The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Extensive molecular tinkering in the evolution of the membrane attachment mode of the Rheb GTPase

Rheb is a conserved and widespread Ras-like GTPase involved in cell growth regulation mediated by the (m)TORC1 kinase complex and implicated in tumourigenesis in humans. Rheb function depends on its association with membranes via prenylated C-terminus, a mechanism shared with many other eukaryotic GTPases. Strikingly, our analysis of a phylogenetically rich sample of Rheb sequences revealed that in multiple lineages this canonical and ancestral membrane attachment mode has been variously altered. The modifications include: (1) accretion to the N-terminus of two different phosphatidylinositol 3-phosphate-binding domains, PX in Cryptista (the fusion being the first proposed synapomorphy of this clade), and FYVE in Euglenozoa and the related undescribed flagellate SRT308; (2) acquisition of lipidic modifications of the N-terminal region, namely myristoylation and/or S-palmitoylation in seven different protist lineages; (3) acquisition of S-palmitoylation in the hypervariable C-terminal region of Rheb in apusomonads, convergently to some other Ras family proteins; (4) replacement of the C-terminal prenylation motif with four transmembrane segments in a novel Rheb paralog in the SAR clade; (5) loss of an evident C-terminal membrane attachment mechanism in Tremellomycetes and some Rheb paralogs of Euglenozoa. Rheb evolution is thus surprisingly dynamic and presents a spectacular example of molecular tinkering

Canopy-scale flux measurements and bottom-up emission estimates of volatile organic compounds from a mixed oak and hornbeam forest in northern Italy

This paper reports the fluxes and mixing ratios of biogenically emitted volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) 4aEuro-m above a mixed oak and hornbeam forest in northern Italy. Fluxes of methanol, acetaldehyde, isoprene, methyl vinyl ketoneaEuro-+aEuro-methacrolein, methyl ethyl ketone and monoterpenes were obtained using both a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) and a proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) together with the methods of virtual disjunct eddy covariance (using PTR-MS) and eddy covariance (using PTR-ToF-MS). Isoprene was the dominant emitted compound with a mean daytime flux of 1.9aEuro-mgaEuro-m(-2)aEuro-h(-1). Mixing ratios, recorded 4aEuro-m above the canopy, were dominated by methanol with a mean value of 6.2aEuro-ppbv over the 28-day measurement period. Comparison of isoprene fluxes calculated using the PTR-MS and PTR-ToF-MS showed very good agreement while comparison of the monoterpene fluxes suggested a slight over estimation of the flux by the PTR-MS. A basal isoprene emission rate for the forest of 1.7aEuro-mgaEuro-m(-2)aEuro-h(-1) was calculated using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) isoprene emission algorithms (Guenther et al., 2006). A detailed tree-species distribution map for the site enabled the leaf-level emission of isoprene and monoterpenes recorded using gas-chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to be scaled up to produce a bottom-up canopy-scale flux. This was compared with the top-down canopy-scale flux obtained by measurements. For monoterpenes, the two estimates were closely correlated and this correlation improved when the plant-species composition in the individual flux footprint was taken into account. However, the bottom-up approach significantly underestimated the isoprene flux, compared with the top-down measurements, suggesting that the leaf-level measurements were not representative of actual emission rates.Peer reviewe

Comparison of embedded and added motor imagery training in patients after stroke: Study protocol of a randomised controlled pilot trial using a mixed methods approach

Copyright @ 2009 Schuster et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: Two different approaches have been adopted when applying motor imagery (MI) to stroke patients. MI can be conducted either added to conventional physiotherapy or integrated within therapy sessions. The proposed study aims to compare the efficacy of embedded MI to an added MI intervention. Evidence from pilot studies reported in the literature suggests that both approaches can improve performance of a complex motor skill involving whole body movements, however, it remains to be demonstrated, which is the more effective one.Methods/Design: A single blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a pre-post intervention design will be carried out. The study design includes two experimental groups and a control group (CG). Both experimental groups (EG1, EG2) will receive physical practice of a clinical relevant motor task ('Going down, laying on the floor, and getting up again') over a two week intervention period: EG1 with embedded MI training, EG2 with MI training added after physiotherapy. The CG will receive standard physiotherapy intervention and an additional control intervention not related to MI.The primary study outcome is the time difference to perform the task from pre to post-intervention. Secondary outcomes include level of help needed, stages of motor task completion, degree of motor impairment, balance ability, fear of falling measure, motivation score, and motor imagery ability score. Four data collection points are proposed: twice during baseline phase, once following the intervention period, and once after a two week follow up. A nested qualitative part should add an important insight into patients' experience and attitudes towards MI. Semi-structured interviews of six to ten patients, who participate in the RCT, will be conducted to investigate patients' previous experience with MI and their expectations towards the MI intervention in the study. Patients will be interviewed prior and after the intervention period.Discussion: Results will determine whether embedded MI is superior to added MI. Findings of the semi-structured interviews will help to integrate patient's expectations of MI interventions in the design of research studies to improve practical applicability using MI as an adjunct therapy technique

Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. We used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by similar to 17 +/- 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 +/- 16 and 5 +/- 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH4. At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH4 emissions.Peer reviewe

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes:Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of wetland methane fluxes measured by eddy covariance require gap-filling to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for wetland methane fluxes, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. This study synthesizes results of different gap-filling methods systematically applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions and including all major wetland classes and two rice paddies. Procedures are proposed for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with realistic uncertainty estimates. Performance is compared between a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms. The conventional method achieved similar median performance as the machine learning models but was worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on wetland soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. The python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation is publicly available. This study outlines a modular and robust machine learning workflow and makes recommendations for, and evaluates an improved baseline of, methane gap-filling models that can be implemented in multi-site syntheses or standardized products from regional and global flux networks (e.g., FLUXNET)

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes : Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of wetland methane fluxes measured by eddy covariance require gap-filling to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for wetland methane fluxes, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. This study synthesizes results of different gap-filling methods systematically applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions and including all major wetland classes and two rice paddies. Procedures are proposed for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting halfhourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with realistic uncertainty estimates. Performance is compared between a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms. The conventional method achieved similar median performance as the machine learning models but was worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on wetland soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. The python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation is publicly available. This study outlines a modular and robust machine learning workflow and makes recommendations for, and evaluates an improved baseline of, methane gap-filling models that can be implemented in multi-site syntheses or standardized products from regional and global flux networks (e.g., FLUXNET).Peer reviewe