST wedge in the eastern equatorial Pacific; and increased precipitation over the Maritime Continent. The Pacific decadal oscillation remained strongly in a negative phase in 2021, with negative SST and upper ocean heat content anomalies around the eastern and equatorial edges of the North Pacific and positive anomalies in the center associated with low Chla anomalies. The South Pacific exhibited similar patterns. Fresh anomalies in the northeastern Pacific shifted towards the west coast of North America. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) was weakly negative in 2021, with small positive SST anomalies in the east and nearly-average anomalies in the west. Nonetheless, upper ocean heat content was anomalously high in the west and lower in the east, with anomalously high freshwater flux and low sea surface salinities (SSS) in the east, and the opposite pattern in the west, as might be expected during a negative phase of that climate index. In the Atlantic, the only substantial cold anomaly in SST and upper ocean heat content persisted east of Greenland in 2021, where SSS was also low, all despite the weak winds and strong surface heat flux anomalies into the ocean expected during a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These anomalies held throughout much of 2021. An Atlantic and Benguela Niño were both evident, with above-average SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the west coast of southern Africa. Over much of the rest of the Atlantic, SSTs, upper ocean heat content, and sea level anomalies were above average. Anthropogenic climate change involves long-term trends, as this year’s chapter sidebars emphasize. The sidebars relate some of the latest IPCC ocean-related assessments (including carbon, the section on which is taking a hiatus from our report this year). This chapter estimates that SST increased at a rate of 0.16–0.19°C decade−1 from 2000 to 2021, 0–2000-m ocean heat content warmed by 0.57–0.73 W m−2 (applied over Earth’s surface area) from 1993 to 2021, and global mean sea level increased at a rate of 3.4 ± 0.4 mm yr−1 from 1993 to 2021. Global mean SST, which is more subject to interannual variations than ocean heat content and sea level, with values typically reduced during La Niña, was ~0.1°C lower in 2021 than in 2020. However, from 2020 to 2021, annual average ocean heat content from 0 to 2000 dbar increased at a rate of ~0.95 W m−2, and global sea level increased by ~4.9 mm. Both were the highest on record in 2021, and with year-on-year increases substantially exceeding their trend rates of recent decades

Historical ocean heat uptake in two pairs of CMIP6 models: global and regional perspectives

Ocean heat content (OHC) is one of the most relevant metrics tracking the current global heating. Therefore, simulated OHC time series are a cornerstone for assessing the scientific performance of Earth System models and global climate models. Here we present a detailed analysis of OHC change in simulations of the historical climate (1850-2014) performed with two pairs of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) models: UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL; and CNRM-ESM2-1 and CNRM-CM6-1. The small number of models enables us to analyse OHC change globally and for individual ocean basins, making use of a novel ensemble of observational products. For the top 700 m of the global ocean, the two CNRM models reproduce the observed OHC change since the 1960s closely. The two UK models (UKESM1.0-LL and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL) compensate a lack of warming in the 0-700 m layer in the 1970s and 1980s with warming below 2000 m. The observed warming between 700 and 2000 m is substantially underestimated by all models. An increased relevance for ocean heat uptake in the Atlantic after 1991 – suggested by observations – is picked up by the UK models but less so by the CNRM models, probably related to an AMOC strengthening in the UK models. The regional ocean heat uptake characteristics differ even though all four models share the same ocean component (NEMO ORCA1). Differences in the simulated global, full depth OHC time series can be attributed to differences in the models’ total effective radiative forcing

World Ocean Database XBT observations snapshot

The World Ocean Database (WOD) is world's largest collection of uniformly formatted, quality controlled, publicly available ocean profile data. This dataset is a snapshot of the XBT observations which have been preprocessed for use in a machine learning pipeline. The data is organised by year in CSV files, covering 1966-2015. This dataset does not include the actual temperature and depth profiles, as this dataset was focused on a project to improve the metadata