On the Multivariate Normal Hazard

AbstractIt is well known that the hazard rate of a univariate normal distribution is increasing. In this paper, we prove that the hazard gradient, in the case of general multivariate normal distribution, is increasing in the sense of Johnson and Kotz

The natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis in 781 children. A multicenter, international collaboration

There are limited data on the natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) in children. We aimed to describe the disease characteristics and long-term outcomes of pediatric PSC. We retrospectively collected all pediatric PSC cases from 36 participating institutions and conducted a survival analysis from the date of PSC diagnosis to dates of diagnosis of portal hypertensive or biliary complications, cholangiocarcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. We analyzed patients grouped by disease phenotype and laboratory studies at diagnosis to identify objective predictors of long-term outcome. We identified 781 patients, median age 12 years, with 4,277 person-years of follow-up; 33% with autoimmune hepatitis, 76% with inflammatory bowel disease, and 13% with small duct PSC. Portal hypertensive and biliary complications developed in 38% and 25%, respectively, after 10 years of disease. Once these complications developed, median survival with native liver was 2.8 and 3.5 years, respectively. Cholangiocarcinoma occurred in 1%. Overall event-free survival was 70% at 5 years and 53% at 10 years. Patient groups with the most elevated total bilirubin, gamma-glutamyltransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index at diagnosis had the worst outcomes. In multivariate analysis PSC-inflammatory bowel disease and small duct phenotypes were associated with favorable prognosis (hazard ratios 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.5-0.9, and 0.7, 95% confidence interval 0.5-0.96, respectively). Age, gender, and autoimmune hepatitis overlap did not impact long-term outcome. CONCLUSION: PSC has a chronic, progressive course in children, and nearly half of patients develop an adverse liver outcome after 10 years of disease; elevations in bilirubin, gamma-glutamyltransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index at diagnosis can identify patients at highest risk; small duct PSC and PSC-inflammatory bowel disease are more favorable disease phenotypes

Co-Administration of IL-1+IL-6+TNF-α with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infected Macrophages Vaccine Induces Better Protective T Cell Memory than BCG

BCG has been administered globally for more than 75 years, yet tuberculosis (TB) continues to kill more than 2 million people annually. Further, BCG protects childhood TB but is quite inefficient in adults. This indicates that BCG fails to induce long-term protection. Hence there is a need to explore alternative vaccination strategies that can stimulate enduring T cell memory response. Dendritic cell based vaccination has attained extensive popularity following their success in various malignancies. In our previous study, we have established a novel and unique vaccination strategy against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) and Salmonella typhimurium by utilizing infected macrophages (IM). In short-term experiments (30 days), substantial degree of protection was observed. However, remarkable difference was not observed in long-term studies (240 days) due to failure of the vaccine to generate long-lasting memory T cells. Hence, in the present study we employed T cell memory augmenting cytokines IL-1+IL-6+TNF-α and IL-7+IL-15 for the induction of the enhancement of long-term protection by the vaccine. We co-administered the M. tb infected macrophages vaccine with IL-1+IL-6+TNF-α (IM-1.6.α) and IL-7+IL-15 (IM-7.15). The mice were then rested for a reasonably large period (240 days) to study the bona fide T cell memory response before exposing them to aerosolized M. tb. IM-1.6.α but not IM-7.15 significantly improved memory T cell response against M. tb, as evidenced by recall responses of memory T cells, expansion of both central as well as effector memory CD4 and CD8 T cell pools, elicitation of mainly Th1 memory response, reduction in the mycobacterial load and alleviated lung pathology. Importantly, the protection induced by IM-1.6.α was significantly better than BCG. Thus, this study demonstrates that not only antigen-pulsed DCs can be successfully employed as vaccines against cancer and infectious diseases but also macrophages infected with M. tb can be utilized with great efficacy especially in protection against TB

Assessing the Validity of Adult-derived Prognostic Models for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Children

Background: Natural history models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are derived from adult patient data, but have never been validated in children. It is unclear how accurate such models are for children with PSC. Methods: We utilized the pediatric PSC consortium database to assess the Revised Mayo Clinic, Amsterdam-Oxford, and Boberg models. We calculated the risk stratum and predicted survival for each patient within each model using patient data at PSC diagnosis, and compared it with observed survival. We evaluated model fit using the c-statistic. Results: Model fit was good at 1 year (c-statistics 0.93, 0.87, 0.82) and fair at 10 years (0.78, 0.75, 0.69) in the Mayo, Boberg, and Amsterdam-Oxford models, respectively. The Mayo model correctly classified most children as low risk, whereas the Amsterdam-Oxford model incorrectly classified most as high risk. All of the models underestimated survival of patients classified as high risk. Albumin, bilirubin, AST, and platelets were most associated with outcomes. Autoimmune hepatitis was more prevalent in higher risk groups, and over-weighting of AST in these patients accounted for the observed versus predicted survival discrepancy. Conclusions: All 3 models offered good short-term discrimination of outcomes but only fair long-term discrimination. None of the models account for the high prevalence of features of autoimmune hepatitis overlap in children and the associated elevated aminotransferases. A pediatric-specific model is needed. AST, bilirubin, albumin, and platelets will be important predictors, but must be weighted to account for the unique features of PSC in children.Peer reviewe

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

On the crossings of reliability measures

The proportional hazards model has been extensively used in the literature to model failure time data. However, there are many practical situations where, in comparing two groups or treatments, the proportional hazard assumption is not satisfied. In fact, the two hazards cross at one point or even more than one point. Generally, the survival (reliability) data are analyzed by three reliability measures viz failure rate, the survival function and the mean residual life function and theoretically these measures are equivalent, i.e. knowledge of one implies the knowledge of others. In this paper we study the crossings of the survival functions and the mean residual life functions in case the two hazards cross at one or two points. It is shown that, in both the cases, the number of crossings do not exceed the number of crossings of the hazard functions. The location of these crossings is also examined in relation to the crossings of the hazard functions.Failure rates Survival functions Mean residual life functions

On the Multivariate Normal Hazard

It is well known that the hazard rate of a univariate normal distribution is increasing. In this paper, we prove that the hazard gradient, in the case of general multivariate normal distribution, is increasing in the sense of Johnson and Kotz.Multivariate normal distribution multivariate increasing hazard rate hazard gradient